Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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001 FXUS63 KILX 031807 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20% chance for a thunderstorm west of I-55 this evening. If a storm develops, it could produce locally gusty winds and hail. - There is a 40-50% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The strongest storms could produce locally damaging wind gusts and hail. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 At 18z/1pm, SPC`s mesoanalysis suggested 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE across central Illinois, but effective bulk shear under 20 kt and lack of a forcing mechanism suggests we might just escape without storms today. The 12z NAMNest and FV3 suggest something might clip our west where one/more convective outflow boundaries could stall, so we`ll have one eye on the radar, but at this point convection is expected to stay to our northwest and southwest until tomorrow. In the meantime, we`ll enjoy an afternoon of summer-like warmth as temps continue to climb into the upper 80s and dewpoints hover about 20 degrees lower. The deterministic models bring some sort of meso-low/MCV out of the Central Plains and into the region tomorrow morning/early afternoon, with CAMs varying considerably in their depiction of convection firing near it. The HRRR and ARW have storms developing across our west and central CWA, while the FV3 has storms mainly east of I-57 and the NAMNest has them split across our area - some storms near/south of I-72 and others west of the IL River. Given there will be more shear tomorrow in the vicinity of this MCV, storms would have the potential to be a bit more sustained, though instability is less certain and will ultimately depend on whether any breaks in cloud cover can materialize ahead of it. Sometimes these MCVs can produce "sneaky" severe weather events, so we`ll have one eye on things. The output from the CAMs certainly suggests a threat for localized damaging wind gusts and hail with storms - wherever they track - tomorrow afternoon, but widespread and/or significant severe weather is not anticipated. In terms of temps tomorrow, highs should be generally a few degrees cooler than today given (1) convection, (2) cloud cover, and (3) increasing low level moisture with WAA ahead of the cold front slated to arrive tomorrow night. High temps will vary considerably by location (NBM`s 10th-90th range is mid 70s to mid 80s) for these reasons, though we`ve got low 80s in the forecast area-wide due to lack of confidence in the exact placement of convection/clouds. Then attention turns to another round of possible showers and storms along the cold front tomorrow night. However, depending on how overturned the atmosphere is from afternoon storms with the aforementioned MCV, there may not be much instability leftover to fuel convection along the front - especially with it moving into the area so late. We will have a LLJ maintaining warm/moisture transport conducive to at least marginal elevated instability, but with even the 90th percentile sfc-500mb wind shear from LREF at only ~30-35 kt along the front it`s not like we`re going to have so much shear that it makes up for the lack of instability and results in widespread storms. In fact, the 12z CAMs are suggesting the upstream line of storms will break apart and much of the area could miss out on rain altogether tomorrow night. Near/east of I-57, however, renewed development is a possibility (see the 12z NAMNest) Wednesday should the front slow down at all. We`ll keep an eye on that, but for now have lowered PoPs slightly tomorrow night into Wednesday; we may need to further lower those in forthcoming forecast updates if the trend toward more sparse convection along the front continues. Once the cold front clears the area, surface high pressure will build in to hopefully keep us dry for a while. However, with temps aloft cooling considerably (GFS has 850mb temps dropping to sub 2 degC across northern Illinois late Thursday), we can`t completely rule out a surface based instability driven shower or storm Wednesday through Friday; coverage would be sparse at any rate, so we`ve kept PoPs around 10% (i.e., sub-mentionable) through that time period. This weekend into early next work week, ridging will attempt to build into the region in the wake of the upper trough departing slowly to the northeast, resulting in cool and stable northwest flow. Models generally keep the ridge-riding MCSs to our southwest, but we`ve maintained slight (20%) chances for precip early next week for the possibility one of them sets up far enough northeast to clip our area. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There is a low chance (20-30%) for a stray shower or storm to develop west of I-55 this afternoon into early evening, but coverage should be pretty limited. Southerly winds with occasional gusts to around 20 kts will continue through early evening before lessening overnight. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$