Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160242
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will shift to the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Monday. Low pressure will track out of the southern Plains lifting
a warm front north across the area on Monday night. A cold front
will be pulled east across the area behind this system on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cloud cover and temperatures will be the main focus of the forecast
overnight as mid and high clouds continues to stream eastward ahead
of the ridge building over the Mississippi Valley. With high
pressure at the surface and light winds, temperatures have
dropped off fairly quickly across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. For our southwestern counties, expecting skies to
remain mostly cloudy overnight so have kept temperatures warmer
than MOS guidance. Forecast lows range from the upper teens in NW
PA to mid 20s from Findlay to Mount Vernon. Have only brought
winds down further in the forecast grids. Otherwise everything
else is on track for this mid evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure developing over the southern Plains will
track northeast to near Chicago by Tuesday morning. An extensive
stratus deck is located across the Ohio Valley and will lift north
on Monday as south to southwest flow develops aloft. Favorable
moisture advection takes place aloft on Monday but low levels will
take a little longer to saturate. Pops increase from the
southwest on Monday but any qpf is expected to be light. Did leave a
slight chance of freezing rain in a few of the western counties
where spotty precip may start before temperatures warm above the
freezing mark but precip would be brief if it occurs at all.

High temperatures on Monday will occur overnight as the warm
front lifts north across the area. Temperatures expected to warm
to 40 or above for all areas by Tuesday morning. Rain is also
expected to become widespread Monday night as deep moisture
arrives ahead of the trough lifting out of the plains. Did
introduce a slight chance of thunder late Monday night into
Tuesday morning with sufficient elevated instability and favorable
dynamics ahead of the trough. Rain expected to gradually taper off
from west to east on Tuesday as a dry-slot wraps into the system.
Expecting around a half inch of qpf with this event although
thunderstorms could result in locally higher amounts. Expect we
will be able to handle the qpf if it remains closer to half inch
but if values get close to an inch then flooding becomes a concern
again.

Temperatures cool behind the front on Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with a transition back to a rain/snow mix late
Wednesday. Little to no snow accumulation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in reasonable agreement moving large area of high pressure
across the Upper Ohio Valley Thursday...with the high moving off
East Coast Thursday night. ECMWF moves the next short wave
through on Friday...while GFS holds it back until Friday night.
For now will lean toward continuity and use the slower GFS
solution for my forecast. Both models show well above normal temps
so attm all precip should fall in the form of rain. A dry Saturday
should give way to more rain on Sunday as another low tracks into
the Central Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes will slowly slide
eastward through the night. This will allow the light and variable
winds to become southeast to east on Monday. Winds will increase
slightly Monday afternoon but should remain under 10 knots.

As a warm front moves northward across Ohio ceilings will lower
but believe any precipitation will not reach the surface with dry
lower levels of the atmosphere. Ceilings will lower to MVFR
levels by mid afternoon across the west and then slowly spread
eastward. Any rainfall will be very light and will only help to
moisten the lower levels and produce some thickening fog. Better
chances of rain will arrive after 00z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday night through Tuesday in ra. May mix with
or change to a little snow Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will gradually turn to the south as high
pressure...now centered over Lake Erie shifts to the East Coast
overnight.  Low pressure tracks into the Central Lakes Tuesday
afternoon dragging a cold front across the Lake.   Winds turn to the
West to Southwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots Tuesday night into
Wednesday in the colder air. High pressure will build back over the
lake Wednesday night and linger into early Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



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