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000
FXUS64 KMAF 151901
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough has moved east as high pressure builds in from the
west.  The next upper trough moves ashore the west coast early
Monday reaching the Great Basin Tuesday morning and crossing the
Rockies later in the day.  As it swings east weak high pressure will
return Wednesday before the next upper trough moves ashore the CA
coast.  This closed low will quickly roll east reaching the Four
Corners region early Friday and crossing the Panhandle that evening.
After that high pressure returns.

Had a chilly start to the morning... Marfa got down to 25... but
temps warming quickly under sunny skies.  Airmass very dry with
dewpts in the single digits to teens.  Can expect above normal
temps Monday as some 90s return.  Tuesday should be windy as
surface trough extends southward from a low in KS down across the
area with a gusty west wind behind it... should also be the
warmest day of the week.  Can expect a high wind event in the
Guadalupes that day.  A cold front moves through the area early
Wednesday knocking temps back down to near normal.  Friday could
be another windy day ahead of the next cold front Saturday.

Thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and Friday ahead of
the upper low.  The eastern counties look most favorable as a
dryline becomes established.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the near normal temperatures and continued dry conditions
across the area, lighter winds today have provided a bit of reprieve
from the critical fire weather conditions of the past few days, with
only near critical conditions expected through this afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains. However, the reprieve will be brief, as
temperatures Monday climb above normal, with increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of another trough across the west,
and a tightening surface pressure gradient across the area. With
very poor recovery expected from the Guadalupe Mtns southward to the
Davis Mountains tonight and fair recovery east, RHs Monday in the
warm, windy conditions will fall to the single digits for most of
the area, and 10-15% for the far eastern Permian Basin and Terrell
county.  While the strongest winds will be across the Guadalupe
Mtns, SE NM Plains, Van Horn Area, and portions of the Permian
Basin/Lower Trans Pecos yielding RFTIs of 5-7 (8 in the Guadalupes),
RFTIs of 3-4 just to the east warrant inclusion of Mitchell,
Glasscock, Upton, Reagan, and Terrell counties in the current RFW
for Monday. However, winds look to remain significantly lighter in
the Big Bend Area, thus only near-critical conditions are expected
there.

Monday night, recovery will be poor across the western half of the
area, and fair east, with potential for good recovery across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where moisture return
will be more pronounced. However, RHs will plummet to the single
digits for all but far eastern zones Tuesday afternoon as warm,
downsloping southwesterly winds increase to 20-30mph with higher
gusts for most of the area (with stronger winds across the Guadalupe
Mountains). Higher-end critical conditions are expected on Tuesday
given the stronger winds and drier conditions, as ERCs will likely
be in the 90th percentile+ for the entire area. RFTIs Monday
afternoon will range from 9 across the Guadalupe Mountains and
adjacent plains, southward into the Van Horn Area, to around 2-4
across the southeastern Permian Basin southwestward to the Big Bend
Area. Needless to say, another RFW will be needed in later forecast
issuances for Tuesday.

A weak cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday will ease fire
weather concerns midweek as winds shift to the northeast and become
lighter behind the front, though temperatures will remain above
normal and RHs will still be under 15% Wednesday afternoon.
Considerable uncertainty remains late next week, depending on the
location of the dryline, though critical conditions may return
Thursday for portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  90  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  53  93  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  86  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           45  92  53  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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