Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 141207
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
707 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

An area of low pressure was located in western South Dakota at 07Z
with a frontal boundary snaking northeastward into northern
Minnesota. A mixture of mid and high clouds covered the forecast
area with some areas of fog. A thunderstorm complex was ongoing
north of the international border. Movement of this complex was
easterly. This should keep the storms north of the border. Did place
some low chance pops along the border from roughly 3am to 6am in
case some leakage occurs. However, any activity that drifts over the
border will encounter MLCIN of 100 to 200 J/kg. The NAM12 and the
CAMs have a good handle on this activity for now and will follow.
This keeps the storms north of the border. By 21Z this afternoon,
the surface low center reaches eastern South Dakota with the
frontal boundary extending northeast through northeast Minnesota.
An embedded piece of short wave energy in the southwest flow
aloft, arrives and initiates some showers and storms over the
northwest corner of the region. The CAMs are in general agreement
with this development and have pops to reflect this approach
through the rest of the afternoon.

The low drifts into southern Minnesota tonight, but the frontal
boundary remains fairly stationary. With more impulses moving over
northern Minnesota, expect additional storms to develop and remain
over far northern Minnesota north of the frontal boundary. The
GFS/ECMWF/GEM try to have some activity form to the south of the
boundary over east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. The
NAM/ARW/NMM favor keeping the activity north of the boundary. Used a
blend of the models for pops which feature some small pops from Pine
county east through much of northwest Wisconsin. Higher pops along
and north of Highway 2.

On Friday, the quasi stationary frontal boundary drifts back to the
northwest and is located from near International Falls southwest to
west central Minnesota. A closed mid level circulation forms over
the Dakotas in the afternoon, while impulses keep drifting into
the region north of the surface boundary. Mid level capping
develops in the morning and weakens in the afternoon. Expect
showers in the morning and early afternoon, adding thunder in the
late afternoon. All models support this scenario, with some models
showing no activity until 21Z or later. Used a blend for pops
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will dominate the weather for
the first portion of the long term period, as a frontal boundary
remains largely stalled across the Upper Midwest. A developing long
wave trough in the western states will hold from Friday night
through Saturday, before a strong upper level wave finally pushes
the front off to the east. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely
Friday night and Saturday, with the potential for strong to locally
severe storms from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The Storm
Prediction Center has our area in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms during that time, largely due to upper level height
falls from the approaching trough, and a warm and humid airmass
along and ahead of the frontal boundary. The upper level trough will
move off to the northeast Saturday night and early Sunday, with high
pressure building in behind the departing wave. This should ensure a
dry last half of the weekend. The upper level models start to
diverge considerably from the early to middle part of next week, and
confidence in any particular solution starts to diminish. The ECMWF
has a major upper level ridge developing across the central United
States by 12Z Wednesday, with the GFS indicating that a massive
western trough will dominate the weather across our area. A lot of
this uncertainty is likely due to questions with regard to Jose off
the East Coast. The consensus solutions do include some small POP`s
for much of the early to mid part of next week, although confidence
is lower. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s and 70s,
although some 50s will be possible on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

A stationary front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the period, although a majority of the precipitation
should be confined to KHIB and KINL starting later today and into
tonight. At KBRD and KDLH there is a chance of precipitation, but
it should remain dry at KHYR. Moisture in the vicinity of the
front should help to set the stage for areas of low clouds and fog
this morning, and again tonight. As a result we could see some
IFR/LIFR conditions during those times, with improvement to
VFR/MVFR during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  58  67  57 /  10  50  40  50
INL  68  56  59  52 /  70  70  60  80
BRD  82  62  73  61 /  10  40  40  60
HYR  83  62  79  63 /   0  20  30  30
ASX  82  58  74  58 /   0  30  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP



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