562
FXUS64 KMAF 081056
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) are
  expected this afternoon, with the best chance across southeast
  New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas.


- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through Wednesday, with
  temperatures trending slightly above normal during the latter
  part of the week.

- Near normal temperatures and low rain chances return over the
  weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

High pressure remains near the Four Corners region for the short
term period. The effects of the high will be most prominent west
of the CWA and subsidence decreases over the Great Plains and
Rockies allowing for afternoon convection to form. The best rain
chances will be in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River
though differential heating and outflow boundaries could provide a
low chance for a shower or thunderstorm anywhere in West Texas
and southeastern New Mexico. Southeast low level flow will advect
gulf air keeping highs near normal.

An upper trough moving into the northwestern U.S. dampens the
ridge tomorrow and shoves the high center a little closer to our
area. Increasing subsidence decreases rain chances for tomorrow
though continued low level southeasterly flow keeps highs near
normal for one more day.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

High pressure to our west continues to flatten late in the week
with the ridge axis edging into the southern Great Plains. The
biggest consequence of this is that low level winds veer slightly
from the southeast to the south, cutting off the cooler gulf air
and sending our temperatures back above normal. Highs Thursday and
Friday will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s.

By the weekend the high pressure system reorganizes farther west
and a trough becomes reestablished over eastern New Mexico and
West Texas. Temperatures drop back down closer to normal and
instability associated with the upper trough will allow for
afternoon convection to develop once again. This set up remains
into next week with near normal temps and low rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions and light southerly to southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail through the period. Isolated shower and
storm development is anticipated again beginning this afternoon
lasting through the evening. -TSRA/TS PROB30s were implemented at
most sites, besides FST and PEQ, given the uncertainty in
positioning due to the isolated coverage of these storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  72  94  73 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  71  94  71 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   94  73  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            95  71  95  71 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  68  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  69  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                    88  63  89  62 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  72  94  73 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   92  72  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                     94  71  94  71 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11