Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 250456
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1256 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A weakening cold front will move southeast across the area
tonight into monday. High pressure will cross the eastern Great
Lakes Tuesday into Thursday. Low pressure is expected to move out
of the plains across Ohio Friday into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Main push of the latest MCS over Indiana and Illinois has been to
the south and southeast which will direct it away from the
region. However there is an outflow boundary and cold front
moving toward the region which will likely be able to generate
some isolated to maybe scattered thunderstorm development from
west to east through sunrise. Cant completely rule out a stronger
storm or two but believe the coolness of the overnight will limit
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will slowly press southeast on Monday. It is a weak
front and will undoubtedly be shallow. The morning showers/storms
and any new thunderstorms may be influenced by outflow boundaries
so it is difficult to determine how much new development there
could be. Will continue with a forecast of increasing pops from
northwest to southeast. Lake Erie and the immediate lakeshore
should become dry in the afternoon.
The storms should all be southeast of the forecast area by Monday
night. Temperatures will begin to cool off, at least a little.
High pressure slides across the lower Great Lakes through mid
week. The air mass will be drier but it will still be warm. Upper
80s for most except along Lake Erie where a north wind will cool it
off just a bit.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement with high pressure
centered over the lower lakes by mid week. high pressure gradually
moves east allowing for temps to rise into the mid to upper 80s.
Models continue to move large area of low pressure across northern
Ohio by the end of the work week. Low pressure moves into area on
Friday and moves east of the area Saturday. As far as timing GFS
continues to be faster than the ECMWF. Used superblend for the
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Upstream convection across Illinois and Indiana is expected to
move southward while cirrus spreads east overnight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also developing to the north across
Michigan and will move southeast overnight. Tried to time these
into the terminals, and brought thunderstorms into CLE/ERI after
10Z. Confidence is lower in thunderstorms elsewhere so just
included VCSH for now. Daytime heating may cause thunderstorms to
fill back in along this boundary during the late morning and early
afternoon. VFR conditions expected outside of showers except the
potential for some MVFR visibilities between 08-12Z. Wind will
generally be 10 knots or less out of the southwest tonight and
shift to the west during the day on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR
possible in thunderstorms on Friday.
Quiet conditions on the lake tonight give way to choppy conditions
in the east tomorrow. Winds will turn to the southwest and increase
to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow...behind a cold front will move across
the lake tomorrow morning. High pressure builds in quickly tomorrow
night and will remain over the lake through Thursday.