Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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482
FXUS61 KCLE 281021
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
621 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley region
today and tonight. Weak waves of low pressure will move east
across the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. The low pressure
system will finally move east of the area Sunday allowing high
pressure to build in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. The
high will then move southeast of the area by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Light shower activity continues to move northeast across the
southern tier counties. They gradually dissipate as they try to
push north. Further expansion will take place through the morning
hours so current forecast is still on target. Otherwise, just some
minor temperature changes.

Previous Discussion...

As low pressure approaches the area today, moisture will begin to
stream northeast into the forecast area. The heating and
instability present in combination with the moisture should be
enough to support the development of some showers and
thunderstorms across the southern tier counties today. Latest
radar indicates some shower activity already pushing north into
the southwest portion of Ohio. This activity should move into the
southern portions of our area by Sunrise this morning and spread
slowly north through the day. Temperatures will be dependent on
how much sun pokes through the clouds and the precipitation
threat. Considering we are not experiencing an air mass change
for the most part, any sun we get will help boost temperatures
back into the middle 80s for highs. So, will be shooting for those
temperatures for maximum values today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow over the forecast area today will give way to
broad troughiness by the end of the week. The persistent
troughiness will result in a series of low pressure systems that
will move east across the Ohio Valley region. This trend will keep
a threat for inclement weather going through much of this forecast
period.

All of the computer models support a threat for some type of
shower and thunderstorm activity just about each day as the series
of low pressures move slowly through the area. Eventually, the
final wave of low pressure will push east to the eastern seaboard
by Sunday allowing high pressure to begin building into the
forecast area.

The storm prediction center has the forecast area outlooked for at
least general thunderstorms through the early part of the forecast
period.

Some slightly cooler air will begin to nudge south into the
forecast area by the weekend with the high pressure. Highs will be
in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s toward the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and drier air will expand south over the area on
Monday as the upper level trough shifts to our east. Could still see
a healthy cu deck develop in the east with lingering moisture but
overall subsidence should be on the increase and chances of an
isolated thunderstorm should be confined to areas from Youngstown
northeast into Pennsylvania. Near seasonal temperatures expected on
Monday before trending warmer through the middle of next week. The
upper level ridge is progged to expand eastward across the Southern
Great Lakes Region but long range models are struggling to resolve
energy moving around the ridge. A low 20-30 percent pop returns to
the forecast from Tuesday night on as moisture pushes back north.
Little confidence in timing any convection that may develop overhead
or move into the area from upstream at this time. Mid-levels will
be warm and will act as a limiting factor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds spreading
northeast into the area. Conditions are VFR although could see
visibilities near TOL drop off briefly later tonight where less
cloud cover is expected. Otherwise the main forecast challenge will
be if or where showers or storms may develop this afternoon into
this evening as a weak cold front pushes south across Lake Erie.
High cloud will limit instability so did not include any
thunderstorms in the terminals. With that said, scattered showers
may develop with a chance of thunderstorm after 18Z and did
include VCSH at MFD/CAK/YNG where chances are highest. Winds will
be light through the TAF cycle, becoming northerly with the
frontal passage during the afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Thursday evening
through Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected into next week. Lake
breezes will develop again today with onshore flow. A weak cold
front will move south across Lake Erie this evening with north to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots continuing into Friday. This will
result in waves increasing to the 1 to 3 foot range. Light northeast
flow will continue through the weekend as an area of high pressure
sets up north of Lake Erie and a weak area of low pressure moves
through the Ohio Valley. The high will expand south over the
lake on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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