Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DEEPEN AND SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING SYNOPTIC AND MESO WEATHER PATTERN. THE SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE WIND
EVENTUALLY FLIPPING TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL CREATE AN OCCLUDED TYPE THERMAL PATTERN AS SOMEWHAT WARMER
AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA JUST BRUSHING
WESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD BE THE FASTEST WAY TO
GET THE AIR COLD ENOUGH...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION/UPWARD MOTION
COOLING THE COLUMN AND BRINGING DOWN THE COLDER AIR. NOT SURE THIS
CAN HAPPEN VERY FAR EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW SO INITIALLY WE
WILL WATCH FOR A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AND POINTS WEST. TRICK OR TREATIES IN BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY MAY SEE SOME FLAKES....MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH IN
TOLEDO TO STAY RAIN BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. OBVIOUSLY NOT MUCH
ELEVATION TO HELP WITH THE CHANGE OVER UNTIL YOU GET DOWN TO
ABOUT CRAWFORD MARION AND ESPECIALLY MORROW COUNTIES AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE COLDER AIR THERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AN
INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS. THE ACCUMULATION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO GRASSY SURFACES... AUTOMOBILES... DECKS ETC SINCE I DOUBT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD GET BELOW FREEZING ALTHOUGH THE WET BULB
WILL GET CLOSE.

THE DEEPER COLDER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING SO NOT
MUCH CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NE OH/NW PA UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND THEN PROBABLY IN THE HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S
NW OHIO TO THE LOWER/MID 40S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ON SATURDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO ROTATE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT PRECIP WILL
INCREASE. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL COME DOWN AS SNOW WHILE THE
SPRINKLES MAY STAY LIQUID. THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL BACK TO
NORTH...A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM CLEVELAND TO
MANSFIELD...AND EXPECT THE STEADIER PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE SHOWERY AND THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT
ACROSS FAR NW OHIO. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH ACCUMULATION SINCE
THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT IS HARD TO STICK DURING THE DAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR BUT A SLUSHY INCH OR SO COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY
SURFACES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S WHERE THE PRECIP IS MORE FREQUENT.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT WANT TO END THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP
THREAT TO QUICKLY AS WE OFTEN DO BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD TAPER
OFF. IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO GET THE CLOUDS TO SHIFT
EAST BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. SOME SECTIONS
OF INLAND NW PA MAY HOLD IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY. BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW COMES AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT ALSO EXPECTING
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN
IMPULSE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME LAKE
EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NE
OHIO AND NW PA.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO.

MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHOWERS MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS THE MORE STEADIER RAINS ARRIVES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLY. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH TAF SITES SUCH
AS KCLE...KCAK...KMFD AND KYNG AFTER SUNSET.

CHANCES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. I`M
HOLDING THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NW OHIO
OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY THEN PERSISTING OVER
NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE ERIE BASIN WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY. WITH STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOK FOR OUR GALE WARNING TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SOME
SIGNIFICANT WAVES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE POSTED
FOR TONIGHT AND RUN ALL DAY SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN ACTIVE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC






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