Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 271303
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
903 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES WILL WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER THE LAKES FOR SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED CLOUDS FOR 930 UPDATE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED ALONG
THE ERIE LAKESHORE...WILL BE LATE MORNING BEFORE REST OF CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TODAY. DRIER AIR BEING PUSHED SW AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL WORK TO DECREASE CLOUDS FROM NE TO SW THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SW FROM
MID AFTERNOON ON BUT RAIN SHOULD STAY SW OF THE AREA THRU
NIGHTFALL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE SW
BY EVENING.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE SOUTH BUT COOLER THAN
NORMAL IN THE NORTH AS THE NE WIND COMES IN OFF THE CHILLY LAKE.
HIGHS RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU THRU FRI WITH
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS AND QPF...WILL
SPEED UP THE NE SPREAD OF THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THU AND SHOW AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT. RIGHT NOW NOT SEEING
ENOUGH QPF FOR FLOODING BUT SITUATION COULD CHANGE IF CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAIN LINES UP AND TRAINS OVER AN AREA.

TEMPS THRU FRI NIGHT WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF A DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ENERGY SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
START TO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE TRACK OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z/27 RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND TRIES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE THIS SOLUTION
OUT...IT IS A SOUTHERN SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MUCH SLOWER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. KEPT 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
TO SEE IF THE LATEST GFS GAINS SUPPORT. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SAT-MON A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS IS CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 14-15Z.
CLOUDS WILL START TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN SITES AS EARLY AS 04Z THEN
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT TOL/FDY/CLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AT TIMES THUR THROUGH FRI...RETURNING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE TODAY BUT
MAY BRIEFLY SURPASS 15 KNOTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST AND
DROPPING OFF.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.