Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Sat Mar 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and breezy conditions through the early
evening hours before the next storm system pushes through
northern Arizona overnight. This next system will bring more rain
and snow, ending from west to east during the day Sunday.
Accumulating snow is expected for elevations above 5000 feet, so
be prepared for winter driving. Drying and warming conditions
return to the area early to mid week.


.DISCUSSION...The current storm remains on track with an
associated cold front pushing from west to east across Arizona
overnight. The dynamics for upward motion/upslope flow are
modestly strong and will interact with moisture that is in place
for a round of rain and snow showers across northern Arizona. The
snow level currently ranging from 6500-7500 feet will lower
rapidly overnight to 4000-5000 feet Sunday morning. The best
chance for showers will be from about 900 pm MST tonight through
Noon MST Sunday. The deepest moisture and strongest lift will
impinge upon the Kaibab Plateau southeastward to portions of the
Mogollon Rim and Black Mesa. Across these areas a general 2 to 6
inches of snowfall will be possible with lighter amounts over the
mountains areas further east. At lower elevations look for
rainfall amounts in the 0.05 to 0.25 inches range. It will also be
breezy with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph through the night.

On Sunday...The storm will rapidly head eastward with improving
conditions at most locations by Noon. The exception, far
northeast Arizona could see a continuation of a few snow showers
through the afternoon. Look for a chilly and windy day with
temperatures in the upper 30s in the mountains to lower 50s in the
valleys. Also, pressure gradients will be quite strong from about
Winslow eastward with afternoon wind gusts on sunday approaching
45 mph.

For Monday and beyond...High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern through Wednesday with warmer temperatures, partly cloudy
skies and generally light winds. A very slight chance of a shower
will sneak over northwest Arizona late Wednesday. Starting
Thursday and lasting into next weekend an unsettled weather
pattern returns with another round of cool and windy conditions as
well as a good chance of showers.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Winds will remain south-
southwesterly through the next 24 hrs gusting to 25-30 kts,
especially during the daylight hours. Expect scattered light showers
later this afternoon through early evening west of KFLG. Rain and
snow will increase with deteriorating conditions moving west to east
after 03Z and lasting through Sunday morning. Areas of snow will
produce several hours of IFR to LIFR conditions. Most areas of
showers will end by Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers will develop this afternoon across
western Arizona. Rain and snow will increase and spread east tonight
bringing wetting precipitation to most areas by Sunday morning.
Showers will diminish Sunday afternoon with cold and breezy weather
continuing. Warmer and dry conditions are forecast for Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure will bring a return to
warmer weather Tuesday and early Wednesday. Breezy and unsettled
conditions may return by Thursday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon MST
Sunday FOR AZZ009-015-016-039.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MST
Sunday FOR AZZ004-006-007.




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