Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240906 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
406 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SFC LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AT 07Z WITH A AN
ESE FLOW OVER THE INLAND FA. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...THE NE FLOW
PERSISTS WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS. STRONG WAA
UNDERWAY AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER RANDOM PORTIONS OF THE FA.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW MN INTO NE ND SHOULD REMAIN S OF
THE FA. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR CENTRAL MN W OF
STC. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA AS
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING IN A NNE DIRECTION. KEPT A SHOWERS MENTION
FURTHER E WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG NEXT TO LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 12Z. THE
MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CAPPED. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ATTM AS
MUCAPE IS AROUND 100 J/KG...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. ATTM...NOT
EXPECTING THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 18Z AND MAINLY IN NW
WI. BY THIS TIME MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 5000 J/KG FROM
PINE COUNTY EWD TO WASHBURN COUNTY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PWATS
APPROACH 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 00Z MONDAY...SO HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LARGER STORMS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
QUICK AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING A FLASH FLOOD ISSUE ATTM. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN ZONES. SEE THE LATEST DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR FINER DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE
SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH PWATS
OVER 1.75 INCHES. AFTER 06Z...STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TWIN
PORTS S ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND E THROUGH NW WI...AND THEN FROM
THE ARROWHEAD TO NORTH CENTRAL WI AFTER 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT
MARCHES ALONG. BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA AS
THE SFC LOW CENTER HEADS N INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FA AS THE SFC
LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING AND COLUMN RH IS
LESS THAN 60 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER WITH PRECIPITATION
CONCENTRATED ALONG IT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND EXTENDING INTO
WEDNESDAY.   THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE BULK WILL REMAIN SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE A
BREAK ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL POSSIBLY BE
BRUSHED BY SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEE WILL BE ANOTHER
BREAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS AN ELY FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FEEDS IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER DLH/HIB AND POSSIBLY HYR.
HOWEVER...LOW END VFR CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE W AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS MAY PREVENT THE BR FROM
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. MAINTAINED THE PRIOR FORECAST OF VCSH FROM
15Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 18Z AS STORM COMPLEX ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY DIVERGE FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
END THE PCPN AFTER 00Z BUT ADDED -DZ/BR AT MOST LOCATIONS AS ELY
FLOW RETURNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  61  72  53 /  20  90  10  10
INL  79  59  65  47 /  60  30  10  10
BRD  85  58  70  52 /  50  70  10  10
HYR  84  64  78  55 /  10  70  10  10
ASX  84  66  77  56 /  10  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








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