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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. The exception
appears to be KMAF where prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected
through shortly after sunrise. South to southeast winds of 5 to 15
mph is expected overnight with winds shifting to the northwest by
mid Saturday morning and increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty
during much of Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Gusty SE winds continue at issuance at all but CNM, where winds
have shifted to the west behind a dryline. Thunderstorms along
the dryline could affect HOB this evening, thus have included
TEMPO mention there, but will amend as needed elsewhere. BLDU is
also a concern this evening, with periods of MVFR visibility
possible. Winds will gradually decrease through the evening, with
gusts diminishing by around 06Z. Thereafter, winds will gradually
veer around to the NW at all terminals by Saturday morning, with
breezy conditions developing as a cold front moves through the
area. Low clouds may develop and affect MAF late tonight, but
otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail outside of TS/BLDU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Southeast low-level flow is howling e of the dryline, but the source
region is such that surface Td are still in the 40s, expected to get
to 50 by 00Z Sat. We opted to expand the wind advisory by a few
counties to nw-n. The dryline is forecast to set-up INVOF a line
from Hobbs-Alpine-Big Bend by 00Z Sat. Model derived CAPE is
still a narrow axis with localized maxima within axis higher, 2000
J/KG in Pecos area. A few elevated -SHRA have developed across
the n and far w CWFA, however NAM12 does initiate more substantial
convection INVOF Pecos around 00Z Sat while CAM solutions favor
initiation in N Lea Co and in Pecos area, where there is deeper
boundary layer mixing. Storms that develop will move fast and
generally most rainfall amounts will .10" or less, ECMWF does have
highest amounts .25" across n Dawson Co.. Isold strong/severe
storms can`t be ruled out, shear is certainly strong enough. Any
severe threat does look to be short-lived, environment e of the
mentioned initiation areas is cooler and less unstable. Dry air
will move into most areas by 15Z Sat with secondary cool surge
across the PB moving thru 00Z- 06Z Sun. Dry air and NW winds ahead
of the front will keep high temps mostly in the 70s. Patches of
low clouds are possible Sun morning and high temps will trend
about 5 degrees cooler. SE winds return Mon and surface Td will be
45-50 across most areas underneath weak NW flow aloft. Steep mid-
level LRs and se upslope flow is enough for slight chance PoPs
INVOF Davis Mtns- FST Mon PM. A stronger cold front comes into
play across the n late on Tue, most areas will see a sharp warm-up
on Tue ahead of the front with light post-frontal precip possible
Wed along with much cooler temps. Yet another cold front is
possible Thur as mid- level ridge amplifies to w and trough
deepens to the e. NW flow aloft persists on Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions will commence shortly over southeastern New
Mexico and far west Texas as the dryline translates east to roughly
a Lovington NM to Marfa TX line. Relative humidity values west of
the dryline are 5-15% and southwest winds are gusting to over 25
mph. Dry fine fuels will support rapid growth, and the strength
of the winds should make control difficult if ignition occurs. The
current Red Flag Warning looks good at this time and no areal
changes are anticipated. The dryline is expected to move little
overnight, and relative humidity recovery will be poor west of the
dryline. Winds will diminish west of the dryline, however, and
the warning expiration of 8 pm CDT (7 pm MDT) looks good for now.

Near-critical conditions (relative humidity values below 15% with
20` winds 15-20 mph) are forecast for Saturday for an area generally
south and west of a Carlsbad NM to Sanderson TX line. ERCs from TICC
(http://tic.tamu.edu/Documents/PredictiveServices/Fuels/erc_map.htm)
show fuels around the 97th percentile with a max Red Flag Threat
Index value of 5 Saturday afternoon.  Given these conditions, a
short-fused Red Flag Warning may be needed for Saturday afternoon,
with the Guadalupe Mountains south and east into the Big Bend the
most likely areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  77  45  72 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       48  79  45  75 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         57  86  50  79 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  53  80  46  76 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  75  47  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          46  74  40  72 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  77  40  73 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           54  79  45  74 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  79  45  74 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           49  81  45  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12