Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 191623

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Mon Mar 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast
through mid week, with increasing clouds by late Tuesday and
Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, gusty southwest winds and good
chances for mainly rain showers are forecast as the next low
pressure system impacts the area.


.DISCUSSION...Moderating temperatures and generally light winds
will be the main story over the next few days. A weak ridge of
high pressure over the region will result in daytime high
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Latest model guidance still indicates a good chance of mainly rain
showers late Thursday and Friday with a return to fair weather for
the weekend. Current forecast handles this well so no need for
updates this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /437 AM MST/...Clouds over the region early this
morning are expected to move eastward resulting in mainly sunny
skies today. Temperatures will be warmer than Sunday, but still a
few degrees below seasonal averages. Tuesday and Wednesday - weak
ridging over Arizona with daytime temperatures warming to above
normal. There will be increasing clouds starting late Tuesday as
Arizona will be on the southern edge of a large subtropical
moisture plume (atmospheric river) that will be bringing rain to
much of California. Thursday and Friday - the moisture plume
shifts into Arizona along with a weak trough passage. Windy
conditions are possible Thursday ahead of the trough, with a good
chance of rain showers later Thursday through Friday. At this
time, snow levels look to remain above 7500-8500 feet. Next
weekend looks generally fair at this point, though models show a
cold trough lurking north of the state making our temperature
forecasts uncertain.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours. Light winds generally less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure moving into the southwest will bring
dry and warmer weather with light winds through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect increasing southwest winds and
moisture to move into Arizona through the end of the week. Thursday
and Friday will see the best chance for rain showers, along with
gusty southwest winds. After temperatures peak on Wednesday,
they will trend closer to normal through Friday.






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