Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

PERSISTENCE IS THE FORECAST RULE FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
STRONG STACKED LOW WAS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...BUT ITS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE...THE ARROWHEAD ON NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AS WELL AS THE
INTERSTATE 35 AREA THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT. IT
WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY. NSHARP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 25 KTS THAT COULD MIX DOWN. BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT BE EARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

SKIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS YET AS THE MILD SUMMER GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO FALL...BUT NOT TO WORRY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUMMER IS NOT OVER JUST YET!

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PERSIST...OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND GRADUALLY TAKING A
CLOCKWISE LOOP THROUGH THE WEEK...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION
MID-WEEK THEN TO THE NEVADA/MEXICO BORDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TAKES ITS TIME MIGRATING
EASTWARD...BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AND A CLEAR NIGHT. A WEEK MID-LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID WEEK /THE REASON FOR THE UPPER RIDGE
WOBBLE/ MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A
MILD AND HUMID WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...RISING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT
AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE STICKY. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE BEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NO GREAT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBRD UNTIL LATE IN
THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE CUT OFF LOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARDS INTO FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC BY 00Z ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KBRD IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...SO CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. ALL OTHER
TERMINALS CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z TO 21Z EXCEPT FOR KINL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  65  45  72 /  20  20   0   0
INL  43  66  40  74 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  45  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  45  65  43  72 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  48  66  47  70 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL


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