Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 271942
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERALL COVERAGE ALONG WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN MN AT THIS TIME. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS MOVING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AT THIS TIME.  PRESENTLY...THE CELLS ARE MOVING NORTH AROUND
18KTS.  RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING...AND WOULD WORK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.  MAY SEE ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE UNTIL 02Z.  WE SHOULD
SEE ACTIVITY WANE THEN AFTER PEAK HEATING...WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS
LEFT OVER INTO THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG
THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMP WILL BE
ALLOWED TO DROP OFF AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE SLIGHT.  WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE EAST
FOR NOW.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA AROUND 00Z MON.  WILL FOLLOW THAT CONSENSUS FOR NOW. FOR THE
MOMENT WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING MAINLY
AFTER 00Z MON.  SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT DIP FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO/MINNESOTA TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
ASSOCIATED FORCING AND LAYER MOISTURE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST
SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH WI...WHERE 20
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE 60S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LOW
TO MID 70S LOOKING ACHIEVABLE TO THE SOUTH.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW EJECTS FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW CIRCA 990MB PROGGED BY 27.12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. DECENT
ASSOCIATED 700-600MB FORCING ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...REINFORCING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
PIGGY-BACK ON THE DEPARTING WAVES...AND RESULT IN PROLONGMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY...BUT COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WILL CONTINUE VFR TREND WITH ONLY ISOLATED THREAT OF -TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WC WI. SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING MAINLY 20Z-01Z.
PROBABILITIES LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. SOME 5-7K FT CLOUDS
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS INTO THE NIGHT AS UPPER
CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. WILL PLAY SOME CUMULUS INTO
SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. FOG THREAT LIMITED AGAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR FOG IN WC WI OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
MN.

KMSP...STILL CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE BOTH LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE TAF DRY. WILL CONTINUE VFR TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS S 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.