Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271403
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1003 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LOWERED MORNING CLOUD COVER WEST BASED ON SATELLITE WHICH
SHOWS RAPID DISSIPATION. CLOUDS ALSO ERODING EAST BUT THAT SHOULD
TAKE LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CU INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY ON BALANCE. NO TEMP CHANGES AT THIS POINT.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH...BUT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FIRST THING THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY VFR...BUT SOME
MVFR COMES AND GOES WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING OFF OF THE LAKE. CLEARING HAS REACHED NW OH...BUT THAT WILL
FILL IN BY MID MORNING WITH NEW CU DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
COVER TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AND THEY MAY DIP TO MVFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TIME...ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD BE UPWARDS OF 8 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE WNW THROUGH NORTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE SLIGHT VSBY ISSUES TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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