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000
FXUS61 KCLE 071123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD
EAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY. SUNNY WITH
JUST A FEW CIRRUS TODAY. IT WILL START COLD THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT RADIATED OVERNIGHT. WE WARMED UP
NICELY WHERE WE HAD A SOUTH FLOW YESTERDAY (AS COMPARED TO THE ENE
FLOW ACROSS NW OHIO) AND EVERYONE SHOULD SHARE IN THE SOUTH FLOW
TODAY. THE DEEPER SNOW COVER ACROSS NW OHIO AND INLAND NW PA WILL
SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH FROM
AROUND 40 TO CLOSER TO 50 IN THE SOUTH! A TASTE OF SPRING. THERE
WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE SO AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S
NEAR LAKE ERIE...AT LEAST WITHIN A COUPLE OF MILES OF THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE TOLEDO AREA AROUND 7 AM
(12Z) THEN SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW AT FIRST. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL
POST FRONTAL. FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL AND THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE. AS THE COLD AIR GETS DEEPER...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE MUCH
ACCUMULATION ALTHOUGH A COATING OF FRESH SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
HILLS AND THE SNOWBELT IS A POSSIBILITY. WILL MENTION UPWARDS OF AN
INCH...MAINLY EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO
THE 30S. SUNSHINE MAY FADE BEHIND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WARM
ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY.

NERVOUS THAT WE COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IT IS GETTING INTO SPRING
TIME NOW AND THESE LOW LEVEL JET SYSTEMS GET MORE ENERGETIC. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW POP CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY`S WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS A STRENGTHENING
ROCKIES LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN JET STREAM TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
COMING IN STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.
BOTH HOWEVER KEEP THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME MIX AT THE ONSET AND IN THE SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
OVER/NEAR THE LAKESHORE TUESDAY WHICH WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL THE MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS SHUNTED TO OUR
SOUTH LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE GFS NOTABLY COLDER WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND -12C.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE WEEK WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES STRIVING TO RETURN TO NORMALS (40S). OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTS COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
BUT OVERALL LIMITED PRECIPITATION. THE BREAKS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE LAKE`S ICE COVER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIR REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE WARM UP AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER A LATE AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS TO GO
CALM OR NORTHWEST BRIEFLY AT TOL/CLE. THINK THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
AT ERI MAY PRECLUDE THEM FROM A WIND SHIFT. ALL OTHER SITES WILL
SEE A PREDOMINANT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
AND AHEAD OF FROPA AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHWEST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT EXCEPT FOR SOME
SLIGHT DOWN SLOPING NEAR ERIE WHERE GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDES SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT AGAIN WIND SPEEDS UNDER 15KTS THROUGHOUT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN. THIS COULD SUPPORT WINDS AROUND
20 TO 25KT OVER THE LAKE AND A PREDOMINANT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND.
NO GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...JAMISON