Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 032321
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
621 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday. Sunday
night a disturbance aloft will move across the Great Lakes as a
surface trough moves through. High pressure will build back in
for Monday. Another storm system will bring rain for late monday
night and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Radar shows light rain/snow showers developing across the
northeast Ohio snowbelt counties this afternoon as low level
winds back to a more westerly direction. Expect a light mix into
evening...turning to mostly snow by mid evening before dissipating
asflow drop off. Expecting no accumulation. Otherwise while we
could get a break up of some of the lower clouds west...high level
moisture is filling in fast out of the lower mississippi valley so
will go with cloudy skies overnight. Lows mid 20s to near 30.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A couple of systems will affect the area through the short term.
The first comes Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models in
decent agreement showing an upper trough to our west moving toward
the area through the day as deep moisture continues to stream
north into the area. Low levels show decent isentropic lift into
the area...best from afternoon into early evening. Believe we can
get through the morning dry most places. Will have pops increase
to likely far west with chance pops from Lorain county south by
late afternoon. Slight chance further east. Through the evening
will move the likely pop east across the area. High pressure
begins building in from the west quickly after midnight. Models
dry the area out from the west after midnight as well so will have
no pops west. Further east will drop to chance highest in the
snowbelt. Airmass not all that cold so will hold onto a few lake
effect snow showers into Monday morning but dry it out for the
afternoon. The second system moves into the area. Late Monday
night through Tuesday. Models quite different on timing and track
with the GFS and ECMWF area slower and further east while the NAM
and SFEF is faster and more west. Did bring categorical pops for
Tuesday starting with a chance pop after midnight Monday night
south. Most precip should be rain. Precip will taper off Tuesday
night from the west. Highs 40 to 45. Lows around 30.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The doors will be wide open for cold air to spill into the region
for the long term. A deep trough will be across the eastern half of
the U.S...with the flow only becoming zonal toward Friday/Saturday.
The coldest temperatures of the season thus far will be upon
us...with overnight lows in the teens Thursday and Friday nights
away from the lake. Cloud cover off of the lake may keep far
northeast OH/nw PA closer to 20 for overnight temps. Highs by Friday
will struggle to get into the upper 20s. Wednesday night as the
trough axis and upper support approaches we may have light snowfall
across the area. Otherwise precipitation for Thursday...Friday and
Saturday would be of the lake effect variety with a persistent
westerly flow. The potential remains for significant accumulations.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some lingering MVFR pockets of 3k foot ceilings primarily over the
eastern TAF sites will lift overnight as high pressure builds in.
Winds will drop off simultaneously to light and variable. Higher
clouds will move in overnight/early Sunday morning in advance of
the next weather maker. At the time of this TAF forecast period
the only sites that could begin to see rain will be
MFD/TOL/FDY...but expect VFR ceilings/vsby at the onset. Have
introduced -ra to CLE`s extended TAF period as well. MVFR ceilings
will likely quickly develop after the rain starts and last into
OUTLOOK...Frequent non-VFR conditions...Sunday evening through
Monday evening...Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
Winds continue to decrease across the area this afternoon with high
pressure moving overhead...and will let the small craft advisory for
our PA waters off of Erie expire at 4pm. An active pattern will
continue with a number of systems to affect the lake this upcoming
week. With the high shifting east tonight winds will be southeast
Sunday but the passage of a trough will bring them around to the
west-southwest by Monday morning creating a choppy lake on the east
half. Low pressure will approach the Ohio Valley from the TX coast
on Tuesday. Guidance not zeroed in on a track...but general
consensus is to pass south of the lake. This will impact which
direction winds will shift around the dial. The cold air advection
will be gradual but the gradient will begin to tighten Thursday as
low pressure deepens along the New England coast. Lake effect snow
bands can be expected at this point.