Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170726
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive area of high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley
through Friday before shifting to the New England coast. An upper
level ridge strengthens aloft Thursday into Friday bringing
another stretch of warm and dry conditions to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures generally in the mid 30s and may fall another degree or
two prior to sunrise so will leave the Frost Advisory in effect
through 10 AM. Otherwise high pressure over the Ohio Valley will
remain the dominant weather feature with a very dry airmass in
place. Southwesterly winds will be on the increase today as low
pressure passes north of the Great Lakes and the gradient tightens
across northern portions of the area. Wind gusts to around 20 mph
will be common this afternoon along with strengthening warm
advection. The temperature at 925mb will warm 4-6C over the next 12
hours with highs forecast in the 60s. Lows tonight will be cool but
not expecting any more than patchy frost in a few of the coolest
locations with lows ranging from the upper 30s towards central Ohio
to near 50 along the lakeshore. Wednesday will feature more of the
same with sunny skies, a dry airmass, and temperatures trending
another 2-4 degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The models still show an upper trough with little moisture crossing
the area Wed night then a weak cold front with a narrow band of
limited moisture around 850 mb moving southeast across the CWA late
Thu and Thu night. Neither of these features seems capable of
producing rain but will show a better band of clouds with the front
late Thu and Thu night. Temps will show little daily change.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will dominate Fri and Sat to provide dry conditions
and warming temps. The models differ Sun and Mon with the GFS
showing a stronger and more progressive cold front reaching the
area early Sun night. Will use an averaging type approach to the
models and start to ramp up pops late Sun into Sun night with a
continued chc on Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will maintain VFR conditions
through the TAF cycle. Light south to southwest winds will
increase and gust to around 20 knots in the 15-22Z window on
Tuesday. Winds will lose the gustiness heading into Tuesday
evening and be out of the southwest around 5-10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations possible
early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
The typical cooler season setup with SCA conditions on the lake
appears likely today into tonight then the SW winds should diminish
some for Wed as high pressure spreads back NW toward the lake. Winds
should increase again for Wed night and Thu with marginal SCA
conditions possible again as a weakening cold front approaches the
lake.

Winds then settle down again Thu night into Fri as the high again
builds back toward the lake while backing to the south.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013-014-
     020>023-029>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Adams



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