Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING...
BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF TOL TO EAST OF MNN. INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH
ONLY 100-250 J/KG OF CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BAND WILL BACK AND ALIGNED
FROM NEAR TOL TO CAK WITH FURTHER PIVOTING IN A BACKING DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS EVENT SO .25 TO
.50 INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM TOL TO CAK WITH LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR ERI.



.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURESCAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.






&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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