Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 110519
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1219 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME. MULTIBAND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT WITH WNW FLOW
VEERING TO NW. AS FLOW VEERS MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND AROUND CUYAHOGA
AND GEAUGA COUNTIES SHOULD GET PUSHED INLAND AND BREAK DOWN THEN
WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF BAND FROM LAKE HURON EXTENDING DOWN INTO NW
PA.

BEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF GEAUGA AND INLAND ERIE COUNTY PA. WITH
MULTIBAND LES...INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME AND WILL HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE SPOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE
CURRENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONCLUDES BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY  NIGHT AS THE
INVERSION LOWERS AND FLOWS BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
ALLOWS ANY BANDS TO MIGRATE UP THE COAST. THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
STILL SO COLD THAT EVEN WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY THERE WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY OFFSHORE WHICH COULD
SAG INTO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND DROP THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE TO FRIGID READINGS OF -24 TO -27C WHICH IS QUITE COLD
FOR THIS REGION AND LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BARELY BUDGE WITH THIS INTENSE
COOLING ALOFT. EXPECT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE HURON TO
DEVELOP AND EXTEND SOUTH AND SLICE ACROSS I-90 OVER ASHTABULA AND
EXTREME WESTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BAND WILL THEN GRADUALLY PIVOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. THE BAND WILL LIKELY BE QUITE NARROW BUT INTENSE.
ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT FRIGID QUIET CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL BR WRAPPING UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF COMING OUT OF THE DEEP COLD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMALS BY MONDAY. A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BE ON THE
HORIZON FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A NUMBER OF
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE DETAILS. FOR NOW WE KEEP THE GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM
WESTERN CANADA MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP GENERIC
30-50 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES GOING THOUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING CLE HAS
FINALLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS BAND WILL CLIP CAK/YNG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW DECREASING AFTER 08Z FOR ALL SITES BUT ERI.
ERI WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM
LAKE HURON ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED BUT TRIED
TO TIME IT INTO ERI WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 11-15Z. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OF NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT ERI THROUGH 22Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN
PUSHING 30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A WIDE
OPEN LAKE IN THE LOWER 30S. NOMOGRAMS SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
SPRAY TONIGHT...JUST SHY OF THE EXTREME THAT IS NEEDED FOR A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS IS
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE GET MARGINAL GALES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THIS
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WIND. BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WINDS CALM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT
THIS POINT THE LAKE IS PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
BEGIN TO COME OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ011-012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ013-014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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