Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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941
FXUS61 KCLE 252346
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Mechanism for significant forcing lacking so still see only sct
coverage tonight as weak s/w works ne into the cwa late tonight.
Marginally unstable enough for some thunder but much of the
convection will probably just be shra. A few locations could see a
quarter of an inch of rainfall but most of the cwa will see a tenth
of an inch or less.

Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints
continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft will cross the
area later tonight and Thursday morning and could kick off a
shower or local thunderstorm. Not very confident of the coverage
and given the time of day will not mention thunder except at KTOL
and KFDY (vicinity) where the low level jet and low level
convergence is somewhat stronger. Some of the guidance is for MVFR
ceilings Thursday morning. Given the weakness of the system and
questions about the coverage of showers the TAF forecasts are
mostly for VFR although there certainly could be MVFR ceilings for
an hour or two Thursday morning before the cumulus lifts to VFR by
Thursday afternoon. MVFR conditions also possible in any showers.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Lombardy



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