658
FXUS64 KMAF 100758
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Temperatures will increase through Friday afternoon, when highs
  will average a couple of degrees above normal, and chances of
  rain decrease.

- A wet and cooler weather pattern is in store beginning this
  weekend lasting through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis has an upper-level
high pressure system over the Desert Southwest and Baja California
region. Additionally, a shortwave trough is prevalent over the Great
Plains, thanks to weak ridging in place. Today looks to be
similar as yesterday besides being a bit warmer with high
temperatures reaching the low to upper 90s regionwide. Many
locations will stay dry as the upper high from the west slides
slightly further to the east. High resolution guidance has another
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developing in central New
Mexico progressing south-southeastward into southeast New Mexico
late this afternoon into the evening. Guidance also has additional
storm development overnight in the Hill Country propagating
northwestward. A few locations in the Lower Trans Pecos and far
eastern Permian Basin could see storms Friday morning, though
confidence is very low of this occurring. Lightning, heavy
rainfall, and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph are expected to be the
main hazards with these storms.

Friday, the upper high pressure system remains in a similar position
compared with Thursday. Guidance has a shortwave trough moving
through the Southern and Central Plains, providing increased storm
coverage across the region Friday afternoon into the evening. The
axis of the trough looks to extend from the northern Texas
Panhandle, to the Caprock, and to the higher terrain of far west
Texas. Therefore, storm development seems to be most favorable (15-
40%) for portions of southeast New Mexico, northern Permian Basin,
and the higher terrain. Similar hazards from Thursday`s storms are
anticipated with stronger wind gusts being prevalent. Forecast
soundings depict "inverted-V" profiles indicating a wind gust threat
for the strongest storms (up to 55 mph). Friday is also going to be
the warmest day of the week with temperatures spanning from the 90s
to lower triple digits. A cooler and wetter pattern shapes up
heading into the long-term.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A wet pattern and cooler than normal temperatures looks to be in
store this weekend through at least early next week. Saturday,
the upper high over the Desert Southwest retrogrades slightly
westward, while a broad area of high pressure sits over the Gulf.
Circulation from the eastern high pressure is going to continue to
pull in Gulf moisture. Both of these systems will also allow
troughing over west Texas and southeast New Mexico throughout the
weekend into early next week. Daily isolated to scattered showers
and storms with cooler temperatures are going to be prevalent over
the region because of the combination of troughing and Gulf
moisture in place. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the
80s to lower 90s for most locations for much of the period.
Forecast soundings have PWATs remaining around the climatological
75-90th percentile, as well as "inverted-V" profiles suggesting a
heavy rainfall and thunderstorm wind gust threat Saturday through
Monday. Ensemble guidance even has consistent 1.2-1.5" mean PWATs,
matching with the aforementioned climatological percentiles. This
pattern from long-range guidance persists through the middle of
next week as long range deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
agreement with multiple troughs moving near the region.
Uncertainty lies in how much rainfall there will be, along with
the extent of rain/storm coverage during this timeframe.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  72  94  74 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 96  71  98  72 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                   95  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  71  93  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                    93  69  94  69 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    89  64  93  66 /  10   0  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   94  72  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     96  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10