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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221030
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored over the area through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Almost nothing will change in the atmosphere over the area thru Sat
so expect more of the same. Temps will stay well above normal with
highs getting near 90 in some spots while mostly clear skies and
light winds will allow lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Some end of the night patchy fog will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM/Saturday NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Well above normal temperatures continue into next week with a broad
ridge aloft. 500mb heights of 588dm extend north of the Great Lakes
Region. MOS guidance struggling with temperatures in this warm
pattern and went with more of continuity based temperature forecast
that is above guidance values. Lake breezes also expected each
afternoon that will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler
than inland sites. Some increase in high clouds possible by Monday
as the center of the ridge shifts towards New England.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Warm temperatures continue into Wednesday before the upper ridge
finally breaks down. A piece of energy lifts out of the western
trough and passes north of the Great Lakes region from Tuesday into
Wednesday. The associated cold front will weaken as it approaches
the area from the west late Wednesday with model spread increasing
beyond that point. The ECMWF pushes the front through quickly with
much colder air and a deeper trough aloft on Wednesday night.
Meanwhile the GFS is slower with the front and does not bring the
much cooler air in until a secondary push arrives Thursday night.
Will carry a chance of thunderstorms with the front on Wednesday
night for most areas with a blended approach for temperatures on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure will provide mainly clear skies through the period
with only patchy cirrus and sct afternoon cu. Some MVFR fog possible
around the 09-13Z timeframe, otherwise VFR conditions expected.
Winds will be light and variable, aside from another lake breeze
affecting KCLE and KERI this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday and maybe Sunday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Very good marine conditions will continue into next week. High
pressure starting off over the eastern Great Lakes today will expand
over the weekend. Land breezes will develop at night with lake
breezes and onshore flow each afternoon. Winds will generally be 10
knots or less through Tuesday with waves of 2 feet or less. A cold
front will cross the lake Wednesday night bringing a return to more
seasonal conditions to end next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...KEC