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000
FXUS66 KMTR 171130
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
430 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather conditions are expected across
the region today. A weather system approaching from the northwest
may bring scattered showers to primarily the North Bay late
tonight and Wednesday, and will also keep temperatures on the
cool side of normal through Thursday. Warmer weather is forecast
on Friday and Saturday, with slight cooling then expected for
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Drier air has made its
way into our region after the departure of yesterday`s frontal
system. Skies remain mostly clear early this morning with only
patchy low clouds and a few thin high clouds drifting by. Expect
mostly sunny skies today along with mild temperatures. Highs are
forecast to be mostly in the 70s to lower 80s, except 60s along
the immediate coast.

Early morning satellite imagery shows an upper trough off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest, moving to the southeast. Like the
system that brought rain to our region yesterday, this one also
has a fairly decent moisture tap with precipitable water values as
high as 1.5 inches. However, this incoming system is forecast to
have more of an inland trajectory, which means less potential for
widespread rainfall across our area when the system moves through
late tonight and Wednesday. Based on a consensus of model data,
showers may begin in the North Bay shortly after midnight tonight
and then spread as far south as the San Francisco Peninsula and
East Bay on Wednesday morning. Isolated showers may linger into
Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals are generally forecast to be
less than a tenth of an inch, although the 06Z HRRR forecasts
isolated amounts up to a half inch in the hills of the North Bay.
This system will usher a cooler airmass into our region, and high
temperatures on Wednesday will mostly be in the upper 60s and
70s. Locally breezy conditions will develop near the coast and in
the hills on Wednesday afternoon as northwest winds increase.

The upper trough is forecast to move into the Great Basin by
Thursday morning and drier northerly flow will develop over our
area at that time. Earlier model runs indicated the potential for
gusty northerly winds in our hills late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, but most recent models forecast only moderate
wind speeds. Temperatures will begin to warm in portions of our
area on Thursday, but still remain at or below seasonal averages.

An upper ridge is forecast to develop along the West Coast by late
Friday and onshore flow will diminish and perhaps transitions to
light offshore. These developments will result in warmer weather
on Friday and Saturday with high temperatures warming into the 70s
and lower 80s near the coast, and 80s and lower 90s inland.

The models generally agree that the ridge will weaken and shift to
our east by Sunday as a trough approaches from the northwest.
Thus, Sunday will likely be at least a few degrees cooler than
Saturday, with low clouds potentially returning to coastal areas
as onshore flow redevelops.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 04:30 AM PDT Tuesday...For 12z tafs. VFR
conditions through this evening. Expect increasing cloud layers
this evening and overnight as well as marginal LLWS over the North
and East Bay. At this time, looks weak enough to be left out of
the tafs, but will re-evaluate with the next model runs. MVFR
conditions may develop towards the end of the taf period along
with increasing shower chances late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Generally light winds increasing and becoming onshore this
afternoon 10-15 kt with locally higher winds at KOAK and KSFO.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through late tonight. Increasing cigs
expected this evening and overnight with possible MVFR conditions
early tomorrow morning. W winds around 10 kt becoming around 15
kt this afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions through late tonight
before possible MVFR/IFR cigs develop over the peninsula by early
tomorrow morning. Generally light winds becoming onshore around
10-15 kt this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...As of 2:46 AM PDT Tuesday...Light west to northwest
winds will persist through late this week aside from locally
breezy afternoon and evening winds along the inner coastal waters
south of Pigeon Point and over the bays. A front will move through
Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing a slight chance of showers
to the northern waters Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Northwesterly winds will increase at the end of the week. Mixed
seas will continue with moderate period northwest swell and a
light southerly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 2 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: AS

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