Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
830 PM MST Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasing cloud cover tonight. Dry weather
and warming temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. On
Thursday and Friday, gusty southwest winds and good chances for
mainly rain showers are forecast as the next low pressure system
impacts the area.


Todays storm system has moved out of the state. Tonights forecast
lows were massaged down a few degrees along the Utah border per
current observations. Otherwise tonights forecast of increasing
cloud cover from the west after midnight looks good. Updates
already sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /210 PM MST/...For the rest of today and tonight,
conditions will continue to improve, with dry weather for all of
northern Arizona after 8 pm. In addition, strong southwest winds
will continue across east-central Arizona, where gusts above 40
mph are possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect in this area
through 5 pm. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to range
from the teens to mid-20`s across most of Arizona`s High Country.

On Monday, high pressure will begin to build into the area leading
to a period of dry weather and warming temperatures. By Wednesday,
near to above normal daytime temperatures, breezy west to
southwest winds and thick cloud cover will develop ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.

Beginning Thursday, good chances for mainly rain showers and gusty
southwest winds are forecast as the next low pressure system
impacts the area. Current data suggests that this relatively warm
system will be accompanied by a nice plume of Pacific moisture.
Snow levels look to be in the 7000 to 8000 foot range, lowest
along the Kaibab Plateau. While most model guidance forecasts some
shower activity by Thursday afternoon, the ECMWF keeps
precipitation in the forecast through much of Friday. The GFS is a
bit more progressive, with the bulk of the precipitation falling
Thursday night.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Light west winds shifting to the north overnight and
increasing to 5 to 15 kts on Monday. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will produce dry weather,
light winds and warming temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will deliver a continuation
of mild weather on Wednesday. Breezy and unsettled conditions return
for Thursday and the end of the week as a series of weather
disturbances take aim on Arizona.






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