Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010817
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OHIO. LEFT A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO
BE DENSE WITH 4-7 KNOTS OF WIND. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT TODAY AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST BY A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY...RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 80S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES AGAIN.

THE FORECAST AREA IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TO NW OHIO WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING BENEATH 700MB. WILL CARRY A LOW
POP IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AS A CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY HIGHER POPS TOWARDS NW OHIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED NW OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WINDS BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NW OHIO DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE PRETTY GOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS OVERHEAD.   HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO WHERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT
INSTEAD OF GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA WITH STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR KERI SW ACROSS KYNG AND KCAK WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO THE WEST. EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP WEST
HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE THINNING. COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE VCTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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