Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 292010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

A weak cold front will move across the area tonight. High pressure
will build in behind it for Memorial Day and slowly drift east
across the Great Lakes Region through Wednesday. Low pressure will
move across the Upper Lakes into Canada on Thursday with a trailing
cold front moving east across the area.


Upper level trough can be seen on water vapor moving northeast across
the western Great Lakes with low pressure at the surface located
north of Lake Superior. A cold front extends south across western
Michigan with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing a
little farther east along a pre-frontal trough from the thumb
southwest into Indiana. Deep layer dry air is in place as seen on a
special 18Z sounding out of DTX and suspect this will limit storm
growth, despite ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Subsidence behind the
wave may also be having an impact on storm development within the
deeper dry air. If a more robust storm develops can not completely
rule out a stronger wind gust or two given the mid- level dry air
but the threat seems to be decreasing.

In the east, the deeper moisture has been focused into Pennsylvania
with considerable mid and high cloud across eastern Ohio. A few
sprinkles have developed from Cleveland southward but so far the
cloud cover and cooler temperatures have limited showers from
developing. Model soundings also show a lack of moisture below 8k
feet and it looks like activity may be limited until the front
arrives from the west later this evening. Lowered pops but will
continue with a chance of showers or thunderstorms later this
evening as the front pre-frontal trough arrives. Showers should
diminish towards midnight with the loss of daytime heating. Lows
will dip into the lower 60s.


Dewpoints will drop back into the upper 50s on Memorial Day
behind the front and combine with temperatures in the lower
80s(70s in PA) to bring more comfortable conditions with lower
heat index values. Shallow cu field will develop but mid levels
will be very dry and cu should tend to mix out through the
afternoon. High pressure will be overhead through the first half
of the week and lows will generally be in the upper 50s except
near 60 in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Southerly return flow starts
to develop on Wednesday ahead of the next system with slightly
warmer highs and lows.


Long range models have another broad upper level trough swinging
through the eastern United States by the middle of the week carrying
into the weekend. Unfortunately, the upper level ridge over the
western half of the United States really amplifies resulting in
deepening of the eastern United States trough axis.  This in turn
does not do well for warmer temperatures.

Low pressure is progged to move east across the northern Great Lakes
region Thursday forcing a cold front to sweep east across the area.
The cold front will bring with it showers and thunderstorms with the
best chance being Thursday into Thursday night.  Drier air following
the front may scoot into the forecast area sooner than Thursday
night bringing an end to the precipitation threat. But will keep a
chance in the east if the front slows in forward motion.

Extensive high pressure will slide southeast into the mid
Mississippi valley region by Friday morning ushering in the drier
and cooler air mass.  A vigorous positive vorticity maximum will
slide southeast across the area with associated moisture and
therefore will bring another round of precipitation to the area for
Sunday.  Question is how extensive will the convection be with the
upper level feature.

As mentioned earlier, the downside to the upper level trough will be
the cold air advection that will take place across the region. We
will be looking at the possibility for much cooler temperatures by
early next week.


.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak pre-frontal trough moving east across the area at this time
is producing some virga or very light rain showers. The line is
just west of a Cleveland to Mansfield line at this time. Will add
a mention of a tempo group for about an hour as the line moves
through. This will not include Toledo and Findlay since the line
is already east of those two terminals. Cold front is lagging back
west of the area and will move east across the area overnight.
Expecting some fair weather cumulus to form in the wake of the
trough before sunset and then extensive cloud deck around 3500
feet from Cleveland to Mansfield west at sunset. Otherwise, clear
skies overnight into tomorrow as high pressure builds in. Winds
should go light and variable overnight becoming westerly around 8
to 10 knots tomorrow.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Thursday.


Lake is expected to be mostly quiet for the first half of the week
this week with generally light and variable winds. A northeast flow
at 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night may be just enough for a small craft
advisory. So, will have to monitor this situation over the next
couple days. Winds then calm down again Wednesday and go light and
variable through the rest of the week. Any headlines will be short
lived mid week.




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