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000
FXUS61 KCLE 110121
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
921 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PC OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WHICH IS NEAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN QUICKLY. MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE THIS IN THE GRAPHICS
BUT WILL NOT BE IN THE TEXT FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
CLOSE BUT THE ECMWF IS COLDEST TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING AS ALL RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE THE CHANGE. TRANSITION WILL TAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER AS MODELS REALLY JUST SHOW NWRN AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN FRINGE OF COUNTIES CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR WILL COME IN QUICKLY
CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...WILL MAINTAIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE GRAPHICS AND TEXT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HANG
ONTO LIKELY POPS SNOW BELT WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL DROP AS
MOISTURE EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY
BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH A SHORT LIVED ARCTIC INTRUSION ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. NORMALLY IN THIS PATTERN IN MID MARCH I
WOULD FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT WE WILL
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT SO WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 WITH A VARYING AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
PROBABLY AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ACTUALLY IT
MAY JUST BE A TROUGH...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...V
EVENTUALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATER.

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THOUGH AS ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT. NOT SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA RELATIVELY
QUICKLY OR TURN INTO A SNOW STORM. UNFORTUNATELY IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
WE WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS SO EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE A COLD SAINT PATRICKS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GUSTY WINDS DECREASED QUICKLY AT DARK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THROUGH 03Z THAT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
OCCUR...HOWEVER...THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO DECREASING. NO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD FORM OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST CHANCE AT THE TAF SITES
WOULD BE TOL AND FDY WHERE THEY HAD SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
SOME OF THE SNOW MELTED...MAKING THE AIR ESPECIALLY MOIST.

OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING AND
THICKENING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON A LAKE BREEZE/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN
AND SHIFT THE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE TO ONSHORE. WITH DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING GOING OVER THE LAKE SOME FOG HAS FORMED ON THE LAKE
AND WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT THE FOG AND OR SOME STRATUS WILL ROLL IN.
SOME OF THIS COULD BE IFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT. NON
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY...PROBABLY IN THE MORNING. THE WIND WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. A PANHANDLE HOOK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ON LAKE ERIE ALWAYS GETS STRONGER
THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH THESE LOWS AND WE SHOULD APPROACH GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
FAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BY THURSDAY... IT WILL RETREAT ON FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ010>014-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ020>023-029>031.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ027-028-036-037.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK