Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 042005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING ALONG ITS
SOUTH SIDE. THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO ADD SOME LIFT TO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. 2000-3000 CAPES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ROBUST
TOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER IF WE CAN STILL GET ENOUGH HEATING
EARLY THIS EVENING TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP TO THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPS THERE STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
THIS MAY END UP BEING OVERKILL FOR THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND THE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE EAST
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
AND WITH SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS. BY MONDAY IT
APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND DO
NOT PLAN TO MENTION THE CONVECTION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHANGING ONCE AGAIN AND NOT
PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAVOR IF ONE LIKES WARM WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SHAPING UP WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

FIRST FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENDING THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DECK FROM THE
REMNANT MCS FROM THIS MORNING IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
IMPACTING MAINLY CAK AND YNG. CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND
EXTREME WESTERN OHIO. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT A MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

GIVEN A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...ADDED MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR
FOG TO FORM AT ALL TAF SITES AND FOR SOME PATCHY IFR FOG TO ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RATHER QUIET FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY AIR MASS CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY SO MUCH OF THE SAME. POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...TRYING TO
QUIET THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOWN OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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