Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 140426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 PM MST Fri Apr 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through
Saturday morning. Expect warming temperatures through the weekend
with lighter winds on Saturday. Winds will become breezy out of
the southwest on Sunday. Another round of very strong southwest
winds is expected Monday with very dry conditions making
widespread critical fire weather likely across northern Arizona.


.DISCUSSION...A strong pressure gradient still remains over the
eastern part of the state behind the departing weather system.
This has led to continued gusty northerly winds into the evening
hours. These winds will continue overnight before ridging moves
into the region Saturday bringing lighter winds. Near normal
temperatures are expected Saturday before warming to around 10
degrees above normal Sunday. Latest model guidance continues to
indicate another round of very strong southwest winds on Monday
and into early Tuesday. Wind advisories/high wind watches will
likely be needed over the next few days in advance of this weather
system. Critical fire weather conditions can also be expected
early next week.


.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...Models and satellite show good
agreement with the ridge building over Arizona into Saturday and
the winds dropping off. The building ridge will give breezy
northeast winds, 20 to 25 mph, along and south of the Mogollon Rim
into Saturday morning. The ridge will bring clear skies, warming
temperatures and very dry conditions through the weekend. Breezy
southwest winds with gusts to 25 mph return Sunday afternoon with
the approach of the next trough.

Monday will be another windy day with very dry conditions due to
the trough to the north. Strong southwest winds, 30 to 40 mph with
gusts to 60 mph possible, are expected to cause Red Flag Warning
conditions (severe fire weather conditions). Mid and high clouds
will move in Sunday evening and push out of the area Tuesday
morning with the passing of the trough. There is only a slight
chance for precipitation Monday night from this system, mostly
over the Kaibab Plateau and along the Utah boarder.

A weak ridge builds in Tuesday and Wednesday before another deep
trough moves into the area Thursday bringing more strong winds,
but a better chance for precipitation across northern Arizona.
Currently, confidence is low for significant moisture from this
system as it is still far out, but confidence will increase over
the next few days if the models are consistent handling this


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours. Breezy northeast wind will persist at areas
immediately southwest of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain features
through the morning hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and
remain breezy through midday Saturday before decreasing. Warmer
weather and breezy southwest winds develop Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Strong southwest wind is likely Monday,
which may lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions.
Measurable precipitation is not likely through at least the middle
of next week.






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