Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311639
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA. A WEAK FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS FINALLY STARTED TO POP ACROSS THE AREA. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AS MORE
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
INDIANA. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST. SO WILL BE LEAVING FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN LAKE
ERIE COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS AND MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE NE
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON SATURDAY MORNING
IN NW PA...EXPANDING TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CANADA. BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT TROUGH WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...AND EXPANDING TO ALL
AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE FRONT
INITIALLY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES FOR A
CHANCE FOR SOME OVER RUNNING SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE
THREAT OF RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR THAT NOTHING
MATERIALIZES. IT IS WORTH A MENTION BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS REMAIN FAR APART BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING ANOTHER OVER RUNNING WAVE THAT COULD AT LEAST CATCH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DRY
FORECAST...ONE WOULD EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTH AT
SOME POINT GIVEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT.

SHAVED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO ON FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MID WEEK
GIVEN THE THREAT FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THE COOL FLOW. TEMPS
COULD BE COOLER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT WAS TO BE CLOUDY
AND RAINY BUT WITH THE DAYS SO LONG AND WARM IN EARLY AUGUST WILL
STAY WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CHUNK OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLIDING EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CAPE
DEVELOP IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS
PROGGED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
SMALL BUT THE THREAT IS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT TAF FORECASTS AS
"VICINITY" AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT FORECAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT...EACH WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE...MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE SINCE THE FLOW IS WEST
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL POST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ERIE COUNTY PA LAKESHORE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE WIND WILL BE OVER THE
EAST THIRD OF THE LAKE BUT 4 FOOT WAVES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
AT ERIE PA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE LATER SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. BOTH OF THOSE SYSTEMS MAY WELL REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST LAKESHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES NEXT WEEK AND THE
FLOW WILL LIKELY VEER MORE FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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