Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 111025
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
425 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

At 4 AM, snow continued across much of northeast Minnesota.
Meanwhile, drizzle and freezing drizzle continued across east
central Minnesota, the north shore and much of northern
Wisconsin. There was a huge range in temperatures this morning,
with temperatures approaching zero in the far western portion of
the CWA, and in the mid to upper 30s across the eastern CWA, ahead
of the cold front.

The obvious focus for today will be the low pressure system/arctic
front moving across the region. There seems to be pretty good
agreement that there will be two main areas of precipitation
today. The first will be across northeast Minnesota, especially
northwest of Duluth. A look at area road cams and other webcams
indicates that the snow was really accumulating across much of
northeast Minnesota. Roads were snow covered and slippery from Ely
to the Iron Range, and southwest to the Brainerd Lakes region.
South and east of that area, drizzle and freezing drizzle has been
prevalent. As the morning wears on, we should see a band of snow
develop across northwest Wisconsin, as moisture lifts northeast
from the central Plains. Total snow accumulation should range from
3 to 6 inches in the north, to 2 to 4 from Brainerd, to the Twin
Ports and east central Minnesota. In northwest Wisconsin, the
highest amounts are expected east of Hayward and Ashland. Total
snow accumulation through tonight should range from 4 to 7 inches,
with locally higher amounts along the Gogebic Range.

The other big news today will be gusty northwest winds, along with
falling temperatures. Temperatures will drop so rapidly, that we
are expecting a quick freeze in areas that have seen temperatures
above freezing overnight. This will cause roads to become slick
for the morning commute for much of the area. There should be some
blowing snow, especially on the Minnesota side. As a result of the
combined winter weather, we will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory across the Northland today. We will also continue the
Winter Storm Warning for eastern portions of our Wisconsin area.

Temperatures will fall into the 20s and possibly even 30s below
zero range across the north tonight, and we will likely need
wind chill headlines. Will transition this system out before
issuing those headlines so as to not confuse the situation today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The main concerns for the long term include a quick burst of snow
Sunday and Sunday night along with a prolonged period of colder
temperatures.

Arctic air in place across the region Friday evening will linger
through Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and Sunday.
Winds aloft will back westerly and eventually southwesterly,
nudging the Arctic air east toward Quebec. Bitter cold wind
chills are expected Saturday morning between -25 and -40, with
highs remaining near zero for the Northland. The surge of warmer
air will be short lived. Lows Sunday morning will be a few
degrees warmer, in the -10 to -20 range. Highs will warm into the
single digits above zero. A shortwave trough is expected to dive
out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Upper Midwest by Sunday
evening. The clipper will bring a quick burst of light snow with
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches expected. Behind the clipper,
another surge of Arctic air will pour into the region with
temperatures trending cooler for the start of the work week. Wind
chills Monday morning will range from -15 to -40, with the
warmest values in north-central Wisconsin. Temps remain cool on
Tuesday with another warm-up on tap for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Since flight conditions cannot get much worse, the trend will be
for better conditions during this TAF period. Overall, not a good
night to fly. Plenty of IFR and even VLIFR out there. Not
expecting much of an improvement until after the cold front moves
through Thursday afternoon and scours out the low crud, but then
wind will pick up and blow the snow that falls around. Ceilings
may improve to MVFR late in the TAF period with improvements first
at the northerly sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13 -13   1 -17 / 100  10   0   0
INL   3 -30  -4 -27 /  90   0   0   0
BRD   6 -17   2 -20 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  23  -9   6 -17 / 100  20   0   0
ASX  26  -3   7  -9 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ001-
     006-007.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ008-009.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ003-004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ002.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010-011-018-
     019-025-026-033>036.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ012-
     020-021-037-038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ143>145.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Wolfe



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