Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011109
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO NEW YORK BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER CENTRAL OHIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NAMDNG DEPICTED THIS DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER AND NOW IT APPEARS THE MODEL HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.
SO ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ENDING.

OTHERWISE...UPDATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATER THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING SOME TROUGHINESS ALOFT
AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
THE MINIMAL CHANCE THERE. OTHERWISE...CROSSING MY FINGERS IT WILL
STAY DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. NOT
LOOKING AT ANY AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
HENCE THE DRY FORECAST. ACTUALLY...STREAMLINES INDICATING MORE OF A
DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN STATUS QUO SO TO SPEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO WILL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SMALL PERTURBATION OR KINK IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL SPREAD A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. EVENTUALLY...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GET EJECTED
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AIR MASS REMAINS STAGNANT ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES BUT A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY
AND WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 80 DEGREES. AS SURFACE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MONDAY THE WEAK RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE WNW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BUT MAY NEED
TO INCREASE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR. WILL CONTINUE THIS MIX
THROUGH 14Z AND THEN CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16-18Z. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000
FT THROUGH HALF OF THE AFTERNOON THEN ALLOW DECK TO SCATTER.
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN VFR BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT
LEAST MVFR INLAND NORTHEAST IN FOG/STRATUS.


OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY 12Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THE LAKE AT ROUGHLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO.  THE WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK


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