Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID
WEEK...TRAPPED BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND NOW STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA FROM A
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE WEST GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANALYSIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTING OHIO NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RAIN IS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE YOUNGSTOWN- WARREN AREA...OR EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS.
THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA DURING THE NEXT
HOUR AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE. FURTHER
WEST...JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. AGAIN ALL THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT THINKING REMAINS THAT POPS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRIER AIR CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...ADAMS






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