Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271100
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure located near the north shore of Lake Superior will
drift south across the central Great Lakes toward Ohio through
Wednesday. The low will wobble toward the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Thursday then retro-grade west to Ohio again for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes have been made to hourly temperatures to
reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure near the north shore of Lake Superior will slowly
drift southward through the day. This will leave the region in the
middle of the dry slot. So expect to see a mostly sunny day and
dry conditions. The only exception will be near Erie. This area
will likely have some lake induced cloud cover for at least part
of the morning hours. Best convergence will remain over the lake
with any showers/thunderstorms directed toward western NY State.

Expect deep mixing today with southwesterly winds becoming breezy
to windy. Gusts around 35 mph will be common for the afternoon.
The deep mixing and dry air will allow for slightly warmer
temperatures today. Highs should be near to slightly above
seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low will drift into the central Great Lakes tonight but
it appears we will be able to hold off any mention of showers
until near or shortly after sunrise. It then looks like an
extended period of scattered to numerous showers. Since lapse
rates may become a bit steeper under the area of low pressure the
potential for some thunder will exist. For now have only gone with
an isolated thunder mention in the grids. Better chances of
thunder may not occur until we get better flow off of Lake Erie
late Thursday into Friday.

Models continue to indicate moisture flowing off of the Atlantic
Thursday into Friday. We will need to monitor this but models tend
to bring this better moisture too far west of the Appalachians.

It will be a cool week with the showers and cloud cover. Highs
will remain in the 60s. Lows each night will be tricky. If any
clearing occurs lows will dip well into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the extended. Upper level low still drifting
across the upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. The ECMWF and GFS
are coming into better agreement. Models have the surface
reflection of the low in Central Indiana on daybreak Saturday. The
low drifts across The Central Lake...finally drifting east of the
forecast area by Monday. Will continue with scattered showers into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the day. The SW winds will
increase with gusts of 25 to 30 knots by late morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times between
Wednesday and Saturday with upper low and showers lingering across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory will continue into tomorrow. Winds weaken
Wednesday as a surface low drops south across the lake. The low
will stall across the Ohio valley setting up a NE flow over the
lake. A small craft advisory will likely be needed by the end of
the work week as gradient strengthens and the NE flow increases to
15 to 25 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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