Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 170458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 PM MST Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will linger near the West Coast
through Friday. This will bring dry conditions and breezy
southwest winds during the afternoons. The strongest winds will
occur Thursday creating critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the area. High temperatures will be near or just above
seasonal averages. Limited moisture will bring slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms to far northern Arizona on Saturday.


.UPDATE...Clear skies cover Arizona this evening. Temperatures are
similar to what they were last evening. No significant changes
need to the forecast tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued by National/...Little change was made to
the forecast this afternoon. A low pressure system over central CA
will slowly push east toward the region through Friday. Typical
southwesterly breezes have developed this afternoon, and will
strengthen further on Thursday. Winds tomorrow will combine with
very dry conditions and critical fuels to result in critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the region. No changes were
made to the existing Red Flag Warning.

For Friday into the weekend, expect lighter winds with the
typical afternoon springtime breezes. Latest model guidance
continues to indicate enough boundary layer moisture north of
Flagstaff for some afternoon cloud buildups and a low chance of a
high-based shower or thunderstorm mainly on Saturday. Increased
precipitation chances slightly for Saturday, mostly fore the high
terrain across far northern AZ.

Another low pressure system is forecast to develop near the West
Coast early next week with the usual model variability in exact
location and timing. Warm conditions will continue, but increased
southwest winds and critical fire weather conditions are possible
during this timeframe.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will persist
through the next 24 hours with only a few high clouds. Expect light
winds less than 10 kts over night becoming southwest at 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 30 knots after 16Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry weather with near normal temperatures
across northern Arizona. Expect strong winds Thursday afternoon,
causing critical fire weather conditions to develop across a portion
of north central Arizona. Friday will be somewhat cooler with breezy
southwest winds.

Saturday through Monday...Dry weather will continue through the
weekend. Temperatures will warm Saturday through Monday to above
average. Generally light southwest winds over the weekend will
become breezy Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ107-




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