Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 172344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.



Southwesterly winds will continue the next 24 hours. Gusts will
diminish somewhat after sunset this evening, though winds will
increase significantly Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
to 30-40kt will be common, with gusts over 50kt possible, especially
at CNM. Flight conditions will be especially hazardous in the
vicinity of the mountains where severe turbulence will develop.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though at least patchy
blowing dust will be possible, especially after 18Z Sunday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/


..High winds and critical fire weather still on track to hit

It has turned into a beautiful afternoon with temperatures in the
70`s and 80`s and fairly light winds across the area. Get out and
enjoy because a big weather change is on the way for Sunday. A
shortwave now just off the coast of N CA will round the base of a
large upper trough over the Great Basin. This wave will
effectively deepen the upper trough as it moves across AZ tonight.
SW flow aloft ahead of this system will keep upper level moisture
levels high and cloudy skies in place tonight. This will not
allow temperatures to cool too much by morning.

The upper storm system is expected to quickly move across NM and the
TX/OK Panhandles during the day tomorrow. An intense area of low
pressure will develop at the surface over SE CO Sunday afternoon
leading to a tightening pressure gradient over much of E NM and W
TX. A mid level jet is also expected to pass just north of our area
late in the afternoon. All the above is expected to lead to very
strong winds for much of the area Sunday. Will upgrade much of the
High Wind Watch to a Warning and issue a Wind Advisory for areas
further east. It is possible we could see winds gust near 80 mph
in the Guadalupe Mountains and even near 65 mph in the adjacent
plains. Winds will first pick up across the Mountains and SE NM by
late morning and spread east through the afternoon. Areas of
blowing dust are also expected to impact much of the region. Last,
but not least is the critical fire weather conditions we will see
areawide Sunday. You can find the details below in the fire
weather discussion.

Strong winds will continue into Sunday night and Monday as the
upper system pulls away and a cold front moves across the area.
Temperatures will fall back below normal Monday and Tuesday as the
stronger winds finally diminish. Upper ridging will build in
midweek and temperatures are expected to climb above normal once
again. Another upper trough will move across the West late next
week and could bring more wind and critical fire weather to the
area. Unfortunately, we are not seeing anything in the forecast to
provide relief from the ongoing drought.


Vis sat imagery shows a blanket of mid/hi cloud over the nrn half of
the CWA, while further SW, a batch of anticipated mid cloud is
moving across the border, and will cover most of the area by late
this afternoon/overnight.  This has put a damper on both heating and
mixing, keeping both winds and RH from reaching widespread critical

Sunday continues to resemble outbreaks days of the past. Today`s
models are in good agreement on the timing/placement of the upper
trough set to center over NE NM by 00Z Mon. NAM forecast soundings
mix a little lower than 24 hours ago--725mb vs. 675mb--but the GFS
is holding firm at mixing to 675mb 00Z Mon.  At this level, 60+kt
westerlies are forecast along the mtns from the Guadalupes to the
Sangre de Cristos, w/slightly lesser velocities extending east into
the Texas Panhandle/S. Plains.  Just north of the CWA, a 100kt jet
core is forecast at H5.  All of this will be on the windward side of
the LLTR.  Models continue to develop a fairly tight pressure
gradient, which will negate any mixing inhibition should any cloud
cover stream over the area.  Attm, cloud cover looks slim-to-none
Sun afternoon.  RH looks to go below 15% during the afternoon
everywhere except maybe the Guadalupes. However, RH there will be
near-critical, and w/RFTIs of 5-6 and w/ERCs in the 50th-70th %ile
range or better, slightly higher RH won`t factor in.  Elsewhere, 5-6
RFTIs and 70th-90th percentile ERCs cover most of the area.  A ridge
of extreme (7) RFTI runs SW-NE thru the area.

CIPS analogs suggest Sunday will be similar to outbreaks of the
past, and we will continue to stress the heightened dangers expected
in the warning.  Because pressure gradients are forecast stay tight
into Monday, RH recovery will be lousy Sunday night, and w/critical
RH anticipated again Mon afternoon, we`ve extended the RFW until
02Z Tue.


Big Spring                     53  79  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  73  38  69 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  90  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  80  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  62  36  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  70  37  66 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  71  33  66 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           55  78  45  71 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  78  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           55  78  40  71 /  10   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Sunday to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Andrews-Big Bend
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Monday for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.


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