Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261745 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WE EXTENDED THE
CHANCE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING A BIT NORTH BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND IF AND
WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE SCOOTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF SIREN AS OF
08Z. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS WELL BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY THIS MORNING IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY ON NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TODAY WHICH
WOULD DISCOURAGE NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY
HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE. IT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME FOG IN
SPOTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT THINK THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE MAY SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HOT...HUMID...AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AT LOW LEVELS...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PREVENT MUCH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT
/INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KTS/ WILL SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMO...BUT 20-
30KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD RISK. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER...APPROACHING 90 ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER DOWN AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100.

WED/THURS/FRI...COOLER AND DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 80S THURS/FRI.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.

SAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT MODEL VARIABILITY TOO
LARGE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES RESOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING AT ALL
SITES. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WMFNT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR INL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE IN NORTHEAST MN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM DLH.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT ALLOWING AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD IFR
VSBYS AT HIB/BRD/HYR WITH MVFR AT DLH/INL. VSBYS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT MOST FAVORABLE AFTER 27.18Z SO WILL
LEAVE THOSE ADDITIONS FOR THE EVENING SHIFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  85  66  85  68 /  10  10  20  40
INL  86  64  87  68 /  20  10  10  40
BRD  86  65  86  69 /  20  10  20  70
HYR  85  63  85  68 /  10  10  20  40
ASX  87  63  87  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK


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