Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 172041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST GETTING STRUNG OUT A BIT AS
IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CAUSE A FLARE UP IN
THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND THE OBSERVED UPSTREAM DATA...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRACK
RIGHT NEAR ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF WE GET AN
ORGANIZED BAND/BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE TROUGH/SHORT WAVE. IF NOT...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
MULTI BAND AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SNOWBELT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE
INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S...
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN AVIATION PROBLEM
WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING ANY RELIEF FROM THE LOW
CEILINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FEET MOST OF THE TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT TIMES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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