Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201110
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
610 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Tennessee River Valley will move off the
mid Atlantic Coast tonight. On Tuesday low pressure is expected
to move across Ontario. This will cause a cold front to move
across the region during Tuesday evening. High pressure will
then take control of  the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Added a few flurries to extreme NE OH into NW PA through mid
morning then dissipating with the cloud cover. Only other
changes were to the hourly temperature and cloud cover grids to
reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure continues to ridge into the area from the
Tennessee River Valley this morning bringing dry air with it.
However there is one last piece of jet energy moving overhead.
This should continue to produce some flurries, maybe a few brief
heavier snow showers across Ashtabula, Erie and Crawford
Counties through mid morning. Otherwise the area of high
pressure will take control with increasing southwest to south
winds expected through the day. It will be warmer today with a
decent period of sunshine at most locations. Winds will continue
to increase with the stronger warm advection tonight into
Tuesday. As a cold front moves closer on Tuesday the chances of
rain will increase. Not all that much moisture to lift ahead of
the front but it should be able to pick up moisture off of the
lake as it crosses. So the better chances late Tuesday afternoon
into the evening will be across NE OH into NW PA.

It will be warmer today with highs into the 40s at most
locations. The exception will be across NW PA where there was
some light snow accumulations. Upper 40s to lower 50s will be
common on Tuesday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving through the forecast area at the start
of the short term. This will bring precipitation in the form of rain
early Tuesday night before a transition to snow occurs late Tuesday
night across the eastern half of the area. By early Wednesday
morning it will be all snow across far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania, but it will quickly come to an end by late Wednesday
morning or early Wednesday afternoon as high pressure moves in from
the southwest. Little in the way of any snow accumulation is
expected.

High pressure will be in control from Wednesday afternoon through
Thanksgiving Day with dry weather and some sunshine. A weak front
approaches the northeastern part of the forecast area Thursday
night, but it should wash out by the time it gets here, so chances
are everyone will stay dry. There could perhaps be a few sprinkles
across northwest Pennsylvania.

High temperatures will be in the middle 30s Wednesday and the upper
30s to near 40 for Thanksgiving Day. Low temperatures throughout the
short term will be in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will nudge north into the area Friday,
bringing dry weather to the area. A cold front will move in from the
northwest late Friday night into Saturday bringing rain showers to
everyone. As the colder air filters in behind the front the rain
showers should transition to a rain/snow mix and then eventually all
snow by Saturday night. The snow will generally be confined to the
eastern half of the forecast area as northwest winds kick off some
lake-effect snow showers. Areas in the primary snowbelt will
continue to see some lake-effect snow into Monday morning before
high pressure finally moves in from the southwest, bringing an end
to the lake-effect.

Temperatures will be in the middle 40s Friday and near 50 by
Saturday prior to the cold front passage. Highs will then be in the
middle 30s for the remainder of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A few flurries or a brief snow shower may occur across NW PA
through mid morning. If there are any MVFR conditions it will be
with the light snow that falls. Otherwise high pressure will
increase its influence through the day with plenty of low level
dry air. The remaining lower level cloud cover should thin and
eventually dissipate by late afternoon at all locations.

Southwest winds are expected at all locations today. Strongest
near KERI with gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds will shift
closer to a southerly direction at several sites this evening
with some gusts possible. If skies remain clear tonight
allowing winds to decouple slightly there is a possibility of
some low level wind shear.

OUTLOOK...A period of Non-VFR possible Tuesday evening into the
overnight in showers. The Non-VFR conditions will likely linger
across NE OH/NW PA into Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds have died down on the Western Basin, but will continue to
be sustained around 20 to 25 knots out of the west elsewhere through
this morning before turning out of the southwest by this afternoon.
Southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots will continue across the eastern
two-thirds of the lake through Tuesday before a cold front swings
through Tuesday night, turning the winds out of the northwest. Winds
may be a bit lighter as they turn to the northwest, but waves will
be on the increase. The Small Craft Advisory runs through Wednesday
afternoon. It won`t be until Wednesday evening when the winds
finally die down thanks to high pressure moving over the lake. Winds
will begin to increase again Thursday out of a more westerly
direction. It is possible another Small Craft Advisory will be
needed on the east end of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mottice


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