Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 182022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING A SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TIMING...BUT NOT IN COVERAGE. I LEANED ON A MODEL BLEND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE OVER NW
WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/H85 TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WILL
BRING INCREASING WARMTH AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION SUNDAY.
HAVE KEPT SMALL BROADBRUSH POPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
HIGH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE CAP AND LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
THE BORDERLAND/BWCAW REGION.

FOCUS TURNS TO STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT H85 TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 20 C SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY...LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING BACK
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A VORT
MAX...WITH DEEPENING H85 LOW...ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
DURING THE TUESDAY INTO TIME FRAME. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MN LATE TONIGHT...TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM....BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. HAVE VCSH AT
ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  79  60  81 /  30  30  20  20
INL  60  77  62  85 /  50  10  10  30
BRD  63  81  64  85 /  40  30  10  20
HYR  62  80  64  83 /  10  40  50  10
ASX  61  81  62  85 /   0  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






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