Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 070531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS/THUNDER AS STORMS HAVE NOW EXITED
THE DLH CWA. HAVE INTRODUCED SCHC POPS TO THE BRD AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 500 AM AS LATEST HIGH RES HRRR/WRF/RUC/NAM12 ALL
SHOW ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE SW DLH ZONES OF CASS AND
CROW WING COUNTY AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
AND FAR NW WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN NW
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NE MINNESOTA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WERE 10 TO 15 MPH SW TO WSW WINDS IN
NW WISCONSIN...AND 10 TO 20 MPH W TO WNW IN NE MINNESOTA. THERE
WERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE IRON RANGE AND MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE PRIMARILY
THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST IN NW WISCONSIN
WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SUNSHINE OUT THERE. MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD
REACH AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR (0 TO 6
KM) BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MONDAY...IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY..PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
SREF...SUGGEST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
MIXED LAYER CAPE REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORE AMPLE CAPE AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST
FLOW SCENARIO DURING THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
WEST OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE MOST QPF AND LINGERS THE
PRECIPITATION WELL INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HIT THE
SOUTHERN CWA HARDEST FOR POPS AND QPF AND WILL SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE
ECMWF AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL QUIET PERIOD STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING AS FAR AS THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING A DRY
WEEKEND TO THE NORTHLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD RANGING FROM THE 70S TO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
SHRA OR POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE KBRD AREA AFTER 10Z. THE SHRA/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  70  54  72 /  60  40  10  10
INL  53  71  51  73 /  50  30  10  10
BRD  57  75  56  76 /  60  20  10  10
HYR  54  72  54  75 /  80  40  10  10
ASX  51  69  52  72 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...CLC






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