Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 AM MST Thu Mar 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern is expected for the the rest
of the week and into the weekend, as multiple weather disturbances
move off the Pacific. Expect rain and snow showers today, with
windy conditions continuing. After a break Friday, another chance
for rain and snow arrives Saturday evening through Sunday morning.


.DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure stretches across most
of the western U.S. this morning with an embedded shortwave
bringing showers to southern California. This shortwave will move
east through Arizona today bringing a good chance for rain and
mountain snow showers along with strong winds to eastern portions
of the state. A few upslope forced showers are possible through
the early morning, otherwise the main precipitation is expected
to begin after 8 am MST. Showers will increase across
Coconino/Yavapai Counties this morning then spread east through
the afternoon. We still expect up to an inch or two of snow above
6,000 feet with up to 3-4" over the Kaibab Plateau. Gusty winds
through the day may lead to areas of poor visibility in snow
showers. The strongest winds will be east of a Page to Payson line
where a Wind Advisory continues.There is also a possibility of a
few thunderstorms, especially north of Flagstaff through the

The trough axis heads east of Arizona this evening with showers
coming to an end, though some breezy winds will continue
overnight. Friday will see a slightly more mild southerly flow in
between weather systems.

The parent trough that has been out over the Pacific will move
inland this weekend with another round of rain and mountain snow
likely. This one takes a similar track through Arizona with
similar precipitation amounts forecast from Saturday evening
through Sunday morning. Generally 1-3" of snow are possible,
again above about 6,000 feet. A period of drier weather arrives
through the early part of next week with warming temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...South-southwest winds 15-25 kts
through 15z, increasing across Navajo and Apache counties to 20-30kt
gusts to 40 kt. Widespread ceilings 3-4kft AGL today with SCT/NMRS -
SHRA/-SHSN causing local MVFR and IFR. TS possible 19Z-02Z north
of I-40. Snow levels 5500 ft on the Kaibab Plateau to 7500 ft in
the White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue as a trough of
low pressure moves across Arizona. This trough will bring rain and
snow showers today lasting into the evening. Expect gusty southwest
winds to continue overnight and through Friday.

.Saturday through Monday...Another trough will move through the
region over the weekend bringing rain and snow showers on Saturday
and Sunday. Windy conditions are expected on Saturday. High pressure
will bring warmer and drier weather on Monday with light winds.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to
7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ009>014-016-017-039-040.




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