455
FXUS61 KCLE 031142
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
742 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough across the eastern Great Lakes will slide southeast this
morning. High pressure will build overhead tonight and move east off
the Mid-Atlantic coast through Saturday. Low pressure will track
northeast through the Great Lakes on Sunday, pulling a cold front
south late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will swing through the eastern Great Lakes
this morning and deepen across New England today. While the surface
trough may kick off an isolated shower or thunderstorm southeast of
a line from Warren to Meadville through early afternoon, areas
downwind of Lake Erie in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania are
generally expected to stabilize and remain dry. Weak surface
convergence will remain behind the trough from NW Ohio towards
Canton and this could be the focus for isolated showers or
thunderstorms through this afternoon. Surface based CAPE is
expected to range from 700-1000 J/kg along this axis with a
stray storm possible through about 10 PM this evening.
Temperatures will range from near 80 in NW Pennsylvania to upper
80s along the I-75 corridor today.

Surface high pressure expands overhead tonight and builds over New
York and Pennsylvania on Independence Day. Dewpoints are expected to
mix down into the 50s in some of our eastern counties while
remaining in the low to mid 60s towards NW Ohio and near Lake Erie.
The area will be primarily dry for the Holiday with the exception
being a low (20 percent) chance of a shower or thunderstorm for a
couple hours towards the Toledo area. Upper level ridge axis will
extend well north across the Upper Midwest with northwest flow and
moisture spilling around the ridge. Theta-e ridge reaches SE
Michigan and NW Ohio towards evening and high resolution models do
depict a few showers or thunderstorms along this boundary.
Probabilities of something reaching the Toledo area are low (around
20 percent) given dry air in the mid-levels but felt at least
an isolated mention should be included. The better focus for any
new activity will shift over Lake Erie through the evening as
the ridge builds eastward overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis builds overhead on Saturday with temperatures
climbing and a capping inversion developing. Temperatures at 700mb
reach 8-10C with 500mb heights of 592 dm. High temperatures will
range from mid 80s(far east) to low 90s(NW Ohio). Heat index values
will be hot again in the 90-98 degree range with lots of sun.
The heat should be considered for people planning outdoor
activities over the weekend.

Shortwave energy will round the ridge on Sunday, suppressing it
southward. At the surface, low pressure will track across lower
Michigan with a frontal boundary sinking south into NW Ohio
overnight. Temperatures are expected to be hot again with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values ranging from the low
to upper 90s. A chance of showers and thunderstorms spreads in from
the west Sunday afternoon and extends to near the I-71 corridor.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms expands overnight as the front
slowly shifts eastward. Sunday night will be warm and muggy with
moisture pooling along this boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Above mentioned frontal boundary will be draped overhead Monday
morning before shifting south through the day. At this time
scale it is hard to tell where the front will reside on Monday
morning and the degree of activity in our area before pushing
south. It seems the front is likely to be south of the area by
Tuesday morning and lowered pops with high pressure building
overhead. Minimal instability may remain across inland areas but
think chances of showers and thunderstorms are generally low
for Tuesday afternoon. Relief will be felt as temperatures trend
back down towards normal values. Models are hinting that
another trough will slide through the Great Lakes towards the
middle of next week signaling a return to a more active end to
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this
TAF period as high pressure begins to push towards the area.
Late this evening/early tonight, a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible, especially along and west of I-77 as
a weak cold front sags south across the area. Terminals impacted
by storms may briefly have visibilities reduced to MVFR and
possible IFR conditions briefly. After 00Z, chances of storms
quickly diminish and widespread VFR conditions will persist
through the overnight hours.

Light and variable winds will persist through mid-morning before
becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots through the evening. After
00Z tonight, winds will once again return to light and variable.

Outlook...VFR is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Non-
VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake Erie for
at least the next week with no marine headlines anticipated. A weak
cold front will sag south across the lake late today before high
pressure builds in on Friday. This high will slowly push off the
East Coast throughout the weekend before another system impacts the
area Monday. Through that entire time, variable winds of 5-10 knots
will impact all basins, resulting in waves 1 foot or less. Winds are
expected to increase to 10-15 knots from the southwest on Sunday
before turning to northwesterly on Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04