Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
349 FXUS63 KDLH 242303 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 603 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue today and Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions in portions of the Northland. - Two low pressure systems back-to-back will bring rain showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Today and Thursday: Lingering dry air over the Northland today throughout portions of our CWA will continue Thursday. Soundings show the classic inverted V sounding and very dry air aloft in northwestern Wisconsin. As a result, more elevated fire weather conditions are possible with high temperatures in the 60s, low RHs, and increasing winds throughout the day as the pressure gradient tightens from the approaching low pressure system. Low 1 - Friday morning to Saturday night: A strong vertically stacked low will move into the Upper Midwest Friday morning. Winds will increase further ahead of the low pressure center into Friday night. Southeast winds will be 15-20 mph across the area with gusts to around 40 mph. Wind advisories are not out of the question where the highest winds are expected, but confidence remains low to initiate any action at this point. Winds will briefly lower as the low passes before increasing once again on the back side. Models are fairly in agreement with the placement of the low moving over southern Minnesota and moving northeast over the Northland before exiting northeast into Canada. The speed is still in question and where the models still start to diverge, but will likely exit Saturday night. Thunderstorms are possible within these showers, especially on Saturday when higher instability and moisture will be present in northwestern Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected, as better conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms remains to our south and east. Low 2 - Sunday afternoon through Monday: A brief break in precipitation late Saturday night and Sunday morning will be followed by a second low ahead of a deep upper level trough. Little instability suggests that thunder, if any, will be few and far between with this second system. The track of this is more uncertain, but should still take a similar path to the first with our area remaining north of the system. Global models also differ on the speed of the system, which could affect rainfall totals. Rainfall totals: Depending on the track of the two lows, precipitation totals have spread more evenly across our southern areas this forecast package. All of our area should see at least a half inch of precipitation, with areas along the North Shore, south of the Iron Range and east of the Brainerd Lakes possibly seeing 1.5 inches or more (40-60%) by next week. Next week: After these lows pass, global models hint at additional weak shortwaves over the region, bringing more light precipitation. Models really start to diverge at this point, though, so there is no concrete timing or placement able to be obtained this far out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail under light southeasterly winds tonight becoming a bit gustier after 16Z Thursday to 20 knots, strongest in north-central Minnesota. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Light winds tonight and Thursday morning will increase out of the east Thursday afternoon as the first of two low pressure systems approach the Northland bringing moderate rainfall. The majority of the near shore waters will likely see wind gusts and/or waves hazardous to small craft Friday afternoon. Winds will fluctuate throughout the weekend as the two systems pass, but hazardous conditions will remain possible on and off until Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...NLy MARINE...KML