Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 182340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
High pressure over the lower ohio valley will spread northeast over
ohio and into pennsylvania tonight...hold nearly stationary thursday
before shifting to the east coast friday. A weak low will move out
of texas into michigan friday and dissipate leaving a warm front
over the region. Another low will move from the gulf coast monday up
the Appalachians tuesday quickly followed by another low that moves
from texas late tuesday into michigan wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Drizzle continues to fall across the eastern half of the area.
Expect it to decrease in coverage through the evening but it will
linger across inland NW PA until after midnight.
Other than some minor changes to hourly temperatures the current
forecast is on track.
Patchy drizzle may try and hang on in the east until midnight.
The bigger issue is how well clouds can dissipate to allow for
radiational cooling. RH fields from the models indicate the east
will have a hard time clearing but the west has a much better
chance to see breaks in the clouds. To offset any clearing, the
airmass above the surface will be starting to see warm advection.
Still think lows should mainly be in the lower 30s with a few
upper 20s possible in the normally colder outlying locations. This
cloud lead to a few icy spots developing on roads and sidewalks
where they did not get a chance to dry.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next upper trough with a s/w rotating thru the arklatex area thu
will cause high and mid clouds to start increasing from sw to ne on
thu while highs look to climb into a 42 to 48 degree range.
Lower levels moisten thu night to allow precip to spread ne across
the cwa but the eastern part of the snowbelt should stay dry until
fri morning. Temps will bottom out as low as the lower 30s in the ne
thu night but thrut the cwa temps should start to rise the latter
part of the night so the precip type should just be rain.
The band of rain with the low and warm front should progress ne
across the cwa fri while diminishing some in intensity which should
keep the area from having any flooding problems. Most areas should
see a break in the rain developing from sw to ne later fri into fri
night and last well into sat. By sat night, another surge of deep
moisture and lift will spread into the area leading to an increased
threat for rain again.
Temps will stay well above normal fri thru sat night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper level trough over North America is expected to close off
over the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl northeast up the Atlantic
coast during the early part of next week. Easterly flow will develop
ahead of this system and transport a plume of moisture towards the
area. Although models have slowed slightly over the last 24 hours,
another round of rain is expected Sunday night and Monday. As the
low moves north up the coast, chances of rain remain but will become
more dependent on where bands set up. Above normal temperatures on
Sunday start to trend cooler on Monday as east to northeast flow
sets up off the lake. Although a modest cool down can be expected
into the 40s, looks like above normal conditions will continue
through the first half of the week.
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Very little change is expected with the near term cloud deck.
Expecting some drizzle at Cleveland and Youngstown early.
Visibilities will be in the MVFR category through the night most
areas and back to VFR tomorrow. Otherwise, we should see low deck
of clouds gradually exit the area during the afternoon hours
followed by some high clouds as next system approaches from the
southwest. Winds generally 6 knots or less through the period.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday and Sunday.
A prolonged period of fairly good marine conditions are expected on
Lake Erie with wind speeds forecast to be 15 knots or less through
Saturday. Winds on Lake Erie will remain out of the southwest at 10-
15 knots tonight then become light as high pressure builds
overhead...then shifts to the east coast late Thursday. Winds will
develop out of the east Thursday night ahead of a trough that will
lift north across the lake on Friday. Another broad area of low
pressure will lift north from the Gulf coast on Sunday with east to
northeast winds developing on the lake. Some uncertainty remains
with the track and evolution of this system but may bring the next
window of near Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie as the
flow increases ahead of this system.