Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 061145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BDRY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS ERN NODAK. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A SVR TRW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. EARLIER SVR STORMS OVER WRN CWA HAVE DECREASED WITH
MAJORITY OF SVR POTENTIAL SHIFTING JUST SW OF CWA. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH STORMS THIS MORNING. A
LARGE AREA OF MDT/HVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SEPARATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

TODAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION..POSSIBLY STRONG OR SEVERE...WILL PUSH INTO WISC BY
18Z AND EAST OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. FROPA WILL USHER IN A GUSTY W TO
NW WIND AS MECHANICAL MIXING OCCURS IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
WARM TEMPS TODAY AS FCST 925 THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS EASTWARD.
EXPECT WARM AIR TO PUSH DOWN TO LAKEFRONT AGAIN AS OFFSHORE
COMPONENT INCREASES DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT...STRONG SFC LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
PRESS GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE REGION. MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DECOUPLING OF BDRY LYR. RESULT COULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT SO LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST.

TOMORROW...MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER UPPER MIDWEST AS SHORTWAVE
TROF DRIVES SOUTHWARD INTO NODAK/NW MN VICINITY BY LATE AFTN. DEEP
LAYER MOISTENING IS FCST TO OCCUR WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING. MULTI
MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN OVER MOST OF
CWA...WITH HIGHER PROB OVER WRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS IN THE EVENING AND
DIMINISHES A BIT OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLD TSRA WORDING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST AND HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER ON
TUESDAY. ONE MORE SHORT WAVE CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH COOLER DUE TO CAA. HAVE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF LEAVES AND
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. THE HIGH IS THEN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT FINDS A RETURN TO A WARM...MUGGY PATTERN AS
WAA GETS UNDERWAY. INSTABILITY IMPROVES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROVIDES ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN FA. STILL FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA AND
HAVE JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED. ON FRIDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER
MN. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND THE TROF. AS BOTH SYSTEMS DEPART ON
SATURDAY...SOME CAA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY 18Z. BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS
AND PLENTY OF LIGHTNING EXPECTED. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. VFR IS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HYR WHERE
IFR CIGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 15Z...THEN VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE RAIN AND USHER IN A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  84  60  75  55 /  60  10  30  50
INL  76  58  74  55 /  60  10  40  50
BRD  83  62  79  58 /  60  10  40  50
HYR  85  61  79  57 /  60  10  30  60
ASX  83  60  75  53 /  60  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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