Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170507
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1207 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Updated for the new 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

We have a quiet weather day across the forecast area today.
Synoptically, there is generally west-northwest flow aloft with a
500mb trough axis to our east. At the surface, we have a weak
ridge over the area, with a trough axis/warm front extending into
the eastern Dakotas from northern Manitoba. While there is a
fairly significant baroclinic zone associated with this warm front
aloft, there does not seem to be much moisture with it and
satellite is showing few, if any clouds with it until northern
Manitoba. This warm front will shift slowly east across the
Northland tonight, with little cloud cover. With the ongoing warm
air advection, temperatures tonight will be warmer than last
night, and we should not only stay above freezing, but there
should not be any frost either. Tuesday the warmer start, in
combination with the continuing warm advection should help bring
high temperatures well into the 60s, if not approaching 70 in a
few places. Mixing will not be quite as deep, so winds won`t be
as strong as today, but the air should be almost as dry as today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Dry and mild through the work week then a chance for precipitation
returns over the weekend. Highs in the 60s through Saturday, cooler
Sunday. Friday will be the warmest days with some spots approaching
the low 70s.

On the synoptic scale the weather pattern over North America will
favor a jet stream that keeps the active weather over Canada this
week. A broad upper level longwave ridge builds across the Midwest
late this week with southerly winds at low levels leading to warm
air advection and above normal temperatures. Next chance for
precipitation arrives over the weekend as a longwave trough axis
ejects out of the Rockies into the Great Plains. Southerly flow
ahead of this low will bring increasing low level moisture ahead of
a cold front on Saturday resulting in surface dew points in the mid
50s. Along and ahead of the cold front showers and even a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop, with elevated instability in
the 500-1000 j/kg range Saturday afternoon per the past two ECMWF
runs - though the GEFS members and deterministic GFS/CMC are not as
aggressive on the instability.

With the lack of precipitation, mainly sunny skies, and dead or
dying vegetation, Wednesday and Thursday will be particularly dry
with relative humidity values falling below 30 percent in some
spots. On Wednesday a cold front will pass through the region
resulting in deep mixing behind the front. Southwest to west winds
will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph possible, which
may result in near-critical fire weather conditions. The greatest
risk for this occurring is in north-central Minnesota, including the
Chippewa National Forest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR through the forecast. LLWS is expected to affect HIB and INL
from 03Z to 06Z as a LLJ moves nearby.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  64  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
INL  36  66  48  62 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  39  67  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  40  67  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF



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