Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
214 PM MST Tue Mar 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal temperatures are
forecast through mid week, with increasing clouds continuing
Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, gusty southwest winds and good
chances for mainly rain showers are forecast as the next low
pressure system impacts the area. Fair weather is expected to
return for the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Mid and high level clouds will continue to increase
over the next 24 hours as a large plume of Pacific moisture
streams into southern California/Nevada. A weak ridge of high
pressure will keep precipitation to the northwest through
early Thursday with light winds and above normal daytime
temperatures. Ridging will shift east later Thursday into Friday
as a weak trough pushes into the region generating gusty southwest
winds. This feature will also lead to mainly rain shower
development with snow levels above 8000 feet. Showers will likely
be tied closely to the terrain with only light rain in the lower
elevations. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.50"
across the higher terrain with lesser amounts across the lower
elevations. The trough will quickly move through Friday afternoon
with diminishing showers and clearing skies. Dry weather returns
for the weekend with near normal temperatures. Unsettled weather
could return early next week, but model solutions vary on the
synoptic pattern evolution.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions under
increasing mid- to upper-level cloudiness over the next 24 hours.
Light winds generally less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather with
light winds through Wednesday. However, clouds will be on the
increase in advance of an approaching Pacific weather system leading
to a slight chance of showers late on Thursday. Ventilation will be
good Wednesday afternoon becoming excellent on Thursday under
stronger southwest winds.

Friday through Sunday...For Friday, expect gusty southwest winds and
increasing moisture across Arizona as a weather system scoots across
the area. Temperatures will cool to near average for this time of
year. Fair weather will return for Saturday and Sunday but with
gusty southwest winds continuing.






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