Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221957
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
257 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak low pressure systems will track northeast through
the region Friday through Sunday. These systems will swing a frontal
boundary north and south across the region through the weekend. The
strongest low tracking through the Great Lakes on Sunday will push a
cold front east through the area, with high pressure building east
across the region through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An active pattern will continue through Friday night as another wave
of low pressure tracks northeast along a frontal boundary just south
of the forecast area. Main changes to the forecast are temperatures
and timing of pops. Temperatures today have been much warmer than
previously forecasted, and MOS guidance suggests that any diurnal
cooling through the evening will cease as warm air advection takes
hold across the region and temperatures become steady and slowly
rise through daybreak tomorrow. Low temps may be reached early in
the overnight, likely before 06Z. Temps should remain above freezing
across the area after 06Z, so the onset of any precip should be
rain, and the threat of previously forecasted freezing rain across
NW OH is limited to non-existent at this point.

Have delayed the onset of precip a couple of hours during the Friday
morning period, as majority of guidance has trended this way. Pops
should max out mid morning to mid day across the area, with a period
of cat pops for the entire area. The rain should move east out of
the area by 00Z, with mainly dry conditions across the area
overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The bulk of the
guidances is putting the heaviest swath of rainfall just south of
the forecast area, with the heaviest amounts in our forecast area
expected from roughly Marion to Youngstown, where amounts around
0.75" to 1" are possible. Have held off on a flood watch at this
point, with the greater threat later in the weekend. Currently
thinking this round of rainfall Friday night will only prolong
existing river flooding across the southern part of the forecast
area, with the bigger flood threat in the Saturday/Saturday night
time frame. Have raised highs a degree or two across the area, with
low to mid 50s across most of the area, with upper 50s to around 60
across the far southern fringe of the area.

Another low will track northeast into the area late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Have slowed down pops with this period
as well, with likely pops holding off until closer to 12Z. Lows will
be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The short term begins Saturday with an upper trough just east
of the Rockies into the four corners and a negatively tilted
upper ridge across the upper Midwest. At the surface, high
pressure will be over the Great Lakes. Low pressure will be in
the southern Plains with low level flow out of the GLFMX into
the lower Ohio valley. This will be a very wet pattern for the
Ohio Valley in general and will need to monitor the expected
swath of heaviest rainfall Saturday into Sunday for potential
flood headlines. For now however will bring categorical pops
into the area from the ssw on Saturday continuing Saturday night
as the southern plains low moves to the western Great Lakes
dragging a warm front into the area followed by a cold front
late Saturday night and early Sunday. Drying moves in quickly
Sunday from the west as the storm system continues northeast
across the lakes into Ontario and high pressure builds in from
the south. Expect non-diurnal temp trends Saturday night into
Sunday morning with warm advection ahead of the system. Expect
falling temps Sunday...mainly west, as the cold front passes
although increasing sun will mute the fall during mid afternoon.
Highs saturday mid 40s to lower 50s, Monday 50s to near 60, and
Monday 45 to 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models are holding firm for the Monday night through Tuesday
night period.  High pressure will linger over the region during that
time keeping skies no more than partly cloudy most of the time.
Yesterday it looked like we could see increasing precip chances on
Wednesday.  That is still the case although the progression of the
mean features is a little slower than yesterday.  Will go with small
chance pops during the day with higher pops Wednesday night through
Thursday.  The models are similar tracking a low across the lakes on
Thursday and Thursday night.  Some timing and track differences
persist but am confident enough in the practical weather to trend
pops up for the end of the period.   Temperatures will remain above
normal and most if not all of the precip during the period will be
in the form of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Much of the wintry mixed precipitation moved east out of the
region early this afternoon...except from generally KCLE
eastward where a few small pockets of rain/snow remain. Either
way...the entire region should be dry by around 20z.
Otherwise...MVFR and IFR conditions expected today before IFR to
even possible LIFR cigs late tonight into tomorrow morning with
the next batch of precipitation.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely to dominate most of the time through
Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
No gales expected through Tuesday however Sunday winds will approach
30 knots from the southwest. For tonight expect northeast flow 10 to
15 knots turning southeast towards morning as high pressure over the
lakes moves east. Friday low pressure moves into the western lakes
turning southerly flow southwest around 15 knots. Friday night into
Saturday light flow will turn east Saturday as another high moves
across the lakes. Sunday deep low pressure crosses the western lakes
on its way to Ontario. Lake Erie winds will increase  to 20 to 25
knots late Saturday night from the south and then turn southwest
Sunday 25 to 30 knots.  Southwest winds diminish to  10 to 15 knots
by Monday morning as high pressure builds onto the lake from the
south. Light southwest flow will continue through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Riley
MARINE...TK



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