Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041750
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LI DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND SFC
BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 500 J/KG NEAR THE MNN AREA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING/BUILDING OVER THE UNSTABLE AREA
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES OVER MORROW COUNTY AND NEAR
YNG. THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE NNE. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INCREASING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND NEAR ERIE
ALLOWED FOR WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURE. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
THIS AND MAKE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAISE
POPS IN THE EAST AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TO START.
THE COVERAGE WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS TOL/MFD/LPR/CAK AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL START VFR...WITH MVFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF IFR IS LIKELY TOO...BUT
HARD TO PINPOINT WHO WILL HIT IT WITH CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF
1K FEET. BEST CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE TOL/FDY/MFD. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. WINDS ABOVE 10 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND FOR TOL/FDY FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALSO CLE/ERI FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK



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