Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
429 AM MST Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring strong winds and dangerous
fire weather conditions to the area on Monday and Tuesday. Cooler
conditions will follow this front on Tuesday, with a warming trend
for Wednesday. Strong winds then make another appearance later
next week, on Thursday and Friday.


A windy and dry day will quickly develop on monday ahead of a
strong shortwave trough and assocaited cold front that will cross
the region early this week. While the bulk of the moisture will
remain well to the north of the area, strong winds will dominate
northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday. These strong winds will
combine with dangerously low relative humidities to create
critical fire weather conditions across the area.

A Red Flag warning is in effect for Monday from 11 am until 11 pm
Monday Night.

Due to the strong winds, a high wind warning for the Coconino
Plateau, Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon Country, and the Western
Mogollon Rim is in effect for Monday from 11 am to 11 pm as well.

All other locations in northern Arizona are under a wind advisory
from 11 am to 11 pm.

The strong pressure gradient moves across the region winds will
decrease Tuesday in the Western part of the area, while winds will
continue Tuesday closer to the New Mexico border.

As the system pushes eastward, a shortwave ridge will begin to
move into the region and allow for temperatures to begin to warm
back up Wednesday as wind speeds decrease.

The next shortwave trough will begin to move across the region
Thursday, with a track than the previous few systems. This will
allow for some moisture transport into the region with some
precipitation possible with this system later in the week.

Current precipitation forecasts are relatively light with limited
amounts mainly along the Utah Arizona line, however subsequent
model runs continue to push more precipitation further into
Arizona by Friday. Forecast confidence in this system is rather
low due to the distance in the future.

The weekend looks to return back towards another ridge that will
continue into early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect FEW-SCT200 BKN-
OVC250 through 00Z then FEW-SCT100. VFR conditions will persist.
Southwest winds will strengthen today 20-30kts with gusts 30-40kts.
Winds locally gusting to near 50kts on the lee of peaks and large
plateaus through 06Z. Southwest winds will remain gusty for many
areas after 06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Stronger southwest winds will develop today,
leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions into this
evening. Critical fire weather conditions are likely for eastern
Arizona on Tuesday as well, as winds shift to the west-northwest.

Wednesday through Friday...Winds will turn lighter on Wednesday.
Another deep trough moves into the fire district Thursday and into
Friday bringing more strong and gusty winds, along with chances for
precipitation, mainly for the northern third of the state.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ004-006-007-015.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ005-008>014-016>018-037>040.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon FOR AZZ111-113-114-117-140.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ011-013-014-




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