Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 232338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
638 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will finish crossing the area this evening, but
will stall across the Ohio River. A panhandle low will develop
and track across the central Great Lakes bringing a warm front
north late Saturday and finally sweeping a cold front across
the entire region late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. High
pressure will move overhead for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rainfall today ended up being slightly less than thought going
into today and that is good news as we head into the weekend and
the next significant round of rainfall. A few sprinkles or a
brief light rain possible early this evening, but overall a
quiet night. There is fog out over the lake as indicated by a
web cam and observation earlier out of Port Clinton. There is
some concern that this fog will push inland across the east
lakeshore and/or hug the coastline this evening. Have added the
mention of fog primarily for Erie PA.

By early Saturday morning winds will be coming around the dial
and will have a north-northeast wind for much of the day. This
will impact temperatures near the lakeshore, especially across
the west half. We will have to wait much of the day for the warm
front to push north. The warmest temperatures of the day across
the area will occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Tightened the gradient for the precip chances during the
daytime Saturday, keeping only a slight chance/chance across the
far north. The wave along the front is minor with a more west
to east track/influence. The bigger concern will arrive for
Saturday night.

Held off on any flood watch. Will allow another model run suite
to occur and also try and get a better handle on the convective
nature the precip will likely take on Saturday night. Right now
as it stands, flash flood guidance suggest we can only take
about 1.2 inches of rain in 6 hours to start to cause troubles.
Minor river flooding will be possible too with similar amounts.
Have added the mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for
Saturday night.

After numerous shortwaves working to break down the high across
the Atlantic/SE U.S., this wave Saturday night will fortunately
be the one to finally push a cold front through and out of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A strong cold front will wrap in from the west on Sunday with
precipitation quickly ending from west to east. In advance of
the front, downsloping southerly winds may be strong in Erie, PA
with gusts of 35-45 mph possible. Then as the front moves
through, some of the stronger winds aloft may try to mix down,
especially in northwest Ohio. The mixing depth will increase
with downward momentum bringing stronger gusts down to the
surface. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph
will be possible for a few hours. High temperatures on Sunday
will occur in the morning with temperatures falling behind the
front into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Skies are expected to clear by Sunday afternoon which raises a
question about fog developing Sunday night. The ground will be very
moist following the recent rainfall and winds will be light as high
pressure builds up the Ohio Valley. Not enough confidence to include
fog in the forecast but will need to be considered over the weekend.

Temperatures remain above normal as the high builds to the east and
southerly return flow develops. Dry conditions expected through mid-
week which will help rivers and high water to recede from the
weekend rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models in good agreement Tuesday night, with high pressure centered
off the Mid Atlantic Coast and a ridge across the Eastern Great
Lakes.   After that the trend is continued wet and warm,  but models
definitely out of phase with the upcoming systems.   GFS moves the
next system through late Wednesday into Wednesday night, while the
ECMWF on the other hand is almost a day behind, moving the system
through Wednesday night into Thursday.  Previous forecast similar to
ECMWF timing so I see no reason to flip flop forecast this far out
when so much doubt as to the timing.   Both models hint at a return
of more seasonal conditions by the end of the forecast period. Deep
upper low tracks SE across the Lakes with the 850mb temps dipping to
-7c by 12z Saturday. We will see.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Conditions continue to improve from west to east with light rain
and IFR cigs now confined to the very east end of the area.
Expect both YNG and ERI to become MVFR the next couple of hours.
Although there will be some pockets of VFR cigs floating around
most of the area should remain MVFR through 06z. Rain is still
expected to move over the southern end of the area around
daybreak with IFR cigs returning shortly after the rain
arrives. Westerly winds will become light north and then
northeast Saturday morning. Suspect there is some fog over the
lake given the high dewpoints and will have to watch to make
sure fog doesn`t develop at TOL...CLE and ERI which are closest
to the lake. By this time Saturday rain should be over just
about the entire area with widespread IFR conditions.


OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday, more widespread non-VFR
Saturday night. Non-VFR again Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Some open water is starting to develop along the south shore of Lake
Erie. Ice floes may be possible over the weekend as winds increase.
Winds will develop out of the east at 15-25 knots on Saturday
afternoon and night as low pressure tracks from the Plains to the
Midwest. The front will bring a wind shift to the southwest with
winds increasing to 20-30 knots Sunday morning. Winds will drop off
quickly from Sunday night into Monday as high pressure expands into
the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...KEC



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