Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
823 PM MST Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...There will be increasing chances for rain and snow
showers late tonight into Friday, as the strong winds from earlier
today weaken as well. Moderating temperatures can be expected for
the weekend and into early next week.


Winds have come down significantly for most locations this
evening, and we have let wind headlines/products expire. Chances
for showers will develop later tonight and Friday associated with
the passing low pressure system. In all, forecast looks in good
shape, with just some minor updates to precip chances expected
this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/...Low pressure can be seen moving
through southern California this afternoon with deep southerly
flow entrenched across Arizona. Strong southerly winds have
developed with current observations reporting 30-40 mph gusting
from 40 to 55 mph. The strongest winds so far have been reported
from Two Guns to Springerville where gusts of 60-70 mph have been
reported. Eastern Arizona may have already experienced their
strongest gusts as thicker cloud cover moving in this afternoon
may hamper stronger winds from reaching the surface. Meanwhile,
the western zones which are clearing out will likely see wind
speeds increase through the afternoon. Wind Warnings and
Advisories remain in effect until 8 pm MST/9 pm MDT. A Dust Storm
Warning also remains in effect. We have not seen evidence or
reports of any blowing dust yet, but there is high potential for
it to develop and will keep the warning out. Lastly, the strong
wind and very low humidity are generating Red Flag conditions and
a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of northern Arizona.

Winds will remain breezy tonight as the potent cold front moves
through, but they will remain below advisory/warning criteria.
There will be an increasing chance for rain and snow showers along
the Utah border region overnight which will spread south along
the Mogollon Rim through Friday afternoon. The best chance for
measurable precipitation will be over the Kaibab Plateau and Black
Mesa where up to about an inch of snow is possible above 6,000
feet. There`s also enough instability Friday afternoon for a few
thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures will be cooler Friday,
especially in the northeast corner of the state.

The low exits by the weekend with much warmer and drier weather in
store. Warm and predominantly dry weather will continue through
next week as high pressure dominates over the southwest.

Models agree with bringing another cold low into the western
states sometime late next week or weekend, but timing
differences are too great to have any real confidence on any wind
or precipitation impacts at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Winds south to southwest at 10
gusting 20 kts over night, becoming westerly at 10-20 kts gusting
20-30 kts after 16Z. Expect areas of MVFR across Coconino county
as cigs fall to near 3000 feet with Isold to Scattered
-SHRA/-SHSN mainly N of a KFLG-K0V7 line. Showers will continue
 through Friday afternoon with possible Isold afternoon
-TSRA/-TSSN. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect increasing humidity and cloud cover by
Friday morning behind a passing front. Scattered showers are
possible Friday, with breezy west to northwest wind. Much warmer
conditions with less wind are expected Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warmer conditions continue with
winds generally 15 mph or less.






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