Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

High pressure will continue to build over the area from the
southeast today. A weak but dry cool front will push south
across the local area tonight. High pressure will build back over
the region Sunday and Monday but a cold front will cross the
region on Tuesday.


As we knew...temperatures would be the story so far.
Temperatures climbing nicely. Held off on the better/thicker
cloud cover until after dark. Otherwise no significant changes
were made with this midday update. See climate section below
for record temp references. Records already broken.

Previous discussion...Not much to talk about today other than
temps. Most areas should set new records today. We will be
getting off to a warm start with readings many areas still in
the lower 50s. There will be an increase in cloudiness from the
south today but most areas will be at least partly cloudy.
Overall it should seem a little cloudier than Friday.


Mild weather will continue the entire period. A weakening cold
front will sag south across the area tonight so highs on
Sunday should be a tad cooler than today...especially in the
north. Have still gone a few degrees above guidance. More of the
same for Monday with sunshine and mild temps. The next weather
maker of note will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Have
spread precip chances across the area during the day and then
dried things out from west to east on Tuesday night. Expect the
showers to be scattered in nature so comfortable not going
higher than chance pops for now. Have stayed to the warm side
of guidance the entire period.


Wednesday will be dry as the front from the night before will be
well off to the east by the afternoon and a weak short-wave ridge
will move eastward across the area. Temperatures will continue to be
much above normal Wednesday with highs likely rising into the 60s.

A warm front will move north through the area Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Some timing differences exist between the GFS
and ECMWF with the GFS remaining a few hours slower. A chance for
rain showers will exist along this boundary, but the uncertainty is
a little too high to have anything more than "slight chance" wording
for now during the afternoon on Thursday.

A strong storm system will develop across the Plains states and
track toward the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. Both the
ECMWF and GFS bring showers and storms into the forecast area late
Friday or Friday night. It is still too far out to get any more
specific than that at this time. Unseasonably warm weather will
persist until the front comes through, with highs on both Thursday
and Friday rising into the 60s.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Between weather systems with low pressure passing well to the
north and a southern branch low tracking across the Gulf Coast
states. Gusty southwest winds will diminish this evening. VFR
conditions will continue with patchy high clouds. Some of the
model guidance develops MVFR clouds later tonight but do not see
enough upward motion or lower level moisture for this to occur.
As the wind lightens late tonight though we may see patchy fog
develop due to the unseasonably high surface dew points, mainly
at inland sites. Winds will become more westerly on Sunday and
a lake breeze wind shift is likely first at KERI and later in
the day at KCLE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday


Breezy southwest winds will continue across Lake Erie through this
morning before diminishing through the afternoon hours. The best
waves will remain off shore, so there will be no need for a Small
Craft Advisory.

A weak front will drop south across the eastern Great Lakes on
Sunday and the flow will veer to the north and then east early next
week. A spring weather pattern will persist next week with winds
veering back to the south on Tuesday. Winds will increase ahead of a
weak cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night, but should remain well
below advisory criteria.


Records for 2/18 (as of Noon)

Toledo 59 in 1961...60 (2017)
Mansfield 60 in 1961...60 (2017)
Cleveland 62 in 1981...64 (2017)
Akron- Canton 60 in 1981...61 (2017)
Youngstown 59 in 2011...60 (2017)
Erie PA 61 in 1981...65 (2017)




NEAR TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mottice
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