Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO START. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS APPROACH BEFORE MORNING TO GET
BELOW ZERO AGAIN WITH REALLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE MADE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET.
FIRST THOUGHT IS THAT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR
FINDLAY...BUT MUCH MORE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS SNOW TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A VIGOROUS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT TRIES TO GO NEGATIVE BY MONDAY MORNING. HENCE...LOW
PRESSURE NEVER REALLY INTENSIFIES LIKE IT COULD HAVE HAD THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.

THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY ABUNDANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  INITIAL THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE SNOW WILL
BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS TEND TO OVERDO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WE TEND TO MIX PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERNS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION COULD STAY ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OR IF IT DOES
MIX WITH RAIN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SO RATHER THAN TRY TO BE PICKY ABOUT
WHERE THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
EXTREME EAST. WILL END THE WATCH AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN THE EAST FOR LINGERING SNOW THERE IF WE
GO WITH A WARNING DOWN THE ROAD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMING UP AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN TURNING COLDER
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GOOD NEWS...IS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM IS MODERATE IN NATURE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDING TOWARD OUR
AREA BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS HAVE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW JUST EXITING THE AREA.  WILL
HANG ONTO A CHANCE PF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST HALF IN THE
MORNING AND WILL DROP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST PA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST QUICKLY AND BY TUESDAY MORNING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WILL
NEED TO BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR SOUTHWEST FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP MOVING BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  PTYPE WILL BECOME A PROBLEM WITH 850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FASTER THAN THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AM EXPECTING A MIXED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE SNOW CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN WITH RAIN.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARDS MORNING WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE AREA DRYS
WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH. MOST OF THE CUMULUS HAD DISSIPATED. THE ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CIRRUS AND
THEN MID CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WELL BELOW ZERO.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MONDAY MORNING WIND WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK




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