


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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667 FXUS66 KMTR 131228 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 528 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages with a more noticeable cooling trend beginning Tuesday. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows the stratus layer blooming inland into the Sonoma County valleys, the East Bay, Silicon Valley, the Monterey Bay region, and the Salinas Valley. Profilers from Bodega Bay, Fort Ord, and Point Sur are depicting a marine layer around 1500 ft deep, conducive to extensive inland stratus development through the rest of the night, before the clouds retreat to the immediate coast during the morning. The marine layer should compress somewhat through the day with a weak ridge axis slowly retrograding across the state, but some inland stratus is still expected tonight. Morning lows range in the middle to upper 50s for the lower elevations, to the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations. High temperatures reach the 80s into the lower 90s inland, with highs in the upper 90s or near 100 expected at the southern reaches of Monterey and Salinas and places in the far interior Bay Area adjacent to the Central Valley. Elsewhere, the Bayshore should see highs in the 70s and lower 80s, downtown San Francisco should rise to near 66, and the Pacific Coast should see highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Onshore winds will develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 25 mph through favored gaps and passes and within the Salinas Valley. Localized elevated fire weather threat persists across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20-35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25- 40%, and localized gusts to 25 mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However, the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Monday through Saturday) Expect Monday to feature similar conditions to today. Late on Monday, a shortwave trough, or perhaps a weak cutoff low, develops into the Pacific Northwest, pushing the ridge axis towards the west and north and causing a noticeable cooling trend to begin on Tuesday and lasting for at least the following two days. High temperatures drop into the middle 70s to middle 80s inland and the upper 60s to the middle 70s along the Bayshore, with the coast remaining rather stable at the upper 50s to lower 60s. Towards the end of the forecast period, the forecast becomes a little more uncertain. Ensemble model cluster analysis points to weak ridging (i.e. warmer temperatures) and weak troughing (i.e. cooler temperatures) by Friday, with the differences compounding through the upcoming weekend into the early part of the following week, when a significant ridge and a significant trough are possible across the western United States. With the two scenarios having nearly equal probabilities, there is not enough confidence at this time to deviate from the default NBM forecast, which depicts a gradual warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend. CPC outlooks suggest a slight lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages in the 8-14 day period (July 20-26). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The forecast is on repeat, which means after this morning`s surge of stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle clouds should retreat back to the coast leading to VFR conditions for the afternoon. Another night of IFR to LIFR cigs is expected as the marine layer surges inland this evening and into the overnight hours. Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows stratus blanking the San Francisco Bay this morning. Guidance shows stratus potentially starting to erode between 14-17Z with stratus likely hugging the west side of the San Mateo county throughout the day. This may lead to low clouds meandering around the San Bruno approach, though VFR conditions should be expected east of there and around the Bay. West to west- northwest winds look to pick up with gusts up to 20-25kt beginning late this morning and continuing through the evening. Winds should decrease to less than 15kt before 6Z, with stratus likely starting to slink in around that time as well. Another night of low cigs is expected. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is socked in around the Monterey Bay and associated valleys, with webcams, weather stations, and manual observations showing reduced fog or even drizzle in some areas. Expect cloudy, foggy, and drizzly conditions for the next couple of hours, with conditions starting to improve mid to late morning. Stratus should retreat to the coast, leaving us a period of VFR conditions this afternoon. The forecast will be on repeat tonight, leading to low cigs and reduced vis returning. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 307 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Light to moderate breezes are expected through Monday, with seas subtly subsiding today. Seas begin to build Monday, as winds begin to take on a more northerly component especially in the northern most outer waters. Hazardous marine conditions of fresh to strong northerly breezes and very rough seas at times are expected on Tuesday for far northwestern portions of the northern outer waters. Winds then decrease heading into Wednesday, with gentle to moderate breezes through Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea