Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

18Z TAF issuance...

Currently have VFR conditions across this board and expect no flight
category changes through midnight. Gusty southeast winds look to
persist at all terminals through much of the TAF period and may
increase to near 25kt sustained for a short time around mid-late
afternoon. Elevated SE winds overnight will bring in a bit of
moisture and MVFR stratus appears likely for at least HOB, INK and
MAF from around midnight through the morning hours Friday.
Otherwise, there is a chance for a few thunderstorms to affect CNM
and PEQ later this evening. Any thunderstorm will be capable of
producing gusty and erratic winds.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

High pressure building into Texas will give us another cool day
today with highs in the 70s and 80s. An upper low over the western
U.S. will cause southeast winds to increase this afternoon, but
a surface ridge axis will remain over central Texas until tonight
preventing significant moisture return until then. That will
delay and reduce convective development across our area with the
best rain chances not occurring until late Friday afternoon and
into Friday night as the upper low moves into Texas. Strong winds
located on the southern periphery of the low will mix into the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and a High Wind Watch
has been issued. The low pushes a cold front through the area
Saturday keeping temperatures near normal.

There is a model consensus of an upper ridge over the Great
Plains next week with weak disturbances moving around or through
the ridge. However there is a large disparity between the models
regarding the location and timing of these disturbances, lowering
the medium range forecast confidence. Usually such weak flow
regimes suggest near normal temps due to a lack of strong
subsidence or cold air advection so the extended forecast follows
this reasoning. MEX guidance goes above normal TUE/WED and thus have
trended closer to the ECE. The low confidence and location of any
disturbances next week prevents introducing PoPs any higher than
slight chance at this time.


Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be present
across much of the area this afternoon. Temperatures will be near or
slightly below normal, but wind speeds will increase to 20 mph or
more across much of the area by late afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values will be at or near 15 percent across the Permian
Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
RFTI values will get up to 3 across portions of the Permian Basin,
southeast New Mexico, Big Bend area, Guadalupe Mountains, and Trans
Pecos. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire Danger
Statement for this afternoon for the whole area except the far
eastern Permian Basin and Terrell County.

Minimum relative humidity values of 15 percent or less will be
present across areas generally west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Friday. Winds speeds will increase areawide with speeds of 20 mph or
more across many areas with much higher speeds in the Guadalupe
Mountains. RFTI values will be low except for areas west of the
Upper Trans Pecos where values up to 7 will be possible across
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains late Friday afternoon.
Temperatures for Friday will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Decided not to issue a fire weather product for Friday at this point
due to the small area that will be impacted and low end red flag
criteria present. Will let later shifts reevaluate this situation
for Friday.


Big Spring                     77  52  72  56 /   0  10  20  70
Carlsbad                       77  52  81  47 /  10  10  30  10
Dryden                         79  56  77  57 /  10  10  20  40
Fort Stockton                  77  53  80  52 /  10  10  20  40
Guadalupe Pass                 71  50  76  47 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          74  50  73  47 /   0  10  40  40
Marfa                          75  46  83  43 /  10  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  54  73  55 /   0  10  20  50
Odessa                         77  54  74  54 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           79  54  80  50 /  10  10  30  30


NM...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.



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