Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261727
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NW PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO. LATE IN
THE DAY...CLOSER TO 5 OR 6 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT
INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPECTING SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BY
STRONG/APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE AREA FOR THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO NW
PA...THEREFORE THE 50/50 POP FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST TRIES
TO PINPOINT THE PEAKS AND LULLS IN CONVECTION TIMING. FOR
WEDNESDAY THIS MEANS A LULL TO START...WITH AGAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TAIL
END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN ITS WAKE FOR
THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. NO
BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EITHER...STILL 80S DAYTIME/60S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PRETTY WARM DAY ON
SATURDAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES HINGING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT ENDS UP. THERE IS A FAIRLY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS
THAT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING CONSIDERABLY COOLER IF THE
FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST HOWEVER SO SUSPECT THE FRONT MAY NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. DESPITE THIS...DID LOWER HIGHS ON
SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKESHORE BY 4-7 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
18Z.

AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO NW OHIO AFTER 20Z...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KTOL...WITH COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING AS THIS AREA QUICKLY MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA...THEN
RETURNING AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IN THE OHIO WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO BUF
NEAR TERM...WFO BUF
SHORT TERM...WFO CLE
LONG TERM...WFO CLE
AVIATION...WFO BUF
MARINE...WFO CLE/BUF


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