Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 131753 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

INCREASED WINDS AND WINDS GUSTS FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE NAM12
AND RAP13 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...POSSIBLY STRAY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
SW FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE DOUBTFUL FOR MOST OF THE ARROWHEAD
THIS MORNING AND WE WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE WARNING FOR THAT AREA AS
THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL HELP SEND THOSE CLOUDS EAST
THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH...AND SOME
CU TO FORM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER FIFTIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING...AND
PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT. WE DELAYED THE STARTING TIME BY A FEW HOURS
WHICH MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. THE UPPER TROUGH  WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS REMAINING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THEY WILL
DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A BUILDING HIGH AT THE SFC FROM THE WEST
WILL DEFINE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH
N-CNTRL WI SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SFC FRONT COULD DROP IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTH ON WED...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN VERY LOW. THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM RETURN SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AND USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES MON AND TUE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...BUT QUICKLY COOL
AROUND THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED AS EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
DEVELOP. HIGHS AROUND DULUTH ON WED WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
50S. A SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED THUR AND FRI AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND SW...AND HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

BKN/OVC CU NEAR 050 THIS AFTN AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AT KINL/KHIB AS ANTICYCLONIC BDRY
LYR FLOW SHIFTS EAST AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES.FRONTAL BDRY
PASSES ACROSS WRN ZONES BY 12Z AND INTO ERN CWA BY 18Z. HIGHEST
PROB OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR KINL WHERE PROXIMITY TO SFC
LOW AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS LIKELY. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED LLWS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS INCREASING SFC PRESS
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED MIXING MAY LIMIT OCCURRENCE.






&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  43  61  43 /   0  30  50  10
INL  58  41  56  39 /   0  60  60  20
BRD  58  44  60  39 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  57  42  62  39 /   0  20  30  10
ASX  60  43  62  44 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...CANNON






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