Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 051157 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Update for new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

At 345 AM, snow continued across much of northwest Wisconsin, as
well as in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Meanwhile, scattered snow
showers and flurries were found across the rest of northeast
Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures ranged from
the teens in the north to the 20s south. Low pressure was located
over northern Lake Superior as of this morning.

The focus for today through Wednesday will be snow accumulation,
as well as temperatures and winds. Low pressure will continue to
exit the region to the north and east today, leaving snow
showers/flurries as well as windy conditions with snow showers.
One major change was to add the Arrowhead region to the winter
weather advisory, as it looks like the potential will exist for 2
to 5 inches in the tip of the Arrowhead as well. Snow will
gradually decrease from southwest to northeast today, with most
areas seeing only some scattered flurries or snow showers. Skies
should generally remain cloudy today, although a few breaks will
likely develop during the day.

Blowing snow will also be a problem today, as winds gust into the
30 to 40 mph range.

Scattered snow showers or flurries will be possible tonight and
Wednesday as well. The exception will be the south shore of Lake
Superior over the Gogebic range. Snow should reach 2 to 5 inches
in northern Iron County, mainly in the Gogebic range area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Cold temperatures, snow showers, and lake effect snow are the
main concerns during the long term this morning.

Cold cyclonic flow aloft will continue Wednesday night and
Thursday. Lake effect snow showers are forecast to continue with
an additional inch of accumulation possible in Iron County and
lower totals elsewhere. A shortwave trough and associated bolus
of vorticity is forecast to dive south out of central Canada
Thursday night and Friday. The falling heights surge of moisture
will create scattered snow showers across most of the Northland.
Accumulation should be light, an inch at most.  Lake effect snow
showers ramp up once again Thursday night and Friday with two to
four inches of accumulation possible in the northwest Wisconsin
snowbelt areas, with the highest totals along the Gogebic Range
in Iron County. Temperatures will remain colder than average for
the remainder of the week with highs in the teens and overnight
lows from the single digits below zero to around 10 degrees above
zero.

A ridge over the western half of the continent will push farther
eastward Saturday through the weekend. A weak ridge of surface
high pressure will drift through the Plains and the Upper Midwest
Saturday and Saturday night. Low-level winds will turn southerly
and then westerly for the second half of the weekend, ushering in
slightly warmer temperatures. Look for temperatures near normal
Sunday into Monday. Another shortwave trough will move through the
region Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of snow
showers to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Strong winds and light snow showers will continue today as storm
system pulls farther away from the Northland. MVFR ceilings are
expected at most sites today. A narrow wedge of VFR has found its
way to BRD in the past few hours. Think another round of MVFR
ceilings with snow showers will move through that area starting at
around 14Z. Wind speeds will diminish slightly tonight and snow
showers should come to an end as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   8  19   2 /  30  20  20  10
INL  14   7  16  -4 /  60  40  30   0
BRD  18   9  19   2 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  22   9  19   4 /  30  30  30  10
ASX  25  13  23   9 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday for WIZ004.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ002.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ012-021.

LS...Storm Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ146-147.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening
     for LSZ146-147.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-140>145-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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