Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Wed Mar 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern is expected for the the rest
of the week and into the weekend, as multiple weather disturbances
move off the Pacific. Expect rain and snow showers along and north
of the Mogollon Rim on Thursday, with windy conditions continuing.
After a break Friday, another chance for rain and snow arrives by
late Saturday and into Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...A weakening s/wv moving through southwest Utah this
evening brought strong winds to portion of Arizona this afternoon.
The trough axis is extending south into Mohave county, with a few
isolated showers out ahead of it. These showers may persist most of
the night, as upslope flow continues and temperatures continue to
cool aloft.

A stronger s/wv will arrive on Thursday, taking a path farther to
the south. Models are finally starting to hone in on a most likely
scenario. The strongest forcing looks to be arriving late morning or
early Thursday afternoon, somewhere between Flagstaff and the Grand
Canyon. There will likely be a few hours of intense snowfall above
6000 feet with this band, resulting in a few inches of new snow. A
secondary area will track north, bringing similar results to the
Kaibab Plateau and eastward to the Black Mesa and the Four Corners.
Areas south and east of the Mogollon Rim, as well as much of the
LCR, will see very little precipitation and gusty southwest winds.

Drier westerly flow arrives Friday and early Saturday, with another
similar s/wv bringing more banded rain and snow showers to the area
late Saturday through early Sunday.

Current products are fairly close to this solution. A Wind Advisory
is out Thursday for areas just east of Flagstaff, to the New Mexico
border. POP grids indicate what was mentioned above.

We will make small adjustments overnight and raise POPs a bit for
Thursday in the areas targeted by the 00Z models. We will also raise
the QPF/Snow Amounts for areas from Flagstaff to the Kaibab Plateau.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...South-southwest winds 15-25 kts
through 15z Thu, then increasing across Navajo and Apache counties
to 20-30kts, gusts to 40 kts. Widely scattered -shra across Kaibab
Plateau through 12z Thurs. Aft 12z Thurs, widespread ceilings 3-4kft
AGL, SCT/NMRS -SHRA/-SHSN with MVFR and local IFR. Snow levels 5500
ft on the Kaibab Plateau, to 7500 ft in the White Mountains.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue overnight, as a
trough of low pressure moves toward Arizona. This trough will bring
rain and snow showers to the district on Thursday, with gusty
southwest wind continuing east of Flagstaff. Expect clearing
Thursday night, with dry and breezy conditions on Friday.

.Saturday through Monday...The next system will move through the
region over the weekend bringing a chance of rain and snow showers
on Saturday and Sunday. Windy conditions are expected on Saturday.
High pressure will bring warmer and drier weather on Monday.



Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for AZ Public Zones
009>014-016- 017-039-040.




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