923
FXUS65 KFGZ 080457
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
957 PM MST Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected this week. There will be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, with most of the activity over the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Temperatures will peak from
Tuesday through Thursday, with very hot conditions at the lower
elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Showers and thunderstorms increase in
coverage through this afternoon, mainly along and north of the
Mogollon Rim as high pressure advects moisture northward. The 18Z
FGZ RAOB shows a strong invered-v profile, with DCAPE nearing
1200-1600 J/Kg, indicative of an environment favorable for gusty
outflow winds from any storms that develop. Additionally, rainfall
amounts will be minimal, so dry lightning will also be a threat.

Tuesday...The ridge begins to retrograde and become centered over
Arizona. Drier air begins to be advected into the Four Corners
region on the backside, with deeper moisture pulled northward into
the Colorado River Valley across western Arizona. As a result,
another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
on Tuesday, with coverage mainly focused across the western-half of
the state. Outflow boundaries may act to push moisture further
eastward, allowing some isolated activity to move into the Little
Colorado River Valley.

Wednesday through Sunday...The ridge begins to amplify across
Arizona, with heights nearing 600 dam. While moisture remains
trapped under the high, the resulting subsidence inversion will act
to suppress any upward motion to develop storms. The result is
mainly dry conditions and hot temperatures across much of the area
by Wednesday. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for the Grand
Canyon and the lower elevations of Gila and Yavapai counties.

A cut-off low off the California Coast then looks to eject off the
Pacific later this week, suppressing the high to the south and
ushering in drier and slightly cooler air to northern Arizona. Any
chances for storms looks to largely be confined to the White
Mountains. Even then, rainfall amounts look to be light, with gusty
winds remaining the primary threat.

Breezier conditions also look to develop on Thursday, as the low
brushes to the north. Given the still low surface moisture, RH values
would be low enough to support critical fire weather conditions.
However, winds still look to be marginal for most of the area at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 08/06Z through Wednesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA mainly west of a KPGA-KINW-KJTC line after 17Z-02Z.
VRB winds 5-10 kts, then SW winds 5-15 kts after 16Z. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds possible in and around TS.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 09/06Z through Friday 11/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA mainly along a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW-KJTC
line Wednesday, then over the White Mountains on Thursday. W winds
10-15 kts each day. Gusty, erratic outflow winds possible in and
around TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Hot and mainly dry. Slight
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over higher
terrain. West winds 5-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph and minimum
afternoon RH 10-20% each day. Gusty erratic outflow winds possible
near thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot and mainly dry conditions continue,
outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly near
the White Mountains each afternoon. West/southwest winds 10-15 mph
with gusts 20-30 mph. Minimum afternoon RH 8-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ018-
037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff