Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 162240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 PM MST Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring strong winds and dangerous
fire weather conditions to the area through Tuesday. A slight cool
down follows the front for Tuesday, with a warming trend Wednesday.
Strong winds and a chance of rain and snow showers make another
appearance later next week, on Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Extensive middle and high cloud cover has held down
wind speeds in many areas so far this afternoon. Although many areas
have hit Wind Advisory criteria, High Wind Warning speeds have not
developed yet. The highest wind speeds aloft are just west of the
cloud band, of course where the best mixing is as well. We expect
this clearing line to work eastward through the remainder of the
High Wind Warning period and some higher gusts should develop.

The remainder of the area is under Wind Advisories and Red Flag
Warnings. The target areas will slowly shift east overnight and into
Tuesday, with advisories and warnings tracking east as well.

The trough and cold front responsible for all this wind will move
east of the area Tuesday afternoon and winds will slowly come down
with some minor cooling of the airmass.

A s/wv ridge moves across Arizona on Wednesday, for a warming trend
and less wind. This is ahead of another cold trough due Thursday and
Friday. This next system will bring another round of strong winds
Thursday, followed by instability showers producing rain and snow
Thursday night and Friday. The current track of this trough is much
farther south compared to the last few, so this our best shot at
some moisture in awhile.

Finally, ridging returns next weekend, for a prolonged period of dry
and warm conditions.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will persist
through the forecast period. Southwest winds 20-30kts with gusts
from 30-40kts continuing through much of the period. Winds slowly
decreasing west and south of the Mogollon Rim by 06Z. Higher gusts
possible lee of higher terrain features, winds switching to westerly
by Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds will continue into the
night along the passage of a dry cold front. Winds will then shift
to the west-northwest Tuesday morning behind the cold front, with
critical fire weather conditions likely for eastern Arizona Tuesday
afternoon. Wednesday, winds will be light and out of the south.

Thursday through Saturday...A deep trough of low pressure will bring
gusty southwest winds Thursday into Friday. This system could bring
scattered snow and rain showers, mainly north of the Mogollon Rim.
Drying and warming returns Saturday.



High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for AZ Public Zones

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for AZ FWX Zones

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZ Public Zones

Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST Tuesday for AZ Public Zones

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for AZ FWX Zones 111-113-114-117-140.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST Tuesday for AZ Public Zones




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.