Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL CONTINUES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE EAST. BY AFTERNOON...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR. A FEW MORE CLOUDS COULD BE NOTED IN THE EAST DOWNWIND OF LE
AS THE WIND BLOWS OFF THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP QUICKLY. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST THE COOLING IS THE
SHORT NIGHTS AND WHAT WARMTH WE HAD DURING THE DAY. WILL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AND ADD INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO
THE FREEZE WARNING SINCE SOME OF THOSE INLAND LOCATIONS CAN GET
QUITE CHILLY. WILL ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CLEVELAND TO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA. LOWS AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S INLAND ERIE/CRAWFORD PA WITH MID 30S IN THE FROST
ADVISORY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PROBABLY
JUST COME SHORT OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE BEST CHANCE PROBABLY AT YNG
AND ERI.

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHOW UP ON SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. HIGHS
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION...WARM ADVECTION...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO WARRANT A LOT OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THREAT THERE IS FOR SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A REAL TRIGGER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE THE THREAT OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT I SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNEAKING INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OHIO AND UP TOWARD
LAKE ERIE. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT IF I HAD TO
BET I WOULD SAY THAT MONDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH A CHANCE
THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND SUMMER LIKE. HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SETTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING
ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE 00Z MODEL SUITE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE AS
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW IN RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES DURING THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME SO WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL DEPEND ON
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE GET A DRY DAY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH THE MID 80S OR
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND WILL IMPACT YNG THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF ASHTABULA WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AT THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FROM 4-10 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE LINGERING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ012-013-022-023-033-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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