Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 051151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slide east
across the Lower Great Lakes today.  The high will drift into New
England Tuesday...allowing a low pressure system to track across
the upper Ohio Valley.


Low pressure now over Lake Ontario and precip has moved east of
the forecast area with the system. Left chance for drizzle or
flurries in the east for remainder of this morning.

Original discussion...
Temps hovering in the mid to upper 30s across the entire forecast
area. The rain/snow thresholds have been 34 for snow and 36 for
rain. A little rain/rain-snow mix still lingering in the extreme
east. Expect precip to move east of the area by mid morning.
Stratus deck extends west into Iowa. Expect clouds to linger over
the entire area this morning...and not clearing in the extreme
east until this evening. As a result went a little below mos for
todays high temps.


The ridge of high pressure will move East of the forecast area this
evening and move into New England by late Tuesday.   This will allow
upper level short wave and surface low to track across the Ohio
Valley.  Still some timing differences...but basically models track
the surface low into KY by daybreak Tuesday. Models a little slower
with the precip today...with the precip not reaching the southern
forecast area until after 12z.  With the slower timing precip may
start as a brief mix...but should quickly transition to all rain.
Low quickly tracks into PA and dissipates as absorbed by a coastal

Upper level short wave drops across the Great Lakes Wednesday night
kicking off scattered snow showers.   Weak surface front moves
through Thursday ushering in much colder conditions by the weekend.


Models are in decent agreement into Friday afternoon with snow
showers expected to continue with some enhancement off of Lake Erie
expected for the Snowbelt. Models begin to differ Friday night with
the amount of ridging that spreads into the region. This will
impact how long the lake effect snow showers will linger into
Saturday. Will keep likely pops going into Friday night NE OH into
NW PA then tapering off through Saturday. A warm advection pattern
then sets up and will attempt to bring a period of snow to the
region Saturday night into Sunday. Models are struggling with the
timing of this. For now will handle this mention with slight chance
to chance pops.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages through the long term.
Highs will be in the mid 20s to around 30 for Friday and Saturday.
Slightly warmer on Sunday with all locations into the 30s.


.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Westerly winds of 8 to 15 knots will occur across the region into
the afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will be possible this
morning across NE OH and NW PA, strongest near the lakeshore.

Otherwise MVFR ceilings are common this morning. Models continue
to hint that a few hours of IFR remain possible at times through
18Z. However the best chances of this occurring will be from the
Central Highlands to NW OH. MVFR ceilings look as if they will
dissipate by 00Z but some high level cloud cover will be spilling
across the region.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in rain/snow
showers. Lake Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with
non-VFR expected, especially across NE OH/NW PA.


Winds have increased with the frontal passage and will go with a
small craft advisory for the eastern half of the lake into this
afternoon. High pressure will build over the lake by late afternoon
with the pressure gradient relaxing. East to southeast winds are
expected on Tuesday as a warm front lifts toward the lake. A cold
front will then sweep across the lake  Tuesday night with west to
northwest winds in its wake. Waves will build with the longer fetch
and will need to monitored for small craft advisory conditions. The
next surge of colder air will arrive on Thursday with westerly
winds increasing into Thursday night.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for


LONG TERM...Mullen
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