182
FXUS64 KMAF 200456
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1056 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

- Continued cold with temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal
  through Tuesday night.

- The coldest temperatures are anticipated Monday night and
  Tuesday morning, when breezy northeasterly winds bring wind
  chill values as low as 5 above to 5 below over the plains/lower
  terrain areas and as low as 10 to 20 below over the mountains.

- Light snow across the I-10 corridor Monday night with little to no
  impacts.

- Temperatures warm closer to normal by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A large-scale upper trough encompassing the entire CONUS is bringing
Arctic air to the region. Temperatures have only warmed into the 20s
and low 30s this afternoon which is nearly 20 degrees below normal,
even during our typically coldest time of year. Winds have already
returned to the southeast, but that will help very little as cold
air recirculates around the surface high to our northeast. Expect
lows to drop again into the teens and 20s overnight and with
increasing wind speeds, wind chills fall back into the single
digits. Will move forward with another Cold Weather Advisory for the
majority of the region.

A shortwave will round the base of the upper trough Monday sending
another cold front our way. This will limit any warming with highs
once again in the 30s/40s. Similar to last night, strong gap winds
will develop behind the front across the Guadalupe Mountains and
foothills and a High Wind Watch is in effect. Lows will drop back
into the single digits and teens Monday night and with the stronger
winds, wind chills will fall dangerously low (-10F to 10F). Will
continue with the Extreme Cold Watch for most of the area.

A weak wave will move across southern portions of the region Monday
night helping to generate light precipitation. Atmospheric profiles
suggest this to be mostly snow. QPF remains very light and only
expect a dusting at best which will limit any impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The long term begins with very cold temperatures as an upper-level
shortwave trough pushes an Arctic cold front through the region
early Tuesday morning where high temperatures drop into the mid 30s
for most, low 30s in the mountains, and upper 30s to mid 40s near
the Rio Grande. Tuesday morning temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid to upper teens for most, with mid 20s along the Rio Grande.
A tightened pressure gradient will bring high winds to the Guadalupe
mountains during the early morning hours of Tuesday. To account for
this, high wind products may need to be extended into early Tuesday
morning during the next forecast package. These high winds will also
bring dangerously cold wind chills, where values are expected to be
in the single digits over much of the area and subzero temperatures
in portions of southeastern New Mexico and at higher elevations. As
a result, an Extreme Cold Watch was issued this morning and is
effective until early Tuesday morning. There is still the
possibility of light snow or flurries early Tuesday morning in the
Big Bend, Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, southern portions of Permian
Basin, and southeastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave trough. At this time, we still don`t expect any
significant accumulations (likely a trace, if anything) or impacts
to travel as model soundings indicate lower levels of the atmosphere
look to be relatively dry and ascent to be weak. Very cold
temperatures continue into the overnight hours Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning, where lows are forecast to be in the upper
teens to low 20s for most and some spots in the mountains could see
readings in the low to mid teens. Wind chills don`t look to be as
cold Wednesday morning where values are in the low to mid teens in
the central Permian Basin and Trans Pecos regions. Locations at
higher elevations could see upper single digits and upper teens to
low 20s along the Rio Grande.

The bitter cold finally ends on Wednesday as an upper-level trough
brings northwesterly flow aloft and winds at the surface become
westerly throughout most of the day. Highs on Wednesday are
currently anticipated to be in the low to mid 50s at most spots,
with the exception of mid to upper 40s at higher elevations. A much
weaker cold front is anticipated to move through the area Wednesday
night, dropping Thursday`s highs into the upper 40s in southeastern
New Mexico, most of the northern Permian Basin, and higher terrains.
Those of you in the Trans Pecos Big Bend, and Presidio Valley areas
could see highs in the low to mid 50s. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance depicts higher geopotential thickness associated with upper-
level ridging on Friday, bumping highs back up to near normal. Most
locations could see highs in the low to mid 50s, whereas spots in
the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande may see temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Southerly to southwesterly flow at the surface
and west-southwest flow aloft acts to warm temperatures up above
normal on Saturday. A weak front may be possible late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, dropping Sunday`s highs 5-10 degrees
cooler from Saturday. Dry conditions are expected throughout the
extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the end of the TAF period. Southeast
winds persist throughout the night into tomorrow morning. These
winds will be particularly strong and gusty at FST. Winds shift
northeasterly tomorrow afternoon in response to an approaching
front, becoming strong and gusty by 00z for most sites (later on for
FST and PEQ). A layer of low-to-mid level clouds will also begin to
overspread the area by tomorrow evening through the end of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  17  37  15 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 36  18  37  15 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   40  22  43  22 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            36  23  46  18 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           33  22  34  13 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    31  16  33  12 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    40  18  51  12 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     35  19  38  16 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   35  20  38  16 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     37  22  40  18 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Monday for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13