Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 281738
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
138 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley region
today and tonight. Weak waves of low pressure will move east
across the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. The low pressure
system will finally move east of the area Sunday allowing high
pressure to build in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. The
high will then move southeast of the area by Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cloud cover is fairly extensive this morning. First wave and it`s
associated precip across southeast Ohio has moved into PA. Another
wave is expected this afternoon. So far southeast tier of counties
may still have a shower/thunderstorm this afternoon. Across the
rest of the area...have pulled back on the precip chances with all
of the cloud cover...but cannot rule it out. There may be an
outflow from the Holmes storms from earlier to work with. Highs
in the lower/mid 80s look to be on target. Midday update is out.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow over the forecast area today will give way to
broad troughiness by the end of the week. The persistent
troughiness will result in a series of low pressure systems that
will move east across the Ohio Valley region. This trend will keep
a threat for inclement weather going through much of this forecast
All of the computer models support a threat for some type of
shower and thunderstorm activity just about each day as the series
of low pressures move slowly through the area. Eventually, the
final wave of low pressure will push east to the eastern seaboard
by Sunday allowing high pressure to begin building into the
The storm prediction center has the forecast area outlooked for at
least general thunderstorms through the early part of the forecast
Some slightly cooler air will begin to nudge south into the
forecast area by the weekend with the high pressure. Highs will be
in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s toward the weekend.
Tweaks were made to the forecast for tonight and Friday with this
mid morning update...but above reasoning still holds.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and drier air will expand south over the area on
Monday as the upper level trough shifts to our east. Could still see
a healthy cu deck develop in the east with lingering moisture but
overall subsidence should be on the increase and chances of an
isolated thunderstorm should be confined to areas from Youngstown
northeast into Pennsylvania. Near seasonal temperatures expected on
Monday before trending warmer through the middle of next week. The
upper level ridge is progged to expand eastward across the Southern
Great Lakes Region but long range models are struggling to resolve
energy moving around the ridge. A low 20-30 percent pop returns to
the forecast from Tuesday night on as moisture pushes back north.
Little confidence in timing any convection that may develop overhead
or move into the area from upstream at this time. Mid-levels will
be warm and will act as a limiting factor.
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Weak area of low pressure will cut the forecast area in half as it
moves from west to east this afternoon/tonight. The rain shield to
our south could clip MFD and more likely YNG this afternoon which
could bring some showers. CAK is expected to have a few showers
this afternoon due to an area of weak convergence. Not expecting
thunder at this time as the cloud deck around 20k feet is helping
to reduce the instability over the region. Moist airmass with dew
points in the upper 60s will linger overnight which when combined
with calm winds could lead to fog development. Cloud cover could
limit the extend of the fog but have mentioned around 2-4SM at
most of the terminals.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Friday through
Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.
Generally good marine conditions expected into next week. Lake
breezes will develop again today with onshore flow. A weak cold
front will move south across Lake Erie this evening with north to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots continuing into Friday. This will
result in waves increasing to the 1 to 3 foot range. Light northeast
flow will continue through the weekend as an area of high pressure
sets up north of Lake Erie and a weak area of low pressure moves
through the Ohio Valley. The high will expand south over the
lake on Monday and Tuesday.