Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 241750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPDATED POPS/WX TO COINCIDE WITH CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
AND LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE MODEL RUNS. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIFTING NWD AND DISSIPATING THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT OVER S-CNTRL MN AND PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE HEAD
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE E/NE WINDS OFF THE LAKE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER
TO THE EAST IN NRN WI THAT COULD ADVECT WWD AND ASSIST IN THE
MIXING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER N-CNTRL MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD TONIGHT...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE FA ATTM. AS THIS PCPN MOVES NNE...WILL SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THESE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SFC LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT 07Z WITH A AN
ESE FLOW OVER THE INLAND FA. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NE FLOW
PERSISTS WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS. STRONG WAA
UNDERWAY AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER RANDOM PORTIONS OF THE FA.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW MN INTO NE ND SHOULD REMAIN S OF
THE FA. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR CENTRAL MN W OF
STC. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA AS
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING IN A NNE DIRECTION. KEPT A SHOWERS MENTION
FURTHER E WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 12Z. THE
MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CAPPED. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ATTM AS
MUCAPE IS AROUND 100 J/KG...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. ATTM...NOT
EXPECTING THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 18Z AND MAINLY IN NW
WI. BY THIS TIME MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 5000 J/KG FROM
PINE COUNTY EWD TO WASHBURN COUNTY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PWATS
APPROACH 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 00Z MONDAY...SO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LARGER STORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
QUICK AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING A FLASH FLOOD ISSUE ATTM. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN ZONES. SEE THE LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR FINER DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH PWATS
OVER 1.75 INCHES. AFTER 06Z...STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TWIN
PORTS S ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND E THROUGH NW WI...AND THEN FROM
THE ARROWHEAD TO NORTH CENTRAL WI AFTER 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MARCHES ALONG. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA AS
THE SFC LOW CENTER HEADS N INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FA AS THE SFC
LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING AND COLUMN RH IS
LESS THAN 60 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONCENTRATED ALONG IT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND EXTENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.   THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE BULK WILL REMAIN SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL POSSIBLY BE
BRUSHED BY SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEE WILL BE ANOTHER
BREAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASINGLY MVFR AND EVEN SOME VFR CONDITIONS AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO REAL
BREAKS AS OF 1245 PM...STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN TO THE
TWIN PORTS AND DOWN TO JUST EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA TO SEE CLOUDS IMPROVE TO A GREAT EXTENT.
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WERE ALSO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOIST AND
CLOUDY NEAR KDLH. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY IN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  61  72  53 /  60  80  10  10
INL  77  59  65  47 /  80  20  10  10
BRD  83  58  70  52 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  84  64  78  55 /  20  60  10  10
ASX  85  66  77  56 /  20  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...DAP







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.