Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261605
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1205 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the New England States will continue to move
eastward through the day. This will allow low pressure over the
Central Plains to move toward the region on Thursday. As the
low moves across southern Ohio Thursday evening it will drag a
cold front across the area. High pressure will spread southeast
into the area by Friday night and linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...No changes.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure was located over the New England states early
this morning and is expected to continue moving to the east.
This will allow low pressure over the Central Plains to move
toward the region on Thursday. Until the low arrives expect to
see light winds with a gradual increase of high level cloud
cover. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight with rain beginning
to spread into NW Ohio by mid morning on Thursday. Still some
uncertainty on how much thunder there will be Thursday afternoon
as cloud cover helps to limit the instability. However it
should be unstable enough for at least scattered thunder to
develop.

Temperatures today will be near seasonal levels with a lake
breeze developing. So slightly cooler along the lakeshore.
Increasing moisture levels ahead of the cold front and an
increase in cloud cover should allow for warmer temperatures
tonight with lows in the 60s. Cloud cover combined with the
showers/thunderstorms will limit highs for most locations on
Thursday. Highs will range from the mid 70s south to around 80
degrees across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The same pattern continues as the next upper s/w will drop se across
the cwa late Fri and Fri night with the models starting to differ as
to whether the upper low will try and cut off over WV or not Fri
night. Will maintain good chc pops Thu night and Fri then allow a
small chc to linger over the se half of the cwa Fri night for the
possibility of the upper low to try and stall. Likewise, there could
be enough support from the upper trough in the east for an isolated
shra to occur on Sat. High pressure builds in for Sat night to
result in dry conditions.

High temps look to run about 5 degrees below normal Fri and Sat as
winds come out of the north to northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large area of high pressure should try and dominate the region Sun
and Mon then the models are hinting at a cold front dropping
southeast into the area on Tue. Will keep the forecast dry until Tue
then ramp up to chc pops Tue. Temps should moderate back close to
normal for Mon and Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Patchy fog across inland locations has developed but it has
remained away from TAF sites. At this point it appears we will
be able to keep the mention out of the TAF`s. Other than a few
cumulus across inland locations this afternoon there will be a
gradual increase in high level cloud cover.

Winds will be light and variable through mid morning then
become southerly for inland locations. Speeds this afternoon
will be under 6 knots. The exception will be along the lakeshore
with an onshore west to northwest wind developing by early
afternoon. This will only impact KERI and KCLE TAF sites. Speeds
may touch 10 knots for a few hours during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in thunderstorms that develop near and ahead
of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Non-VFR due to low
clouds through Friday and possibly into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light south then southwest winds will probably become variable for a
while Thu into early Thu night until a low tracks east into Southern
Ohio. This will cause winds to turn out of the NE and increase to 15
to 25 knots later Thu night and Fri before backing to north on Sat
and diminishing into Sat night as high pressure builds in from the
west. High pressure over the lake Sun will keep winds light.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Adams


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