Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will increase
to 25 to 35 mph and gusty by mid to late morning and continue
this afternoon through early this evening. Low level moisture
will also be on the increase today with VFR ceilings developing
this morning and continuing into this evening. A strong upper
level storm system and dryline will combine to bring a chance or
tempo MVFR conditions in tsra and blowing dust to most terminals
(except KCNM) late this afternoon and this evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Great Basin this morning will roll east today
reaching the Rockies by afternoon.  This low will cross onto the
plains Saturday then move east with high pressure building in
behind it. The next upper trough moves ashore the West Coast
Sunday but does not make it to the plains till mid week.

Looks to be a windy day across much of the area... will start out
with a low level jet then later in the day stronger winds aloft will
mix down to the surface.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the Guadalupe Mountains with a Wind Advisory for the Permian Basin
and portions of the Trans Pecos and SE NM plains.

As of 08z best low level moisture is shunted west with dewpts in 40s
W and SW but moisture is increasing areawide with a steady SE fetch.
As the upper low approaches a surface trough/dryline will develop
across the area today as a westerly wind moves in from Northern
Mexico/Far West TX.  East of the dryline expect decent low level
moisture with dewpts into the 50s.  There could be a few storms
during the morning but thunderstorm chances will increase during the
afternoon and evening along and east of the dryline.  There will be
a marginal risk of severe storms basically along the NM/TX border
with large hail and damaging wind the main concerns. The highest
pops will be NE late.  With abundant cloud cover highs today
should be in the 70s east with 80s west where sun more prevalent.
On Saturday a cold front will move down into the area... timing of
this front will affect afternoon highs across the Permian Basin
and SE NM. Highs should be in the 70s north Saturday with 80s
farther south and 90s along the Rio Grande. Sunday will be the
cool day with highs mainly in the 70s but 80s return Monday with
readings warming Tuesday. Next cold front late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Models also develop some scattered precip in the
extended with next upper trough... will see if this turns out to
be reasonable as time gets closer.

FIRE WEATHER...
No changes were made to the ongoing fire weather forecast. Potent
upper level storm system approaching the four corners region will
move slowly toward the central rockies by this evening. Dryline
will sharpen significantly today with daytime heating and head east
from central New Mexico to a Hobbs, Pecos, Alpine line by early this
evening. Behind the dryline generally gusty west winds of 20 to 30
mph is expected (higher in the mountains) with min rh/s of 5 to 15
percent. This will result in maximum RFTI values ranging from 6 to 8
across western sections of southeast New Mexico plains Zone 115 and
the Guadalupe Mountains to RFTI values of 2 from near Hobbs south to
Alpine. Extremely dry fuels will continue and critical fire
weather conditions are expected late this morning through mid
evening. Conditions will improve this evening as winds diminish
with nocturnal cooling but overnight recovery will remain poor in
the warned area.

The aforementioned upper level storm system will move across the
southern plains on Saturday. Cooler temperatures and decreasing wind
speeds yield RFTI values of 2 to 4 mainly west of the Pecos River in
southwest Texas with elevated to mainly near critical conditions
expected.

Fire weather concerns should ease Sunday and Monday as temperatures
cool and moisture increases behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  52  74  44 /  20  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       82  48  78  46 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         78  55  92  49 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  82  54  80  46 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  73  48 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          72  46  71  41 /  30  20   0   0
Marfa                          83  43  75  40 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  52  78  44 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         74  53  77  44 /  20  30   0   0
Wink                           82  47  81  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Crane-
     Ector-Glasscock-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

12/72


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