Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1016 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A warm front near Lake Erie today will lift north of the lake
Sunday and Monday. A cold front will drop across the area on


General synoptic warm advection ascent ongoing with good
convergence in the boundary layer producing moderate to heavy
snow from near Erie, PA across northeast Erie County, PA. This
will continue until the weak cold front sags south across the
lake mid to late afternoon. The snow will probably sag back
south mid to late afternoon as the convergence expands for a
short while, then the snow band will likely dissipate as the
shear rapidly increases late today and early tonight.

Will continue with a forecast of 3 to 6 inches Today in Erie
County with amounts tapering down across the rest of the
snowbelt and little or no additional accumulation from late
morning on south of Ashtabula County and Crawford County PA.

Will keep headlines for snow warning and advisories going until
late today.

Elsewhere, temperatures were running ahead of the forecast as
the south wind continues in the warm sector. Some sunshine will
develop across the western and southern counties for a while
early this afternoon and high temps will tickle 40F. The clouds
may try to sag back south late this afternoon but not sure how
far they will make it.

Weak high pressure over the area tonight into early Sunday should
keep things quiet for a while. A weak upper trough will race ENE
into the cwa Sunday. Temps at the surface and aloft should warm
just enough for mostly rain to be the threat as light precip
tries to spread NE across the cwa from noon thru the rest of the

Highs today will be warmer due to the warm advection with highs
generally from around 30 in the far NE to near 40 in the far SW.
Lows tonight should be in the 20s then highs on Sunday will be a
few degrees warmer for the ne half of the area, with mid to
upper 30s being more common.


The short term forecast begins on Sunday night with a weak low
pressure system just off to the northwest with a front draped over
the area. This front will move off to the northeast on Monday as a
warm front and will allow for temperatures to be well above normal
for a couple days. Several pieces of energy with this low pressure
system and the influx of additional moisture from the south will
allow for rain chances for much of the short term period... although
the best chances will be Sunday night with the warm front.

The other best chance for precipitation will be with the cold front
that will move across the area during the latter half of Tuesday.
Rain will change over to snow as temperatures drop back down below
freezing. The winds will shift around to the west and allow for lake-
effect conditions in the snow belt region, however, at this point,
there may be some residual warm air aloft with 850mb temps around 0C
that may prevent the lake-effect machine from getting too out of
hand on Tuesday night.


The long term begins on Wednesday with a cold front to east and
westerly winds allowing for a lake-effect setup over the snow belt
region. High pressure building to the south on Wednesday will allow
for winds to shift around to the southwest and then to the south by
Wednesday night to shut off the lake-effect machine and have a dry
forecast for much of Thursday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
develops off to the west waiting to move in for Friday and Saturday.
The southerly winds on Thursday will usher in some warmer air and
allow for temperatures to go back into the 40s. The initial
precipitation type with the low pressure system on Friday will be
rain with the warmer air will remaining in place. Cold air wrapping
behind the system will allow for rain to chance over to snow on
Friday night into Saturday, as temperatures go back below freezing.
Westerly flow over Lake Erie will allow for lake-effect to set up
over the snow belt for Saturday.


.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Expecting mostly VFR to prevail thru 06z Sat night except in the
core snowbelt where a band of warm advection snow will produce a mix
of mostly MVFR/IFR conditions in periods of snow. Skies will become
partly cloudy from southwest to northeast thru 20z. Cigs and VSBY`s
at ERI will improve late today into this evening as the snow tapers
off but may not improve above MVFR tonight.

Probably will see some fog develop later tonight for all but the
snowbelt where more clouds will try and hang around and keep the fog
from trying to form.

W to SW surface winds will gradually diminish through early
afternoon and will actually become light and variable by this

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR also
possible in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.


Westerly flow that has set up over Lake Erie will continue for the
first half of today with winds 10 to 20 knots eventually decreasing
to 10 knots or less later this afternoon. High pressure off to the
north will allow winds to shift around to the north and then
northeast for overnight period and light and variable winds will be
expected for Sunday. Low pressure moving northwest of the area on
Monday will allow for the flow to switch around to the southwest and
increase to 10 to 20 knots. As the low moves off to the northeast
and a cold front approaches the area winds will increase to 25 knots
and winds will shift slightly to the west, allowing for likely small
craft advisory conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure
building to the south on Thursday will ease the winds over the lake
and shift winds around to the south for the end of the week.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for


NEAR TERM...Adams/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.