Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 022315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC HAS A FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER NW OHIO AND INDIANA. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING AS A VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OHIO AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT
OFF OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...SEFCOVIC


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