Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190822
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The Northland will remain under the influence of a large,
vertically-stacked area of low pressure over eastern Canada. This
low, which is over northeast Ontario as of early this morning,
will lift into western Quebec this afternoon. The Northland will
remain in relatively cool northwest flow. Today`s flow will be a
bit drier than yesterday, so expect a bit more sunshine today than
yesterday. It will be a bit breezy with afternoon gusts around 15
to 20 mph. Scattered light showers, and a few rumbles of thunder,
are forecast for the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin
this afternoon. Highs will range from the low 60s near the
Canadian border into the inland Arrowhead, to the middle and upper
60s across the rest of the forecast area.

A shortwave will drop into southern Saskatchewan and southern
Manitoba this evening into Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight. It
will generally skirt the eastern and southern forecast area,
bringing a period of showers. While most of the models do not have
much in the way of overnight instability, kept a low chance of
thunder because of the lift that will generated by the shortwave.
It will probably be enough to develop some rumbles of thunder. The
overnight cloud cover will help prop up temperatures. Lows should
be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

High pressure will build into the Northland Tuesday. While the
northwest flow will continue, it will be lighter and much drier.
The more plentiful sunshine will make for a warmer day. Highs
should be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High pressure will bring dry weather to the Northland on Tuesday
night, as we remain in northwest flow aloft. The upper level
pattern will flatten by Wednesday, as a cold front and shortwave
move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers, and a
few thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
front on Wednesday, and then gradually move out on Wednesday
night. There may be some lingering showers through the remainder
of the work week, as the focus shifts to an upper level low that
will settle into the region through the end of the work week. The
result will be some scattered showers, mainly diurnal, with the
best chance being in the northern portion of the CWA. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be over the weekend, as a
shortwave trough carves itself out across the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes. There are some pretty dramatic differences
between the ECMWF and GFS, but in terms of sensible weather, both
models indicate a fairly decent chance of precipitation for the
weekend. The other main difference is that the ECMWF brings much
cooler weather for the end of the weekend and early in the next
work week. Temperatures will generally be at or below normal for
the entire long term period, with highs ranging from the 60s to
lower 70s on most days. Sunday will likely be the coolest day,
with highs in the 60s. Lows should range from the 40s to the lower
50s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A cutoff low will continue rotating around Ontario. Due to the
loss of daytime heating showers and storms have dissipated.
However, the combination of recent precipitation and light winds
will result in patchy fog formation. Think that MVFR visibilities
are possible at all sites except for INL/BRD overnight.

On Monday a potent shortwave trough will rotate around the
western side of the cutoff, in central Canada, on Monday afternoon
and into northern Minnesota by 06Z. The combination of the
approaching wave and diurnal heating will result in scattered
shower and isolated thunderstorm development late in the morning
and into the afternoon. If any heavier showers/storms move over a
terminal MVFR/IFR conditions are possible. Due to the scattered
nature of the shower/storm activity have held off in including
thunderstorms and MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  49  69  49 /  20  30  10   0
INL  62  46  68  45 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  69  51  71  51 /  10  40   0  10
HYR  67  49  69  47 /  30  30  20   0
ASX  68  50  69  47 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WL



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