014
FXUS65 KFGZ 110453
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 PM MST Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue at least through
the weekend and into early next week. Moisture will be sparse, with
only isolated activity through the weekend, primarily over the
eastern portions of Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our ridge continues to flatten just a little bit and
retrograde westward into the coming weekend. This will continue to
cap our atmosphere and any moisture that may have a chance will be
driven southward by northerly streamlines. NBM guidance continues to
be driven by climo and we continue to tamp down PoPs, mainly in the
first few days. The bottom line, don`t expect very much for at least
the next 3-5 days, except for more heat. Some longer range guidance
indicates the possibility of an easterly wave and a weak s/wv trough
that may ramp up our activity for a few days, but confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 11/06Z through Saturday 12/06Z...VFR expected.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line after 18Z. Light and
variable winds, becoming SW-W 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after
16Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/06Z through Monday 14/06Z...VFR expected.
ISO/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on Saturday and
Sunday. W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts each day with light
and variable winds during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Hot and mostly dry.
Localized critical fire weather today in the Little Colorado River
Valley with low humidity and a few gusts over 35 mph. Winds from the
west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph elsewhere, becoming 10-15 mph
gusting 20-25 mph Friday and Saturday. Min RH is 5-10% north of the
Mogollon Rim, and 10-20% south of the Rim each day. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms along the higher terrain south of
Flagstaff on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot temperatures, but increasing
precipitation chances each day. Highest chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be over the higher terrain. Minimum
RH values will be between 10-20% each day, with winds out of the
west at 5-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected near
storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff