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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE UP
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
POP VALUES OVER NORTHWEST PA. EXPECTED SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST
OVER NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY INCREASE OVER
ERIE COUNTY NEAR THE TOWN OF NORTHEAST AS THE LAKE ONTARIO AND
ERIE SNOW BANDS MERGE AND SAG SOUTHWARD. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
HAS DECREASED AS THE INVERSION HEIGHT HAS LOWERED. WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. A MAX AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
PLACES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING THE LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH TODAY. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE UP A LITTLE WITH THE NEW 00Z RUNS WITH MUCH OF AREA NOW
PROGGED TO GET AROUND 0.50 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. WITH SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS DIPPING TO AROUND 10 TO 1 ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOST OF
THE AREA TO GET BETWEEN 5 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE EARLIER THINKING OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL START THE HEADLINE A
LITTLE SOONER THERE. BY 06Z SUNDAY MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE.
THE SCENARIO THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR GOOD SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GULF SHOULD OPEN AND EXPECTING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING FOR A
FEW HOURS. SOME BANDING IS LIKELY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS UNDER THIS
PREFERRED AREA COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. UNFORTUNATELY
RIGHT NOW IT IS TOUGH TO TELL WHERE AND IF THIS WILL OCCUR. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A ROW OF COUNTIES TO A WARNING AT SOME
POINT. OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN END OF OUR AREA SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO THE TRANSITION ZONE. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET FALLING ON TOP OF SNOW IN THE MILLERSBURG...CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN AREAS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL SNOW BUT THIS
TOO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ACCUMS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR MORE HEADLINES. AFTER GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING ON
SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN PLUMMET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
NUMBERS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPS WILL START OFF COLD ON MON AS THE LAST PUSH OF THE LATEST
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...FROM TUE
ON...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE. WEAK FRONTS MOVING THRU THE
AREA WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHSN GOING MON AND TUE BUT BY WED HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING UP THE OH VALLEY MAY BE ABLE TO END THE SHSN BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE GOING SINCE WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND
DECENT DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.

THE MODELS DIFFER SO MUCH BY THU ITS ANYBODY`S GUESS AS TO WHAT MAY
BE HAPPENING ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL IT APPEARS A LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AREA AND HEADING NE TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS TENDING TO KEEP PRECIP WEST OF
AREA ON THU SO FORECAST OF STARTING CHANCE POPS BY THU NIGHT SEEMS A
REASONABLE WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL REMAIN AT ERI INTO THIS EVENING
SO EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THERE. CLE AND YNG MAY SEE SOME
OF THE LAKE EFFECT CU/STRATOCU AT TIMES THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NE FOR THIS EVENING...MORE OF THE STRATOCU MAY DRIFT OVER THESE
SITES BUT SHOULD RUN AT HIGH END MVFR LEVELS AT WORST.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF TX AND HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY
SAT MORNING. THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE WILL
START TO TAKE PLACE THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE SNOW
POSSIBLE AROUND FDY BY 06Z. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE AND SHOULD BE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES BY
12Z. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE FOR AT LEAST THE SW HALF
OF THE AREA SO EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP BELOW 2SM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AND POSSIBLY TO 3/4 TO 1/2SM AT FDY...MFD AND MAYBE TOL.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. NON VFR WILL LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO ALLOW SCA ON
WEST PART OF THE LAKE TO END BY 15Z WHILE EAST WILL NEED TO RUN
UNTIL 21Z. LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO NEAR ERI BY LATE SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY SUN. THIS CREATES
DEVELOPING NE WIND SCENARIO ON THE LAKE BUT STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER WAVES STAY NORTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO MAY NOT NEED A
SCA FOR THIS ON SAT. SAT NIGHT WINDS BACK TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS SO SCA WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS WILL THEN WAVER BACK AND
FORTH MAINLY FROM A SW DIRECTION THRU TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO PERSIST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS