Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 AM MST Sat Apr 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through
Saturday morning. Expect warming temperatures through the weekend
with lighter winds on Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Winds will
become breezy out of the southwest on Sunday. Another round of
very strong southwest winds is expected Monday with very dry
conditions making widespread critical fire weather likely across
northern Arizona.


A brief respite from windy conditions will occur this weekend as a
shortwave ridge moves over the region. Some breezy winds will be
possible Saturday morning, but as the pressure gradient decreases
with the advancing ridge, winds should calm down by the afternoon.
Along with the calmer winds, temperatures should begin moderating
back up to climatological values for this time of year.

On Sunday that trend will continue with temperatures climbing 5 to
10 degrees above climatological normal temperatures with winds
shifting to a more southwesterly flow pattern, and becoming most
active in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Unfortunately, the quiet weather is not going to last past the
weekend, as another strong low pressure ridge will move out of the
Pacific and across the Great Basin. This will once again cause
strong gusty winds across the area Monday.

When combined with the dry conditions of late, and the fact that
no moisture is anticipated with this system, the biggest concerns
for Monday`s frontal passage will be for fire weather due to low
relative humidity values, and strong winds.

A fire weather watch has been issued for the entirety of the area
Monday morning through Monday evening.

The potential for strong possibly damaging winds does exist,
however confidence in the strength of these winds is a below what
would be preferred for a high wind watch. Have opted to just go
with the Fire Weather Watch for the time being.

Wind speeds will relax a bit on Tuesday as the trough axis passes
to the east, but timing and future model forecasts may necessitate
additional products depending when the winds decrease. Cooler
temperatures will occur on Tuesday with most locations dropping
down to around 5 degrees below climatological normals.

Another deep trough moves into the area Thursday bringing more
strong winds, but a better chance for precipitation across
northern Arizona. Currently, confidence is low for significant
moisture from this system as it is still far out, but confidence
will increase over the next few days if the models are consistent
handling this system.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
the next 24 hours. Breezy northeast wind will persist at areas
immediately southwest of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain
features through 18Z...then decrease. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Northeast winds will remain breezy through
noon today before decreasing. Warmer weather and breezy southwest
winds will develop Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Strong southwest wind is likely Monday,
which could lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions into
Monday evening. Measurable precipitation is not likely through at
least the middle of next week.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
FOR AZZ104>118-137>140.




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