Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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058
FXUS63 KDLH 260903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL
EXTEND WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE WE FINALLY
LOSE THE LIFT TO PRODUCE ANY MORE THAN CLOUDS.  THE CLOUDS TOO
SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  LOWER CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS FAVOR CLOUD FORMATION IN THOSE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
REMAIN CHILLY IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA...BUT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OR SUNDAY WERE.  HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.   THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE
KICKED OUT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES OUT TO OVER EASTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS STORM SYSTEM IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.  HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE NORTHEAST FLOW GOING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IF A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH AN
OCCASIONALLY CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U. S. AND IN RESPONSE...A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL FORM AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT WILL ALSO KEEP MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND IN THE COLDER AIR
AND EAST WINDS.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS ILLINOIS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
70. LOOKS LIKE MIGHT BE ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO GET A BIT OF
SNOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW WILL WILL BE EJECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY WITH THE LOW PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY. THIS TRACK AGAIN WILL KEEP FAR NORTHERN MN DRY AND HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND WE EXPECT CEILINGS WILL RISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
WILL AID IN PRODUCING FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
IMPACTING KDLH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  28  43  31 /  20   0   0  10
INL  52  27  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  48  32  52  33 /  30  10  20  30
HYR  49  30  55  33 /  20  10  10  20
ASX  43  29  45  32 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DTM/CLC



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