Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 120412

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 PM MST Sun Mar 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers will end this evening, but extensive
low clouds and areas of fog will remain through Monday morning.
Dry and warmer weather returns from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday night. Breezy and unsettled conditions are back Wednesday
with the possibility of another wet system by late Friday through
the weekend.


.UPDATE...Most of the shower activity from earlier today has
dissipated, though an isolated shower will be possible through
around midnight over eastern Arizona. Copious amounts of low level
moisture remain over the region with much drier air aloft moving
in. This is a setup where low clouds and areas of fog are likely
to develop later tonight through around mid morning Monday. These
trends are covered in our current forecasts and no updates are
planned this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/... The deep moisture and mid level
shortwave that brought widespread precipitation to the northland
have moved out of the state. We do have some weak and shallow
convective showers along the Mogollon Rim from Williams to Show
Low, these should end around sunset.

Satellite imagery shows extensive stratus clouds over and around
northern AZ this afternoon. Progs keep a saturated boundary layer
with light winds over the northland through Monday morning and
areas of fog are expected.

Clearing conditions are expected Monday afternoon with fair
weather on tap through Wednesday morning. This due to a ridge of
high pressure moving across the desert southwest. Max temps to be
nearly 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday.

Southwest flow still set to return starting Wednesday. Progs are
vacillating on the strength of a shortwave passing to our
northwest on Wednesday and precip chances for the Coconino County.
Thus kept the slight chance of showers going for this area. Cross
sections showing a moistening SW upslope flow to then strengthen
through Thursday, leading to cloud cover and a slight chance of
showers along the high terrain. Breezy afternoon winds to return
for all starting Wednesday.

LONG TERM...An unsettled southwesterly flow will be over Arizona
Thursday night through Friday as a colder low pressure system
develops out over the Pacific. Expect generally cooler
temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and low chances for a few
light showers. Today`s model runs are in better agreement with
bringing a more substantial precipitation event through the area
when the Pacific trough moves through on Saturday/Saturday night,
but they still show considerable differences on the strength and
evolution which will affect resulting precipitation type and snow
levels. Have trended precip chances toward Saturday while taking a
middle of the road approach on snow levels for now.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Areas of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings and fog are likely until 16Z. Winds will
generally be light for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Showers will move out of the area to the southeast
by morning with cloudy conditions continuing until noon. A period of
mild conditions and mostly dry weather will return Monday afternoon
through the middle of the week.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect breezy southwest winds Wednesday
afternoon. Mild unsettled southwesterly flow will continue through
Friday with breezy winds each afternoon and a slight chance of
showers ahead of a colder and wetter system this weekend.






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