Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1054 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 6 AM
FRIDAY AS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. IT WILL BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW IN SPOTS. THE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE ADVISORY COULD HAVE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE
AND OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
     020>023-033-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK





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