Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 PM MST Fri Mar 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of low clouds and patchy fog will be
possible along the Mogollon Rim by early Tuesday morning. Breezy
and unsettled conditions are back Wednesday with the possibility
of another wet system by late Friday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Operational models continue to come into better
agreement concerning the weekend storm looking to impact much of
northern Arizona late Saturday and Sunday. A winter weather
advisory has been issued for snow for much of the Western Mogollon
Rim, Coconino Plateau, Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon Country, and
the Northeast Plateaus and Mesas.

Generally benign conditions Friday and Saturday morning will
become breezy as clouds increase ahead of the next weather system
Saturday afternoon. A quick moving transition will allow for
showers to develop from West to East Saturday afternoon and
evening. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall after
Midnight early Sunday morning with lingering showers expected
through Sunday afternoon. Snow levels should start out around 6000
feet and fall to around 5000 feet throughout this event.

By Sunday evening most areas should begin clearing allowing for
relatively cold overnight temperatures, especially for the high
country where snow accumulations will increase the efficiency of
radiative cooling.

Confidence is lowest over maximum snow totals, due to strong
dynamic lifting associated with this system, additional model runs
ahead of this system will hopefully allow for increased confidence
in snowfall and precipitation amounts.

After this system moves through, dry and warming conditions are
expected for much of next week. Towards the end of the week models
are beginning to hint at another system looking to impact the
region, but confidence remains low concerning any impacts with
this system at the moment.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the evening hours. Another round of
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible for KFLG-KINW-KPRC after 09z
Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building in over the southwest will
bring a period of mild conditions and mostly dry weather through

Wednesday through Saturday...






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