Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO FROM THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVING UP THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CLIPPER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA/ADVISORY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH
SHOULD BE LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. TYPICALLY THE
SNOW IS RATHER LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THESE
SITUATIONS BUT I HAVE SEEN SOME SURPRISE AMOUNTS. I SUSPECT THAT
TYPE OF SITUATION WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
IN PA AND WV. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IN STARK AND MAHONING
COUNTY THROUGH 10 AM ALTHOUGH SNOW RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SUN
SHOULD COME OUT AT TOLEDO ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AGAIN. FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS... GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS AGAIN A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
MIXED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 30S...BUT FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. MOISTURE CONTENT
LOOKS AROUND 0.25" SO IF ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES...HOWEVER WITH A PERIOD OF -RA ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE CLOSER
TO AN INCH. THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS A TROUGH LINGERS
BACK OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AS THE LOW PASSES BY
AND REMAIN STRONGER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW TRACK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ALONG SOUTHERN OHIO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH. A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN BETWEEN. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE WINDS OVER 25KT FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ017-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...JAMISON





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