Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NE MN AND HEADED FOR NW WI AT 01Z.
STILL SOME INSTABILITY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHICH IS COMBINING WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEY ARE MUCH WEAKER THEN EARLIER
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS ACROSS PINE COUNTY AND INTO WASHBURN COUNTY. DIURNAL
STORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP NORTH OF THE BORDER IN CANADA AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE THE ARROWHEAD. EXPECT THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AIRMASS STORMS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. STILL HAVE SOME GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPES 1500 TO 2000 G/KG...BUT SHEAR
HAS BEEN DECREASING AS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL. AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND WE CAN EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE VERY LOW.

TUESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS MODERATES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST RETREATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWING A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON A RISING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

WED/THURS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
RESULT IN QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH SEASONABLE TO MILD TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT.

THURS/FRI...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAK SFC LOW/TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND IT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. BEST TIMING LOOKS TO
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPS WARMER AS SOUTHERLY
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ADVECT IN WARMER AIR...HIGHS MID TO UPPER 70S.

SAT...WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WARMER IN THE
UPPER 70S.

SUN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL SASK/MANITOBA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH THE LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS TIME RANGE WITH
THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS....SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN PRECIP
CHANCES. BETTER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT DLH AND HYR WITH SOME BR AND MVFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
AND LINGERING UNTIL 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  66  49  73 /  40  10   0   0
INL  50  73  47  78 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  57  77  52  75 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  55  71  43  74 /  50  10   0   0
ASX  53  64  44  71 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF


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