Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291736
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GOOD SUNSHINE
IS IN STORE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS THEN LIKELY SOME
RAIN INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY...PROBABLY
AFTER 5 PM. INITIALLY THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO EVAPORATE SO ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED THRU THE
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES SE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NE TO MID 40S IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS FEATURE
IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT SO
QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH IS THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
MAINLY RAIN INTO THE AREA. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR
INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER FEATURES
BUT THE TIMING IS STILL VERY DIFFERENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER BY AT LEAST 12
HOURS. THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY AND OF COURSE
THE EUROPEAN DOESN`T HAVE IT BUILDING IN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES DIDN`T CHANGE THE POPS TOO MUCH EXCEPT
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. IF THE TREND CONTINUES
THAT THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

THE AIRMASS SEEMS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY SO ADDED
THAT MENTION. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY KEPT THE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEAREST PRECIP
REMAINS NEAR KORD SO IT WILL TAKE TILL EVENING BEFORE IT REACHES
NW OHIO. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CIGS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT KERI AND KYNG MOST OF THE NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP STARTS. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND IT. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

A RIDGE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO MIX DOWN. THE CONCERN IS IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT
THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALES. THE ICE COVER ON
THE LAKE SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE WINDS JUST BELOW GALES. AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE UNDER 30 KNOTS. WITH THE ICE STARTING TO
BREAK UP ON THE LAKE THIS WIND WILL MOVE SOME OF IT AROUND AND ALSO
HELP TO BREAK IT UP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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