Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A large area of high pressure will expand east across the area today
then set up over the southern Appalachians for the remainder of the
week. An upper level ridge will strengthen aloft heading into next
weekend with another round of above normal temperatures.


Lake effect clouds starting off this morning from north central Ohio
east into Pennsylvania. Lake effect rain showers also extend
from Lake Huron and are focused from near Madison to Warren.
The cloud field has been thinning north of Lake Erie and this
band is starting to break up and wobble more. Will continue with
a chance of showers in extreme northeast Ohio this morning
before low level flow starts to back and we lose the connection.
Clouds field shifts eastward through the day with upstream
clouds from Lake Michigan moving into western Ohio while clouds
off Lake Erie become focused across the eastern areas.
Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler and will not make
it out of the 50s. 850mb temperatures are down to around
-1C this morning and eastern areas may only warm about 5 degrees
today as we remain under the influence of cool northwest flow.

High pressure centered over the Plains will expand eastward
across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. Winds will be nearly
calm across eastern areas tonight and frost is likely inland
from Lake Erie. A Frost Advisory will likely be needed for much
of the eastern half of the area tonight. Despite a cool start on
Tuesday morning, temperatures will rebound to near seasonal
normals with full sun.


High pressure over the Virginia`s should still dominate the wx for
the area and keep conditions dry. There is a weak upper level s/w
trough moving across the region late Wed and Wed night with a
dissipating cold front approaching Lake Erie from the NW by the end
of Wed night. However, the airmass appears too dry for any precip to
be triggered by the trough or front.

Temps will show a slight moderation of a few degrees.


The high will spread NW back over the area for Fri and should
dominate into Sun. Another cold front is progged to be moving east
near NW OH by Sun eve with decent moisture so will continue to ramp
up chc pops late Sun into Sun night.

Temps will continue to show a slow warming trend during the period
with highs back into the low to mid 70s by the weekend.

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Lake effect clouds remain from central Ohio into Pennsylvania
with most sites VFR with ceilings near 3500 feet. Pockets of
MVFR are possible through 13Z with YNG the most likely to
encounter these. Lake effect showers extend from Lake Huron and
may also briefly impact YNG. Otherwise clouds will gradually
clear from the west through midday on Monday while clouds off
lake Michigan spread back into TOL/FDY. Northwest winds will be
breezy overnight, mainly near Lake Erie then decrease on Monday
afternoon as high pressure expands overhead. Winds will become
light and variable Monday evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations Tuesday
through Thursday.


High pressure spreading east into OH will cause the NW winds on the
lake to continue to gradually diminish from west to east today. Will
stay with plan to allow rest of SCA to end by 10 am but it may need
to be extended a few hours more.

The high will settle SE over the OH valley by Tue which will lead to
SW winds that may be just strong enough for marginal SCA conditions
to occur at the offshore edge of the 5 NM nearshore area Tue into
Tue night. Winds should turn a little more toward the south for Wed
then may pick up again from the SW Wed night into Thu as a weakening
cold front pushes east into the lake.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for


MARINE...Adams is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.