Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 272313
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
713 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
THICK AREA OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO NRN OHIO FROM THE WEST SO SKIES
IN THE NORTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT. SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY RE-DEVELOP IN NW
OHIO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.

DRIER AIR AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
EAST ON FRIDAY IT WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION HOLDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.

HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S.
WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO REACH 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER REASONABLY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
BOTH SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST USES CHANCE AND LIKELY WORDING FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY POPS DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE SECOND FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS IN
PLACE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS AWAY FROM TAF SITES. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL BKN TO OVC IS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT AVIATION. OVERNIGHT AM
EXPECTING MVFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP...BREAKING AND LIFTING IN THE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT.
THURSDAY MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE HAS BEEN FAIRLY FLAT TODAY WITH A CALM NORTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. GENERALLY WAVES WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER 3
FEET IN THE OPEN LAKE DESPITE THIS PREFERENTIAL FETCH. THE WIND
WILL PROGRESSIVELY VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. OF COURSE WIND AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LESS
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS





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