Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE EVEN PLACED AN ISOLATED THUNDER
CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE REGION TODAY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GO MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SHOULD EXIT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER LIFT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL
RAMP UP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS GETTING AT LEAST
ONE ROUND OF RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS A
DIFFICULT CALL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE HEATING SOME AS THE
MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER THERE IS
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL MENTION SEVERE
IN THE HWO BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY
WILL BE THE COOL DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 60S...MAYBE ONLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NW
PA. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW STAYING OVER THE
GULF COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER OHIO. WILL CARRY ONLY
MINIMAL POPS FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS TURNING SE THEN SOUTH
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. ANY PATCHY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES
MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE PLACES ON TIMING AT SPECIFIC
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE LATER ON SAT. WINDS TURN
NORTH SAT EVE THEN NE LATER SAT NIGHT AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
INTO TUE WHILE REMAINING EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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