Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141813 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
113 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Please see the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Warming trend continues today and tomorrow with a chance for
light rain/drizzle increasing tonight into Saturday.

On the synoptic scale a progressive pattern across much of North
America will allow for a a series of lows impacting the Pacific
Northwest to eject into parts of southern Canada and the northern
tier of the CONUS. With a strong area of high pressure over the
northeast today and a low developing across the Canadian Prairie
today south winds will increase, bringing a warm and moist airmass
into the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front associated with
this low moves east across the upper Midwest late Saturday, with
instability developing ahead of the front possibly resulting in
thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin late Saturday. Otherwise a
broad area of drizzle/light rain expected ahead of the front
tonight into Saturday due to strong low level convergence along
the North Shore, with the best convergence at the tip of the
Arrowhead from Grand Marais to Grand Portage.

Highs today in the upper 50s to low 60s, except at the tip of the
MN Arrowhead where the south winds will bring some influence from
Lake Superior resulting in highs only around 50. (Lake surface
water temps are in the upper 40s to low 50s per buoy obs and GLERL
analysis.) A mix of sun and clouds through the day...first this
morning mid-level clouds are moving northward in northern
Minnesota while high-level cirrus clouds associated with the
Pacific Northwest system stream across southern Canada and the
northern Plains. Expect these cirrus clouds to not block too much
solar insolation allowing deep mixing at the surface to mix down
gusts to 30-35 mph in the afternoon. Should this cloud cover be
more widespread or thicker than currently anticipated winds could
be slightly less than forecast, but given the strong low level
winds developing ahead of the cold front confidence is high in at
least sporadic gusts in excess of 30 mph.

Tonight winds are expected to remain breezy at the surface as
cloudy skies and continued warm air advection lead to temperatures
only falling to the mid 50s in most locations. Late in the night
into early Saturday drizzle/light rain is expected to develop
along the north shore due to low level convergence. While it could
take until daybreak Saturday for drizzle to be generated, given
the moist low/mid levels currently in place per regional RAOBs and
with low level moisture only continuing to increase over the next
24 hours, thinking drizzle could get started in the evening hours.

Light rain/drizzle possible across parts of far eastern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin Saturday, with afternoon showers and
possibly even a few thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon
across northwest Wisconsin ahead of the cold front passage.
Otherwise cloudy and mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s -
about 15 degrees above normal. South winds shift to west-northwest
winds behind the front through the day Saturday, remaining fairly
light at 5 to 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The cold front that will bring the chance of thunderstorms on
Saturday will move fairly quickly out of the Northland on Saturday
evening. We could see some showers and thunderstorms linger across
eastern portions of the region into the evening before high
pressure brings dry weather for the latter half of the night.
Another low pressure system will already start to bring
precipitation back into the picture on Sunday afternoon, as a
shortwave lifts northeastward in the southwest flow aloft. The
better chance of precipitation will move in Sunday night, and we
may need to continue to increase POP`s for this period based on
continued strengthening of this event. While this system will lift
out of the western Great Lakes region on Monday, we will continue
to see a chance of showers into Tuesday evening. At this point,
the weather is looking fairly dry on Wednesday and Thursday, with
much cooler weather setting up across the Northland. A transition
throughout the period from southwest flow to northwest flow will
mean much cooler weather and unsettled weather for the end of the
long term period. High temperatures over the weekend will range
from the 50s to 60s, while temperatures cool into the 40s to lower
50s from Wednesday into Friday of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with MVFR, and eventually
IFR/LIFR, developing tonight and continuing into Saturday morning.
South to southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching storm system
will draw moisture northward into the area late this afternoon and
tonight. Satellite and surface observations over southern
Minnesota, Iowa, and farther south feature an area of MVFR/IFR
ceilings being drawn northward toward the area. Expect a period of
MVFR ceilings and visibility to arrive by this evening, with
ceilings continuing to lower to IFR a few hours later. NAM model
BUFKIT profiles suggest the low-level moist layer will be deep
enough, with enough shear aloft, to support drizzle overnight.
Ceilings at DLH, HYR, and HIB may continue to lower into LIFR
between 06Z and 12Z. Was not confident in that potential to
include at this time. As winds aloft increase overnight, low-
level wind shear will become a concern at HYR, where the strongest
winds aloft will be found. All sites should see periods of gusty
winds overnight. Think ceilings will lift back to MVFR Saturday
morning, but confidence is below average in CIGS lifting before
cold front arrives from the west. Confidence is above average
through 15.02Z, average between 15.02Z and 15.09Z, and below
average thereafter.


DLH  59  54  64  46 /  10  30  30  10
INL  58  53  63  41 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  63  56  67  44 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  60  55  66  46 /  10  30  40  20
ASX  60  55  66  48 /   0  10  40  20


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141.



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