Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

See aviation discussion below.


Windy conditions across SE NM with G39kts/35kts this PM around
21Z CNM/HOB respectively and could result in MVFR BLDU. Still
gusty into the evening at but decreasing. Mtn wave to set-up
across GDP Mtns and light low flying aircraft could experience
severe turbulence.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/


See 12z aviation discussion below.


Winds will increase and be gusty out of the southwest to west by
this afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35-40 knots for CNM
and HOB with blowing dust possible. Winds may briefly shift
towards the south for MAF and FST this evening then weaken and
become westerly later tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/

The main weather focus this forecast period will be fire weather
concerns, please see the discussion below for more information.
Otherwise zonal flow will create dry and warmer than normal
conditions to persist into next week. A quick moving trough will
cause strong winds in the Guadalupe Mountains, with windy
conditions spreading east and south into the adjacent plains in
southeastern New Mexico and into the Big Bend. There will be a
chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing
this afternoon and early evening, but low surface dewpoints and
very fast cell movement will greatly limit any QPF amounts. Winds
diminish overnight and will remain light across most of the area
until Sunday when low pressure moving across the western U.S.
reaches the plains and strong winds again develop in the
Guadalupe Mountains with very windy conditions also seen across
much of the remainder of the area. Any frontal passages the next
several days will be associated with highly modified airmasses and
very little cold air advection.


Fire weather concerns increase today with the approach of an upper
trough. Winds will increase across the area with wind speeds of at
least 20 mph across the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe
Mountains, Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, and Upper Trans Pecos.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or below will be present
today across portions of southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans
Pecos. RFTI values will be 4 to 5 across most of southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and southward to portions of the
Rio Grande. ERCG values look to be between 70 and 80 percent across
most of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon
into early this evening for the southeast New Mexico plains where
conditions are most favorable for fire weather.

Widespread low RH values will be present on Friday, but winds are
only expected to be above 20 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. RFTI
values will be 5 to 6 across the Guadalupe Mountains and 2 to 3
across most of the plains along and north of the Pecos River. A Fire
Watch/Red Flag Warning may be issued later for the Guadalupe
Mountains but at the very least a Fire Danger Statement will likely
be issued for Friday. Widespread low RH values will again be present
on Saturday with similar winds as Friday. RFTI values are expected
to get up to 4 in the Guadalupe Mountains.

Sunday looks to be the most significant fire weather day this
forecast period with possible critical conditions across a large
portion of the area. Low RH values will be across the area except
maybe the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, wind speeds will be at
least 20 mph across areas along and north of I-10. RFTI values are
expected to be 5 to 6 across practically all of the area along
and north of I-10.


Big Spring                     48  80  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  86  57  88 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  80  53  80 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  65  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          40  71  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  79  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  79  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           45  80  48  81 /  10   0   0   0


NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Southeast

TX...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


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