Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR
VERY SMALL SHOWERS COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT I EXPECT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AS FLOW MOVES IN OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE
TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD
BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE...ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WET SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BARELY COOL ENOUGH AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP TOP
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT.

DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IS PROGGED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE MORNING CLOUDS NE OH/NW PA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY SO AREAS NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. 50S INLAND.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE SHOULD SEE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL.

NOT REAL EXITED ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WELL TO THE WEST AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SO THE ACTIVITY COULD GET SOME MOMENTUM AS
IT COMES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT AND
RUNNING INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER LARGE...NOT GOOD
INDICATORS OF RAIN. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
CROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
NW OHIO.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MILD PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOWERED THE
CHANCES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THERE
SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH S/W`S ROTATING THRU WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE LAKES THRU MON. CANADIAN AIR SPREADING
OVER THE AREA AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHRA.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUN THEN A SLOW MOVING
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AND EJECT EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW BACK FAR TO THE SW OF THE
AREA AND KEEPS DRYER AIR OVER OH AND PA. WILL AVERAGE THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NOW KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR HANGING OVER THE AREA
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SE THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFT SE OF CAK AND YNG BY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HANGING AROUND TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPS
COULD GET MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z.

THERE WILL BE A MIX OF LOW MVFR AND SOME IFR ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR STARTING AT TOL BY LATE MORNING AND PROGRESSING SE
THRU YNG AND CAK BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY
TONIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...BUT TEND TO
STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE A LOT OF THE TIME.

AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA TODAY THRU EARLY
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED MORNING IN THE SNOWBELT. NON VFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NW AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SCA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN SOME WHILE AIR TEMPS RISE A LITTLE ABOVE THE LAKE TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WINDS. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE LAKES THU
NIGHT THRU SAT PULLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRI. MAY AGAIN SEE SCA CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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