Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS61 KCLE 110440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1140 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

Low pressure will track northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday
night and Sunday with snow overspreading the area. The snow will mix
with rain as a warmer air lifts north through the region Sunday
night. As the low departs northeast out of the Great Lakes, a cold
front will push east across the area Sunday night through Monday, An
arctic cold front will push across the region early Tuesday night
then high pressure will move into Ohio by Friday.


Lake effect snow bands have moved north of the snow belt counties
in NE OH and NW PA. I have ended the last lake effect snow warning
that remained in Erie PA. Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect for multiple counties for the next approaching weather
system. Widespread snow already developing in Indiana. Impressive
isentropic lift associated with the system. Timing still appears
to be good with light snow in NW OH after 10pm and North
Central/NE Ohio after midnight.

Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow bands will continue to drift northeast up the
lakeshore through the evening hours as low level flow continues to
back southwesterly in advance of the next weather system. Expecting
the more impressive looking bands to quickly move up toward Erie by
00Z, with more shore parallel/disorganized squalls lingering through
06Z. Cannot rule out a few more inches before the bands lift
northeast out of the area, with the highest amounts in Ashtabula and
Erie counties.


Focus quickly shifts to low pressure approaching the Great Lakes
region from the central Rockies late tonight through Sunday. Snow
will overspread the region from west to east after 03Z tonight
within area of broad, fairly potent isentropic ascent ahead of
the low. Should be a fairly efficient snowfall process with lift
centered in a deep saturated DGZ and moist sub cloud layer.
Generally expecting 1 to 3 inches before 12Z, with the highest
amounts west of I-71, and wouldn`t be surprised to see some higher
amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range west.

Main area of lift will skirt across the the northern half of the
area during the day Sunday. Models have varied a bit on the
placement of the heaviest precip. Have generally went with a model
compromise leaning toward the SREF. A little concern about the
recent uptick in model QPF, however after 12Z, snow ratios should be
lowering a bit as DGZ depth decreases significantly with ongoing
WAA in the lowest 15kft. Generally forecast 1 to 3 inches
widespread during the day, with 2 to 4 from Toledo to Sandusky.

WAA will continue Sunday evening to the point of p-type changes from
south to north after 5 PM. Current thinking is that much of the area
will see a mix south of I-80, with some possible periods of complete
changeover to rain after 00Z along/south of US-30 east of Upper
Sandusky. If the warm air struggle to advect further north, this
could result in higher amounts north of US-30 after 00Z tomorrow,
however for now, forecasting another inch or so for most of the
area, with 1 to 2 in the higher elevations of NW PA and far NE OH.
This results in event snowfall totals of 3 to 7 inches along/north
of the US-30 corridor, with possible higher amounts in Lucas/Wood
counties. Expanded the advisory for most areas along/north of US-30
with the exception of the counties currently in the lake effect snow
warning. Once the warning is expired for these counties, a winter
weather advisory will likely be needed.

The system/cold front will exit the area late Sunday night/early
Monday morning, with some lingering lake effect for the snow belt
areas. Not anticipating too much snowfall or accumulations given
fairly shallow inversion heights.


Temperatures will continue to average well below normal much of this
week. Colder air will move in Tuesday in the wake of a cold front
with afternoon highs remaining below freezing in most locations.
Temperatures Tuesday night will drop down into the teens and maybe
all the way to near 10 degrees in northwest Ohio. Just how cold the
temperatures get will depend on what kind of snowpack we have
around. There will be a continued chance of a few snow showers
downwind of Lake Erie much of the week, with the best chances being
Wednesday night through Thursday night. More accumulating snow will
be possible during this period. More on that once we get closer.

A 1030 mb high will move overhead on Thursday and that may clear the
western end of the area out. It will also lead to high temps 20 to
25 degrees below normal with highs struggling to make the lower
teens and lows approaching 0 degrees. Friday into the weekend looks
interesting as both the GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a strong low
up through the Great Lakes with more precipitation.


.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lake effect is gone. Next storm system pushing west to east
toward the forecast area at this time. A general snow that will
affect the entire area will spread west to east across the area
tonight and is now in the Toledo and Findlay areas and will move
east from there the rest of the night. Ceilings and visibilities
will quickly drop as the snow moves into the area. Lowest ceilings
expected to be around 700 feet late tonight into tomorrow while
visibilities will drop to around 1/2sm mile especially tomorrow
when the heaviest snow arrives. Accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches
expected during the TAF period across the area with more expected
beyond the TAF period. Air mass now appears it will remain cold
enough to support all snow so will not mention any mix of

OUTLOOK...Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow into Monday
for the entire forecast area. Lake effect snow will continue in
the snowbelt east of CLE into Tuesday.


The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 PM.
Southwesterly winds will gradually become southerly late tonight
into Sunday morning. We may need a Small Craft Advisory Sunday night
as a cold front crosses the lake. Breezy westerly winds will
continue on Monday before Monday evening as an area of high passes
to the south. Another arctic front will cross the lake on Tuesday
and more small craft headlines are possible. Strong west winds will
then continue through the end of the period, increasing further
Wednesday night into Thursday.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for OHZ012>014-
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ010-011-
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ003-
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.


NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Mottice
MARINE...Mottice is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.