Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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482
FXUS61 KCLE 251135
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
735 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will slowly push south across the area
today. The cold front will become nearly stationary south of the
local area tonight and then begin to lift northeast as a warm
front Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly from St. Louis
toward the northeast to Lake Huron by Monday morning and to near
Maine by Tuesday. A trailing cold front will move southeast
across the area by Tuesday morning. A high pressure ridge will
build southeast across the Great Lakes region during the latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to move east and remain well north of the area
at this time. However, as cold front slips south, this activity
will move south with it. So current forecast appears on track
for today. Temperatures keep oscillating up and down along the
immediate lakeshore between 40s on the shore to middle 50s just
inland. Trend should be toward cooler air pushing south through
the day.

Previous Discussion...

A pesky backdoor cold front will meander around the lakeshore this
morning in response to outflow boundaries pushing the colder air
south. A couple waves of low pressure will move east over Lake Erie
today and once the secondary wave pushes east this afternoon, we
should see the cold front push south during the day. Now, here is
the big fly in the ointment for today`s forecast.  There is a huge
difference in the models as far as POPs go.  The GFS says 98 percent
while the Canadian and NAM both are less than 10 percent.  So far,
the GFS does not appear to be handling the current precipitation
north of the area very well while the other two models seem to be
doing well with it. So, will lean in the direction of the NAM and
Canadian models for precipitation today. Cut way back on POPs for
today since moisture will be limited with the cold front sagging
south. Due to the mild air in place, can`t rule out a thunderstorm
with the frontal boundary.  Some convection developed over the north
shore of Lake Erie along the front over the last several hours.
Temperatures are going to be a bit of a mess today as well.  So far
we have seen the cold front meander back and forth over the
Cleveland Hopkins airport causing temperatures to drop into the 50s
and then climb back into the 60s.  Further south away from the lake
should see the milder temperatures in the 60s for highs until the
cold front pushes south. Big concern is will it reach the 70s before
frontal passage.  Will try to time the high temperatures with
location of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large nearly cutoff low pressure system moving ever so slowly east
across the middle Mississippi Valley region at this time will play a
role in the weather conditions we see tonight. Had to cut back on
POPs again for tonight and hold off precipitation threat until
Sunday and mainly in the west due to the slow timing of the low
pressure system. Eventually, showers move east across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, another upper level positive
vorticity maximum and associated moisture push east into the area
Monday night into Tuesday. The precipitation then exits stage right
as we head into Tuesday night under the influence of the ridge of
high pressure.

Temperatures through period remain on the mild side as warm air
advection begins to take place as cold front stalls south of the
area and becomes a warm front again Sunday.  As large low slowly
moves northeast, we will see the forecast area remaining in the warm
sector during this forecast period.  Looking at temperatures in the
60s for highs and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Wednesday with high pressure building south
across the lakes into the area. The GFS and ECMWF show reasonably
dry air across the region so will continue with a dry forecast and
partly cloudy skies. The high will move east across Canada Wednesday
night and Thursday.  This will allow low pressure to move across the
central Plains to Illinois by friday 12Z. Deep moisture will move
into the Ohio valley ahead of the low on Thursday and will continue
through Friday.  Will bring chance pops into the area Thursday in
the afternoon. High chance to likely look good Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Conditions remain VFR across northern Ohio early today but have
dipped to MVFR in northwest PA as the front appears to have
dropped to the south shore of the lake. To our north conditions
are MVFR and IFR. Guidance for today remains bipolar with the
GFS suggesting widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions through the day
across the area vs the NAM which shows restrictions mainly at
KTOL and KERI. Have incorporated trends of both with KTOL and
KERI MVFR and occasionally IFR through the day. Elsewhere will
begin Saturday VFR and gradually lower CIGS to MVFR through the
day or this evening. Overnight the NAM does bring conditions
down to MVFR however mainly visibilities with CIGS lifting as
low level flow turns more southeast suggesting the front may be
lifting back north. Confidence wavering overnight since if the
front remains over or south of the area cigs may remain MVFR or
lower.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Sunday night. Non VFR possible again
Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Stationary front just north of Lake erie will drop south across the
lake early today.  Winds will increase out of the northeast during
the afternoon likely reaching 15 to 20 knots.  This will last into
the night before veering southeast and decreasing towards morning
Sunday. Will issue a small craft advisory which will begin at 4pm
today and last until 10am Sunday.  Winds will likely improve before
10am Sunday but waves may take a bit longer to diminish.  The front
will likely move north across the lake again on Sunday as weakening
low pressure moves from the Central Plains to Lake Michigan. The low
will move northeast into Canada Monday. Monday night and early
Tuesday another low will follow, this one moving northeast across
Lake Erie.  A trailing cold front will follow.  Wednesday high
pressure will build in from the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ143>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK



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