Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
399 FXUS63 KILX 091037 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 537 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph could lead to blowing dust this afternoon into early evening. - Comfortable temperatures will persist through about midweek before things turn hot and humid late in the week. - Precipitation chances look slim the next 7 days, with only a few low-end chances (<20%) late in the week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning just north of Lake Huron with northwest flow over the Midwest states. Surface ridging has started nosing into the middle Mississippi Valley and will control the weather pattern through early week, keeping things somewhat cooler than normal. Breezy northwest winds become common this afternoon as the pressure gradient becomes pinched between the encroaching high and a surface low to the northeast. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to about 700 mb developing by this afternoon, with momentum transfer winds as high as 20-30 kts. The 09.00Z HREF has high chances for wind gusts in excess of 25 mph north of a Havana to Champaign line, with probabilities dropping below 40% for 30 mph or greater. Winds of this magnitude caused issues with blowing dust late last week, and with little or no rain since then similar conditions will likely develop. Ridging amplifies over the western CONUS going into Monday with a few upper lows working to flatten the ridge as it spills into the central CONUS. Flow aloft will become more zonal by Midweek with another upper high building over the southwest US. Mid-level heights will gradually rise as this ridge gets kicked eastward going into next weekend, turning things hot and humid. Precipitation chances look rather slim the next 7 days, though upper shortwave action could push a few frontal systems through late in the week/weekend. Details on these are still far from clarity, so for now held onto the NBM`s occasional 20% precipitation chances. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Northwest winds become breezy later this morning into early afternoon with gusts ranging from 20 to 25 kt. Mid to high clouds will stream across the area today with a trough axis/upper system dropping a corridor of 4 to 6k ft stratus southward around 09Z at northern airfields, then approach southern runways shortly after 12Z. Probabilities for ceilings to fall into MVFR flight conditions is less than 30% as of now. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$