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000
FXUS61 KCLE 121720
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ON SATURDAY AND SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...JUST PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER GRAPHICS. COLD OUT THERE WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NW OHIO AND NEARLY STEADY IN THE TEENS NE
OH/NW PA. THE WIND IS NOT THAT STRONG AWAY FROM THE LAKE ERIE
LAKESHORE BUT 10 MPH STILL GIVES A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL. NUDGED
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND MAX DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST
AREAS.

THE WIND HAS BACKED TO SOUTHWEST AT ERIE PA AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
(NO LONGER CONVERGING OFF THE LAKE AS MUCH)...AND EXPECT THE TREND
TO CONTINUE. THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT OFF SHORE...AT LEAST THE SIGNIFICANT BANDS. A LITTLE
NERVOUS THAT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ERIE
COUNTY LAKE SHORE FOR SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT BUT MAYBE IT IS
STRICTLY UP TOWARD NORTHEAST PA OR PERHAPS JUST WESTERN NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY OVER NW PA. MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL BE UP THE LAKE FROM KERI GIVEN A FLOW JUST SOUTH OF WEST. A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE EVERY
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ERIE
COUNTY. A DRAMATIC DROP OFF IN ACCUMS IS LIKELY THE FURTHER WEST
AND SOUTH YOU GO. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE
CONFINED TO JUST A FEW TOWNSHIPS IN ERIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SKIES
WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN STALL. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALLOWING DEEP
MOISTURE TO PENETRATE THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND MOVEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. BUT...THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOW COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND LIKE THE
00Z ECMWF...KEEPS THE PRECIP ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ISN`T ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AND
EXPECT THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER TROFFING
HANGING AROUND SUN FOR AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO OCCUR. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY SHUT
OFF THE SHSN. THE MODELS INDICATE A S/W ROTATING ACROSS THE LAKES
INTO THE MON THRU TUE TIME FRAME BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. WILL
TEND TO STAY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST LEAVING CHANCE POPS. GOING
INTO WED THE MODELS START TO DIFFER GREATLY...SHOWING HUGE POSSIBLE
TEMPS DIFFERENCES. UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS WILL
USE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW HUGGING THE ERIE SHORELINE EAST OF CLE WILL
EFFECT MAINLY ERI THIS EVENING. EVERYONE ELSE WILL SEE MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE. HARDEST HIT WILL BE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLE...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT CLE AND YNG.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCT CONDITIONS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRI STILL SEEM REASONABLE
UNTIL A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE LAKE. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST INTO SAT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP THEN MOVE NNE NEAR
ERI BY LATE SAT EVE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN MORNING. BASED ON THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...COULD A NE FLOW INCREASE
TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE SAT THEN THE FLOW BACKS TO WEST
LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SSW LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON AND SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD END.

RAPID ICE GROWTH IS EXPECTED ON THE WEST PART OF THE LAKE INTO SAT
THEN ICE GROWTH WILL SLOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS TEMPS WARM SOME. ICE
GROWTH WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORNING AS COLDER AIR
RE-SPREADS OVER THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS