Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241559 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1059 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WIND AND SKY COVER. WHERE SKIES WERE
TRYING TO CLEAR ACROSS CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES HAVE QUICKLY
BEEN REPLACED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...MORE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND ONWARDS. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM12 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
LEANED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT PROMOTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT RECOVER TO
THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO SUNNY SKIES.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO NE ONTARIO TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE GUSTY WNW TO NW WINDS
ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOL FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO CAUSE BKN/OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SO THAT MOST TERMINALS APPROACH OR RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD SCATTER AND CLEAR
THIS EVENING...AND THAT INCLUDES KBRD AND KINL. ONCE THOSE
TERMINALS SEE CLEARING THIS EVENING...THEN THE INVERSION WILL SET
IN AND THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF. THE CLOUDIER AREAS OF
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE GUSTY WINDS WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AS WELL AS PROBABLY RETURN TO MVFR WITH THE LOWERING
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  47  64  47 /  30  20  10   0
INL  56  43  65  40 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  65  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  45  64  44 /  30  10   0   0
ASX  58  48  65  47 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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