Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 252330
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Lake Erie will move east tonight and off the
East Coast Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will push
southeast through the region late Thursday as low pressure
tracks along it to our south. Another area of high pressure
will spread southeast into the area Friday and linger into
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair weather is expected through Wednesday as high pressure over
the region slowly shifts east off the East coast Wednesday
afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with some
patchy fog possible in river valleys. Lower dewpoints will allow
temperatures to range from near 60 at the lakeshore to the lower
to mid 50s inland. No changes to tonight with this early evening
update.

Mostly clear skies are expected Wednesday as warm advection
develops. There will be some increase in high and mid clouds in
the afternoon from convection to the west. 850 mb temperatures
will warm about 6-8C on Wednesday. Raised afternoon high
temperatures on Wednesday slightly to reflect the strong warming
aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge will break down Wednesday night with cloud cover
increasing from the west. Convection is expected to develop upstream
across Iowa/Illinois Wednesday night and will have an impact on the
weather for Thursday. The most likely track for this convection will
be to the southeast along the better instability gradient. Given
this expectation will keep the forecast dry until late Wednesday
night with rain arriving from the west on Thursday. Nudged this
back just a couple more hours with this update. The 12Z
GFS/Canadian seem to offer a better depiction of this while the
NAM/ECMWF are more aggressive with brining the stronger
convection east into our area. Will continue with showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday but expect the more intense convection
to be focused south of the forecast area. This aligns well with
the SPC Day 3 outlook which keeps the Slight Risk south of the
forecast area. Tapered pops down slightly in the northeast with
concerns that the moisture transport may be disrupted enough
that a lower pop is appropriate. Also lowered highs a little in
the south on Thursday given the coverage of showers and clouds.
Adjustments will likely still be needed based on how
thunderstorms upstream unfold.

Low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley early Friday ahead of
an upper trough dropping through the Great Lakes region. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms will linger on Friday, especially in the
east ahead of the trough during the afternoon. Will hold onto chance
pops but they may need to be raised. Temperatures will trend cooler
with northerly winds increasing on the back side of the system and
highs generally in the low to mid 70s. High pressure and drier air
will arrive by Saturday as high pressure builds over the central
Great Lakes. More sun on Saturday will allow highs to recover
several degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet and cool weather is expected during the period as high
pressure slowly builds over the region from the north.  The models
begin to diverge toward the end of the period with the GFS trying to
bring a weak cold front across the region on Tuesday.  The ECMWF
dissipates this front before it reaches the area and keeps the local
area dry on Tuesday.  That seems to be the preferred scenario and
will keep things dry.  High temps will be a couple degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Stratocu deck in place across the region will continue to erode
from the north and west. A few patches of MVFR ceilings will
linger through 19Z, but after that point expect all sites to be
VFR. Most sites should lose their ceiling by 23Z.

Winds today range from NE-NW on the southern periphery of high
pressure over the central Great Lakes. Winds will become light
to calm overnight which may allow Patchy MVFR BR to develop at
MFD/CAK/YNG between 10-13Z. Winds will develop out of the south
on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold front expected
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow on Lake Erie will increase to 10-15 knots tonight as
high pressure shifts from the central Great Lakes to New England.
Winds will shift around to the south on Wednesday but lake breezes
will develop on the east half of the lake Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley late Thursday pulling
a cold front south across Lake Erie. Northerly winds will increase
behind the front Thursday night through Friday Night and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Winds expected to be at least 15-
20 knots but could exceed 25 knots depending on the track of the
system. Winds and waves expected to decrease through the day on
Saturday as this system pulls away to the east.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik/Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...KEC/Kosarik



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