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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE LOW
INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
WEST...OVERRUNNING WILL START TO OCCUR TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP.

DUE TO PRESENCE OF INVERSION...TEMPS ALOFT ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW
SO THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FZDZ MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES BUT
WHEN THE PRECIP IS A LITTLE HEAVIER IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. THUS,
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE
FREEZING PRECIP AND MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MOST OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATION OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THAT
BEING SAID WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE EAST HALF DUE TO AREAS OF FZDZ.

THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH SO EXPECT LOW TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE SW HALF TO MID 20S
IN THE INLAND NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER RUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE LOW CENTER. SO WILL START SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THE START TIME FROM THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE EAST WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO THE RAPID
BLOSSOMING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA.

ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHERE WILL THE CUTOFF LINE BE FOR
THE SNOW/NO SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
MAY ESCAPE WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL DEPENDING ON HOW
SHARP THE LINE IS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH
WITH THIS FORECAST. FOR THE SOUTH IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE I AM EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. NOW...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE INTENSITY OF
THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS OVER THE AREA...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. WILL LEAN ON
THE ADVISORY SIDE AND GO WITH THE 4 TO 6 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 7 AM TOMORROW THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE DONE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK WEST OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND THEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE...THIS THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND THEN DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING IN FOR
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME KEEPING SATURDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CAUSING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO AROUND 600-800FT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM. IN THE WEST
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING WITH SOME BREAKS AROUND 2500 FT. SOME FLURRIES
AND FZDZ BEING OBSERVED FROM CLE TO MFD AND EAST AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THE CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AFT 03Z TO PATCHY...LONGER AT ERI. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR TOL/FDY AND IN A FEW HOURS MFD.
CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MAINLY AT THE
FDY...MFD AND CAK TAFS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY
OVER NE OH AND NW PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
BE THAT STRONG. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER MOVES NEAR LAKE ERIE ON
THURSDAY...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING THAT STRONG OF WINDS AFTER THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-030>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ017-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA