Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171126
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
626 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes today. Warmer air will
spread across the area this morning. A weak cold front will push
across the area this afternoon. An upper air disturbance will slide
across the lower Great Lakes tonight. High pressure will build in
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The overnight showers were moving northeast and will exit the
forecast area early this morning. Showers are filling in ahead of
the weak cold/occluded front and will spread across the forecast
area this morning. Added fog for a few hours this morning across
northwest Ohio from Toledo to near Sandusky where the cold
boundary layer is saturated. The fog will improve as the front
approaches and mixing improves. Made minor adjustments to the
hourly temperatures this morning based on the current trends. No
other changes for the early morning update.

Original "Today" discussion...
Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes today. Warm advection
rain will give way to the psuedo dry slot this morning. The
increasing low level jet and elevated CAPE may be just enough to pop
a few thundershowers on the back side of the warm advection rain
this morning or ahead of the weak cold front as it pushes east. The
cold front should cross northwest Ohio mid morning and northeast
Ohio and northwest PA early this afternoon. There may be a brief
window where some of the wind aloft can mix down just ahead of or
just behind the frontal passage but the odds favor winds staying
below wind advisory criteria.

Temperatures will continue to rise. Do not want to be under the max
temperature guidance in this type of pattern. The warm air is
already in the Ohio Valley and it will spread north across the
entire forecast area today, perhaps struggling a bit around Toledo
and northwest PA. Spring like forecast highs generally in the mid
and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong short wave is progged to slide across the lower Great Lakes
tonight. The atmosphere will have dried out but will need to mention
at least a chance of precip north of the track which includes most
of the forecast area. The best chance would be in the hills of
northeast OH and northwest PA, especially in the snowbelt where the
precip may be enhanced. 850 mb temperatures are progged to barely
get below 0C. Thickness values suggest rain showers but given the
time of year and enough upward motion, some of the higher terrain of
northwest PA may see some wet flakes or a few sleet pellets mix in
before daybreak.

Precip should move east early on Wednesday. It will be difficult to
get clearing with weak cold advection, cyclonic circulation, and the
ridge axis to the west. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Temperatures may just sneak below freezing Wednesday night.

High clouds will increase on Thursday but we have a chance of seeing
some sunshine. Temperatures will rebound and continue well above
normal with highs in the 40s.

The models are in relative agreement with a moist south flow and a
piece of energy rotating around an upper low in the plains states.
Rain showers may arrive Thursday night and will likely push north
across the area on Friday. Forecast highs near guidance, generally
from the lower 50s to the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad eastern CONUS ridge/return flow regime during the extended
period will keep the region warm and wet. A few showers are possible
Saturday in the wake of a departing low, however will only mention
slight chance in forecast during the morning hours, with dry
conditions through Saturday night. Attention turns to a large
mid/upper low that will deepen from the southern Plains Sunday
through the Ohio valley/Great Lakes Monday night/Tuesday. This will
increase pops across the area Sunday, with likely pops Sunday
night/Monday, returning to chance pops Monday night/Tuesday. Brief
ridging will work into the region behind the low on Tuesday, with a
brief dry period late Tuesday/Tuesday night before another potential
system that could bring rain to the area mid/late next week.

Above normal temperatures expected throughout the long term period,
with highs Saturday through Monday in the upper 40s to mid 50s and
lows in the mid 30s/low 40s. Slight cooler temperatures, but still
well above normal, expected Tuesday with highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Warm sector that has spread into northern Ohio has made ceiling
forecast very challenging. At this point the IFR conditions will
mainly be with the convection that will move west to east across
the region through 12z. Did not mention any thunder in the TAF`s
but it may occur. In the wake of the convection ceilings will
attempt to lift to low end vfr but visibilities may remain under 5
miles. Cold front will cross the area with another round of
showers late morning into early afternoon. Again a few rumbles of
thunder may be possible. As winds shift to the west in the wake
of the front they will become gusty. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will
be possible.

We will need to monitor some 40+ knot winds at 2000 feet around
12z. Later shifts will need to monitor this and determine if we
will need some low level wind shear in the TAF`s.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night into early WEdnesday then again on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
East/southeast flow over Lake Erie this morning will veer southwest
by this afternoon 10 to 20 knots as a low pressure system lifts
northeast across the central Lakes. Winds will slowly diminish
Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the lakes, but
will remain southwest 5 to 15 knots through Thursday morning, before
backing easterly through Friday ahead of another low pressure
system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Greenawalt



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