Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190536 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low with rain showers transitioning to upslope snow showers and lingering into early Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday... Surface low has transitioned across the forecast area, with the cold front also moving east of the forecast area. Line of post frontal showers gradually shifting east, with some gusty winds. Expect a brief break across the middle Ohio River Valley before have POPs on the increase as an upper level low moves into the region. Keep lingering showers across the eastern mountains between the two features. Cold air starting to surge in behind the front, and think mid level temperatures will be cold enough to start supporting a transition to snow across the mountains by about 12Z. Could even get some flakes across the lower elevations as the precipitation tapers off... however moisture exits pretty quickly so not expecting much more than some flurries into this afternoon across the lowlands. Generally have an inch or two of snow accumulation across the highest ridges. today into tonight. Behind the cold front, expect gusty winds to linger today. Strongest winds will be across the higher ridges, where a wind advisory is already in effect. Today will be rather chilly...especially across the eastern mountains where steady to even slowly falling temperatures are expected. Farther west, we should see some warming this afternoon but temps still expected to be 15 degrees or more below normal. Tonight should bring temperatures near or below freezing. Plan to make some decisions on potential frost/freeze headlines early this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Wednesday... High pressure builds from the northwest Friday, making for a sunny day warming to the mid- to upper-50`s in the lowlands (40`s to near 50 in the mountains). Saturday morning has the best chance at reaching the Freeze Watch/Warning mark with continued (albeit weak) CAA from the north, calm winds, and clear skies opening the door for a good radiational cooling night. A warm trend starts Saturday with temperatures climbing into the 60`s in the lowlands under mostly sunny skies. High pressure begins to erode, though not entirely, as it shifts toward the East Saturday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... The warm trend continues with SE flow between a Northeast high pressure area and southern low pressure system through the end of the weekend and into the early part of the next workweek. Expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the mid- to upper 60`s in the lowlands on Sunday and to near 70 for Monday through Wednesday. Expect greater cloud coverage toward the southern counties than the northern. These conditions are contingent on the movement of the aforementioned southern low. At this time, models agree that a closed-low aloft will interrupt the otherwise ridging pattern of the Westerlies. It will shift from the Central Plains toward the East Coast through the long term period, as will its associated surface low pressure and rain/storms. Models do differ on timing, though more importantly they differ in impacts here. In general, the low will stay to the South of this area. However, a shortwave trough aloft will eventually ingest the closed-low over the eastern CONUS sometime mid-next week - which would bring rain showers at least into our southern and mountainous areas. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Thursday... A cold front has passed east of the forecast area, with an area of showers lingering behind it. Mostly VFR right now, but should see ceilings gradually dropping into MVFR as colder air moves in below an upper level low. This will also provide lingering rain or snow showers. Could get some brief reductions in visibility in these showers but hard to time any of this out. Winds will be gusty -- generally out of the west and northwest today into tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L L M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H M H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for WVZ516-518-520-522>524- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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