


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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635 FXUS64 KMAF 121646 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A wetter and cooler weather pattern looks to set up this weekend lasting through much of next week. Isolated rainfall amounts in excess of an inch result in increased flash flooding concerns. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect. - There will also be a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend with strong winds the main threat. - Drier and warmer conditions return for many late next week, though isolated rain chances hang around in our western portions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Current radar shows an MCS propagating southeast across the South Plains this morning aided by an upper level disturbance. Various models show the best chance for rain today will be associated with this system as it moves into the northern and eastern Permian Basin later this morning and early afternoon. Other showers and thunderstorms will develop across the remainder of the area with the Davis and Guadalupe mountains having the next best chance for rainfall. Other areas will see more widely scattered activity. Flash flooding will be the main threat...in urban areas in the Permian Basin and creeks, draws, and arroyos in the mountains. There is also a chance that some storms could become marginally severe with strong winds the main threat and large hail a secondary and smaller threat. Rain chances continue tomorrow across the area as an upper level shear axis remains near the area. The main forecast question is where this area of instability ultimately is located. Latest model runs have it a little farther east than previous model runs which would also take rain chances to the east as well. The current forecast is for highest PoPs in the eastern Permian Basin into the Big Bend with decreasing rain chances farther west. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will be below normal with highs holding only to the 80s and lower 90s. Cloud cover, scattered showers, outflow boundaries, and low heights aloft will all contribute to keeping temperatures pleasant for this time of year. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure centers to our west and east remain stationary in the extended period keeping a weakness between the two situated over the eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The presence of this instability will keep rain chances in the forecast though lower than what is expected in the short term. Much of the precipitation will be driven by diurnal afternoon heating and outflow boundaries from early convection. Models have difficulty forecasting such features beyond 48 hours so confidence in the precipitation forecast in the extended is lower and reflected in lower PoPs. Temperatures throughout next week slowly rise as the eastern high exerts a greater influence and pushes back into the CWA. Still, highs will be generally at or below normal for this time of year continuing a summer that has not been as brutally hot as other recent summers. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours except in areas of direct convection, the best chances of which will occur in the first half of the forecast as perturbations move southeast into the area. Skies will gradually clear after 06Z Sunday, but forecast soundings develop a widespread, low-based cu field by late morning Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 90 69 88 68 / 30 60 40 40 Carlsbad 89 69 89 68 / 50 30 30 40 Dryden 94 73 92 73 / 20 30 40 40 Fort Stockton 93 70 91 70 / 40 40 50 40 Guadalupe Pass 83 66 83 64 / 30 20 30 30 Hobbs 86 66 87 67 / 40 50 20 40 Marfa 87 63 84 63 / 60 40 60 40 Midland Intl Airport 90 69 87 70 / 40 50 40 50 Odessa 89 69 86 69 / 40 40 40 50 Wink 90 69 89 69 / 40 50 30 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea- Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...99