Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 190240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
940 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Updated for the expiration of the Wind Advisory and portions of
the High Wind Warning.



Winds have begun to decrease this evening, and while a cold front
continues to make progress into the area and will result in gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds, wind speeds are expected to
remain below advisory and warning criteria for most of the
region. The only exceptions are the Guadalupe Mountains and Van
Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, where very windy conditions are
expected to continue through the remainder of this evening,
especially across the higher elevations. A High Wind Warning
remains in effect for these areas. Products have been updated,
and will be out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

See 00Z aviation discussion below.

Gusty winds will continue through the TAF period, diminishing
slightly overnight as the loss of daytime heating reducing mixing
with higher winds aloft. There may be brief periods of MVFR VIS
due to blowing dust but it is not worth mentioning in the TAFs.
Any ASOS reporting MVFR CIGs will be in error as it is observing
dust aloft and not clouds.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/


WV imagery shows a fast-moving, negatively-tilted upper trough
moving thru the Four Corners area at 18Z, and forecast to be over NE
NM by 00Z Mon.  The timing is such that winds should increase thru
00Z as opposed to the usual 21Z.  Today`s NAM soundings mix to an
average of 675mb, vs 650mb for the GFS.  Regardless, westerlies at
these levels are forecast to be 60+kts invof the Guadalupes at 00Z,
decreasing to 45-50 kts downstream over the Wrn Low Rolling
Plains/Permian Basin.  This will be aided by a tight sfc press grad
not forecast to slacken until after 12Z Mon when the sfc trough
moves east thru OK.  The NAM continues to maintain a mtn wave
signature off the charts, and this too is forecast to peak at 00Z
Mon.  Therefore, current wind warnings/advisories look to be in good
shape, w/winds decreasing after sunset/decoupling.  Because winds
are not forecast to diminish much overnight due to the lingering
pressure gradient, RH recovery will be poor, maintaining near-
critical fire wx conditions overnight and into Monday.  See Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

A cold front will push thru the region Monday, entering the nrn
zones by around 18Z and keeping afternoon highs near- to below-
normal.  Temps will drop a couple more degrees Tue before sfc flow
reverts back to return flow Tue night.  Wednesday, temperatures
climb to above-normal as an upper-lvl ridge begins building in from
the west.  Thicknesses/temps peak Thu/Fri as the ridge passes thru
the region, then come down slightly into the weekend. Unfortunately,
this will result in little chance of rain, and more critical fire wx
beginning Fri or so.


Red Flag Warning will continue across entire area through 9 pm CDT
Monday. This afternoon, west winds were on the increase with
humidities across the area dropping below 15 percent. RFTI values of
6 to 7 suggest extreme fire weather conditions have developed in a
band from northern Lea County across the northern Permian Basin. By
late afternoon RFTI values will max out at 6 to 7 with values
possibly topping 8 across northern areas as humidities drop to
between 8 and 10 percent with sustained winds of 20 mph or greater
area wide and particularly strong across the mountains, southeast
New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin. The threat of significant
fires is high with ERC values near 90th percentile from the upper
trans-Pecos into the northern Permian Basin.

Tonight recovery will be poor with maximum humidities only rising to
about 30 percent. Winds will also be slow to drop off, resulting in
critical fire conditions continuing into the evening.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again across the area
on Monday with minimum humidities between 5 and 10 percent. Winds
are expected to exceed 20 mph shortly after sunrise, though winds
will not be nearly as strong as this afternoon. Maximum RFTI values
of 4 to 6 are expected across the mountains eastward into the
Permian Basin and Terrell County areas and south to the Big Bend.


Big Spring                     48  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  71  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  82  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  61  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  66  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  67  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  72  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  71  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  72  36  71 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


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