Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Latest surface analysis indicates a cold front was inching its way
east through central Iowa with low to mid 60 dew points streaming
north ahead of the boundary. Southerly winds and cloud cover early
this morning helping to keep temperatures well above normal for this
time of year with most areas in the 65 to 70 degree range. VAD wind
profiles across the region showing a 40-45 kt low level jet
positioned from central Missouri northeast into southern Lake
Michigan with the better moisture convergence noted from northeast
Missouri into north central Illinois.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly develop to our west and
are expected to track across the forecast area this morning into the
early afternoon hours before shifting off to our east, with areas
along the I-70 corridor not seeing much, if any rainfall today.
Cloud cover once again will pose a problem with afternoon
temperatures with most of the forecast soundings indicating some
breaks in the clouds by mid to late afternoon, which should allow
temperatures once again to climb into the mid 70s far northeast,
where the clouds will hold on the longest, to the lower 80s across
our south and western counties. With the frontal boundary expected
to be well to our north tonight, southerly winds will keep low
temperatures well above normal again with most locations seeing the
mercury only drop off into the mid to upper 60s. Normal lows this
time of year should be in the middle 40s!


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Conditions still on target for unseasonably warm weather on Monday,
with 850 mb temperatures rising to near 20-22C by afternoon. Healthy
mixing down from that level will yield record or near-record high
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Concern remains
with wind speeds during the day, as this mixing will also be tapping
into a low level jet increasing to around 45-50 knots. Have
increased wind gusts to around 30-35 mph, with the NAM and GFS
Bufkit soundings indicating potential closer to around 40 mph.
Breezy conditions will continue into Monday night with the low level
jet remaining rather high.

Potent storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest will shear
out and quickly track into the upper Mississippi Valley by Monday
night, helping to shunt the warmest air southward, but highs on
Tuesday still should reach the low-mid 80s in most areas. A more
significant trough will dig as it moves out of the Rockies into the
Plains late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Frontal boundary
associated with the earlier wave will largely cross the CWA dry
Tuesday evening, before becoming stationary as it parallels the
upper flow. The various models indicate some overrunning
precipitation forming by late Tuesday night, with the NAM and ECMWF
mainly along and north of I-70 with this, while the GFS and Canadian
have it closer to the Ohio River. Leaned more toward the northern
solution at this point, with the highest PoP`s Wednesday night and
early Thursday, as an area of low pressure rides along the boundary
and begins to pull it eastward.

The ECMWF and GFS feature a broad longwave trough moving through the
Mississippi Valley by Thursday. The latter is a bit deeper and
cooler with this feature, but both suggest a trend toward drier
weather. Have kept some slight chance PoP`s going over the eastern
CWA into Friday with the wave overhead, but Saturday should be dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions will prevail to start with scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing and moving across the TAF
sites overnight. Scattered precip has already developed along I-55
and back to the west. This will continue overnight and into the
morning hours further east. Cigs will start in the VFR category
but then fall into the MVFR category for all sites. However, PIA
and BMI will last longer in the MVFR range during the morning and
afternoon hours given their closeness to the main part of the
front, that will stay north of all sites. The scattered precip
will continue at all sites through about 18z, but then dissipate
at SPI/DEC/CMI. PIA and BMI should see some scattered showers
continue into the early morning hours. Cigs at all sites will rise
during the afternoon hours, but remain broken at all sites. Could
be some clearing at SPI/DEC/CMI, but unsure. Expecting broken cigs
to continue at PIA and CMI into the evening hours. Winds will
remain south to southwest through the period with speeds around
10-15kts. Models suggest low level wind shear tonight so have
added it at all sites with max 45kts at 2kft expected into the
early morning hours.


Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Record highs for Monday:

Charleston....... 88 (1950)
Decatur.......... 89 (1950)
Effingham........ 85 (1965)
Galesburg........ 87 (1950)
Jacksonville..... 89 (1964)
Lawrenceville.... 85 (1963)
Lincoln.......... 87 (1935)
Normal........... 86 (1938)
Peoria........... 86 (1950)
Springfield...... 86 (1964)
Urbana........... 87 (1950)


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Geelhart
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