Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211725
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THAT
POINT A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE WILL FINALLY BE GETTING A RIDGE TO BUILD
AND EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE BETTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT KICK IN UNTIL TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GET TEMPS
INTO AN 80 TO 85 RANGE FROM MOST PLACES WHICH IS FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY N THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. MODELS HINT AT A LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR EAST
TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MOST
OF THOSE CU TO BUILD TO THE POINT OF PRECIPITATING. KEPT POPS UNDER
20 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SUMMER...HEAT COMES IN STRETCHES
OF ONLY A FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN. THIS WILL WILL BE NO
EXCEPTION. WE TURN UP THE HEAT TUESDAY. A 591DAM RIDGE...H8 TEMPS
SURGING TO +19C...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES UP
NEAR 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE AND BE
CONSIDERED MUGGY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
IN NW OHIO ON TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD AS A TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND THE NON-OPTIMAL HOUR OF 8
AM. GOING FORECAST HAS TIMING SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF AND HAVE CONTINUED IN THAT MANNER. GFS IS SLOWER AND AT 8 AM
STILL HAS THE FRONT FROM LOWER MI BACK ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-71 WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. FRONTAL TIMING WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS AND ALSO
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THAT RANGE FROM 80 TO 88 AT CLEVELAND FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
ALONE. GRADIENT WILL BE COOLER NW OH AND WARMEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

THERE WILL POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EAST HALF ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES...BUT WEST SHOULD BE DRIED
OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOWER AND MID 70S RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS USUAL...
THE DETAILS ARE A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP VERY QUICKLY WHICH REACHES NORTHWEST OHIO ON
SATURDAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. WILL STICK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW
OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE FOR SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. WE SHOULD TRY TO WARM UP SATURDAY ASSUMING THAT THE
RAIN HOLDS OFF BUT THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE OVER ALL TROUGHY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPED BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT A LAKE BREEZE ALSO DEVELOPED. NO
TRIGGER FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THE CUMULUS WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. MORE MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS...SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE AT NON TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY MORE OF THE SAME WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY NOON ALONG
WITH A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING...SO IT SHOULD TAKE LONGER TO GET
TO CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE SOUTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT AND A LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ON TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NORTH WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK






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