Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291320
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY AND FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NY AND IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
LOCKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WI TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR NW IN THE WARM TONGUE OVER IN. DESPITE INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF OUR
FORECAST. THE MORNING CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL THIN
AND SPREAD MORE EAST TODAY...BUT SHOULDN`T DAMPEN TODAY`S HIGHS
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 70S EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE FROM CLE EAST.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GOING
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE BECAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AND WILL BE MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
TONIGHT DRY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ON SATURDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING UP THROUGH WESTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO NW
OH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW OH AND NW PA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT FROM THE NW SO KEPT THE HIGH
POPS MAINLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE A 30 POP EVEN WITH THE AREA IN
BETWEEN SURFACE FEATURES AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  A RARE
OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. HIGH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BY THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOKING
AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AS AIR
MASS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIRRUS SPREADING EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT ERIE OR
CLEVELAND.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE BY TUESDAY AND BASICALLY
MEET ITS DEMISE AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY BUT REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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