Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 191828
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
128 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure centered southeast of the Northland this morning will
move further off to the east today with a southerly surface flow
across much of the region.  An upper trough seen in water vapor
imagery over southern Manitoba will move southeast today then be
over Minnesota into northern Wisconsin on Friday.

We expect an increase in clouds for most areas today. Some light
showers are expected to develop in spots this afternoon into the
evening. The models vary in where they develop the showers and we
included some low pops in our southwest zones this afternoon into
the evening hours but will have to monitor for a possible expansion.
The coverage should be isolated. Highs will be from 69 to 74 for
most areas but a lake breeze is again expected to keep lake side
areas cooler.

The showers are expected to end tonight with lows in the forties.

The upper trough will be over the region on Friday and we could see
a few showers pop up. Instead of blanketing the area with small pops
we added some along the International Border where there was better
agreement among the ARW, NMM, ECMWF, and GFS. Highs will again be
from 69 to 75 and be cooler close to Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The sunny and rain-free conditions come to an end this weekend with
showers and thunderstorms possible early to mid week next week.
Temperatures may return to more seasonable levels next week as a
cold front or two moves through, but overall the large-scale
pattern supports mild temperatures.

On the synoptic scale an amplified mid-level longwave ridge moving
east across the northern plains into the upper Great Lakes region
will result in a warm and sunny weekend. As this ridge builds
eastward a longwave trough deepens across the western third of the
lower 48, which will result in strong south-southwesterly flow
across the upper midwest come late Sunday through at least the
middle of the week. With this kind of flow warm and moist air will
be advected into the Northland with a number of mid-level shortwave
troughs moving across the Great Plains into the upper midwest, thus
resulting in a number of chances for precipitation. Guidance is in
fairly good agreement about the first wave of precipitation arriving
late Sunday into Monday as a surface low lifts from the central to
northern Plains then moves northeastward towards northwest Ontario
bringing with it a cold front, but after that the spread in model
solutions increases greatly. However, the overall story remains the
same regardless of guidance: there are chances for showers/storms
Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures seasonable to mild.

At this point there do not appear to be any strong signals for
severe thunderstorms - the main threat Sunday night into Monday will
probably be heavy rain rates with embedded thunder. Beyond Monday
there will be enough instability to produce some small hail and
gusty winds, but again no strong signals for particularly robust
thunderstorms.

Temperatures above normal through the weekend in the mid to upper
70s Saturday and Sunday under sunny skies... really can`t ask for
better weather than that! Sunday southerly winds ramp up ahead of
the cold front/low with gusts approaching 30mph. Increasing clouds
late Sunday, but rainfall should hold off across north-central
Minnesota until after midnight, expanding eastward towards NW
Wisconsin by Sunday morning. A widespread quarter to half inch of
rainfall through Monday with embedded convection resulting in
locally higher amounts. (The 00Z GFS has a band of 2-3 inches
stretching from Brainerd/Walker to Voyageurs National Park in NW
Saint Louis county). Temperatures cool off Monday behind the cold
front with highs in the low to mid 70s -though this may be a bit too
optimistic as cooler temperatures could linger resulting in highs
only in the mid 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Cooler temperatures near Lake Superior through much of the
period, especially along the north shore.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

It will be quiet across the Northland TAF sites throughout the
period, with mainly scattered to broken mid level clouds. There
could be a few spotty sprinkles or showers but we are not
expecting any visibility or ceiling restrictions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  42  69  45 /  10  10  10   0
INL  73  44  74  46 /   0  10  20   0
BRD  72  47  72  48 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  71  39  71  44 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  70  42  69  45 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP



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