515
FXUS61 KCLE 030518
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
118 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Thursday,
followed by building high pressure for Friday into Saturday. Another
cold front will approach the region from the west on Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
950 PM Update...
Increased PoPs slightly across the eastern lakeshore counties
and adjusted the timing to be later over the next few hours.
The showers and thunderstorms currently over Eastern Michigan
have been moving southward, though they have been weakening and
should continue trending that way.

Main concern for the near term period will be isolated showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of a NW to SE-oriented cold front
Thursday afternoon and evening, with development expected generally
along and west of the I-77 corridor. For the most part, coverage
should be limited to isolated showers and storms with dry low and
mid-levels. For today (Wednesday), main concern will be the
development of upstream showers and thunderstorms across eastern
Michigan which may eventually work their way across the central and
eastern Lake Erie basins later this evening into the overnight.

Seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs
generally in the mid-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The latest guidance favors a dry Fourth of July for the area as
upper-level ridging and high pressure build into the region.
Precipitation chances will not be 0% for Friday afternoon and
evening, particularly across Northwest Ohio, though feel comfortable
in precluding mentionable PoPs at this time (less than 15%).
Otherwise, the rest of the short term period will feature quiet
weather and a warming trend as temperatures in the upper 80s on
Friday increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The warmest day of the long term period will be Sunday with high
temperatures in the lower 90s across the board and heat indices
approaching the mid to upper 90s and perhaps briefly touching 100
degrees at times. As the low-levels begin to moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the west, precipitation chances may
begin to increase across Northwest Ohio, particularly Sunday evening
and overnight. Precipitation chances will be the highest on Monday
when scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of a cold front. Currently not outlooked for any
strong to severe storms, but could see future inclusion if trends
persist over the next few forecast iterations.

Tuesday should see a reprieve from the rainy pattern as brief high
pressure builds behind the front. However, the active pattern may
return on Wednesday as another upper-level trough will move east
through the Upper Midwest, introducing more opportunities for
afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF
period as high pressure slowly begins to build across the area.
This morning, KERI may briefly have reduced visibilities to MVFR
as a line of showers and thunderstorms pushes south off of Lake
Erie. This afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible across the western terminals as decaying storms from
upstream approach the area. The general timing is 21Z-01Z, but
given the very scattered nature expected with these storms,
opted to handle potential with PROB30. In the heaviest storms,
conditions could be reduced to MVFR with gusty winds possible.

Light and variable winds will persist through mid-morning before
becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots through the evening. After
00Z tonight, winds will once again return to light and variable.

Outlook...VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Non-
VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie for the
foreseeable future. There may be a little bit of afternoon
choppiness Wednesday through Friday with mild lake breeze
development. Southwest flow of around 10-15 knots develops on
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/23
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Saunders