Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  10  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART


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