Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 242243
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and
shift east Tuesday.  This will allow low pressure to track across
the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area Wednesday
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Same ole same ole. Strong upper ridge remains anchored over the
forecast area. Expect clear skies with temps from the upper 50s
into the lower 60s. Could see a little patchy morning fog.

With this early evening update, modeled tonight`s lows after
last nights but warming them a degree or two and took a look at
the potential for a few more clouds Monday. Boundary layer
moisture increases and we should be able to see some scattered
cumulus development.

See climate section below for Sunday`s highs and the records for
the next two days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models remain in good agreement with the strong upper ridge over the
forecast area through the early part of the work week.  Dry
conditions and well above normal temps continue.

Not many changes to the short term again today.  Tuesday will be
dry...sunny and warm as high pressure lingers over the region.  See
no reason why temps won`t reach 90 degrees yet again over much of
the area.  The cold front is still on track for Wednesday.  The
model are not very excited about the potential for precip.  This
seems reasonable given how dry the airmass will be.  For the second
day in a row will trim precip chances back and go with no more than
20ish pops in the east.  Will also keep Wedneday night and Thursday
night dry even with decent cold air advection ongoing.  It should
just be too dry for showers to develop.  Given the airmass change
have stayed fairly close to guidance for temps on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some disagreement on the timing of the front on Friday but a it
looks to be a relatively strong cold front associated with a sharp
short wave progged to dive south across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures could sneak up ahead of the front on Friday, perhaps
pushing 70 in some areas, but much cooler air will follow Friday
night into Saturday. Moisture will be limited with the system with
the best chance for lake enhanced showers in the snowbelt. The lake
effect showers will probably linger into Saturday in the snowbelt as
850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between 3-5C. The models
are trending to a short lived trough as heights are progged to begin
rising on Sunday. High temperatures may struggle to get much above
60 on Saturday but recover toward normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions with clear skies will continue rest of today as
high pressure remains anchored over forecast area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog Monday and
Tuesday morning. Non- VFR possible Wednesday evening/Thursday
in -shra/-tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will
usher in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the
lake.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place into
early Wednesday with quiet weather continuing on the lake. Winds
will remain variable under 10 knots the next couple of days.  Winds
will become onshore in the nearshore waters each day.  A cold front
will push southeast of the lake on Wednesday with winds quickly
becoming northerly.  There is a brief window for close to small
craft conditions late Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Another front
will cross the lake on Friday and small craft conditions appear
likely at that time.  Winds Thursday and Friday will be north to
northwest.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Highs for Sunday were:

AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 92 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE
RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 24 LAST SET ON THIS DATE IN 1908.

CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES. THIS SETS A NEW
RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 24. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 90 DEGREES
SET ON THIS DATE IN 2010.

MANSFIELD LAHM REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 89 DEGREES. THIS TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 24 LAST SET ON THIS DATE IN 2010
AND 1934.

TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPORT REACHED 92 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD
HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 24 LAST SET ON THIS DATE IN 1891.

YOUNGSTOWN-WARREN REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 91 DEGREES. THIS
TIES THE RECORD HIGH FOR SEPTEMBER 24 LAST SET ON THIS DATE IN
1936.

Upcoming records for the next 2 days  25TH/26TH:

TOL 91/1891 92/1998

CAK 92/1908 89/1900

MFD 88/2007 87/1998

CLE 88/2007 91/1998

ERI 89/1933 89/1998

YNG 91/2007 89/1934

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kubina
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kubina
CLIMATE...Oudeman


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