Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 142251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

00Z TAF issuance
Gusty southeast winds will continue much of the evening across
the terminals. Winds may subside briefly before sunrise but are
expected to increase again Thursday afternoon. Look for southwest
winds gusting over 30 kts across SE NM and over 25 kts elsewhere.
Could see some patch blowing dust, but VFR conditions should


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

No significant changes to the previous forecast, fire weather
concerns look to be the main focus over the next several days.

Afternoon temperature coming in a few degrees warmer than yesterday
with fairly breezy conditions across the region. A bit of clouds
moving over southern portions of the region today as a shortwave
moves through this area. Seeing some very weak radar returns and
given the dry air in place (dewpoints in the 20s/low 30s), looks
more likely to be virga or very light rain at best. Thursday, an
upper trough will swing rotate through the Desert Southwest and into
the Central Plains. At the surface, winds will take a more westerly
component as a surface trough deepens across eastern CO. Southwest
downsloping winds will result in a significant warmup across the
region with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. Stronger
winds aloft look to increase winds across the Guadalupe Mountains
and the adjacent plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Will go
ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupes and a Wind Advisory will likely be needed for
surrounding areas. Upper forcing associated with the trough will
remain well to the north however we could get enough weak
instability for afternoon/evening elevated showers and
thunderstorms (with dry lightning possible!), particularly across
the Lower Trans Pecos and perhaps the Big Bend region where higher
moisture (40s dewpoints) will reside.

By Friday morning, the dryline quickly mixes east with very dry air
moving in for the day. Temperatures will once again climb up into
the 70s and 80s and fire weather concerns may increase slightly
however winds look fairly marginal for through Saturday. Above
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
widespread critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday as
winds increase across the region. A weak front arrives Monday,
cooling temperatures slightly through Tuesday. Otherwise, the
majority of the forecast remains dry.

Critical fire wx conditions in association with gusty sw-s winds and
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal and dry fuels warrant the
issuance of an RFW on Thur for SE NM. This is a harder call to make
for the GDP Mtns, even though the winds will be there the
temperature/moisture profiles will not be as good. Still warm and
dry on Fri/Sat but less wind and we expect this day will be a good
RFD candidates. However we could get into or close to warning
conditions based on just how dry the fuels get? A greater and more
organized concern exits on Sunday as the preceding days lower
fuel moisture in advance of mixed layer winds around 30kts. It
will be cooler, but min RHs will still be less than 15% except in
the GDP Mtns. We won`t issue a watch today but if same signals are
there in Thursday data we likely will.


Big Spring                     50  83  51  80 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  82  45  77 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         49  81  53  86 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  51  83  52  80 /   0  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  42  74 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          42  75  41  73 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  82  51  79 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         50  82  51  78 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           49  84  48  79 /   0  10   0   0


NM...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for Southeast

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.



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