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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The local area will be located between low pressure over the Upper
Great Lakes and a ridge across the lower Ohio Valley today. A weak
cold front will move into the area tonight followed by a
stronger cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will move from
the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Closed upper level low will move into the Upper Great Lakes region
today. At the surface, southwest flow will increase as the area lies
between the broad area of low pressure to the northwest and a ridge
across the lower Ohio Valley. Subsidence will continue this morning
behind the departing showers from last night with skies becoming
mostly sunny for the morning. Mid-level moisture wraps in this
afternoon with cloud cover increasing but should keep moving so no
need to carry more than partly cloudy. Model soundings depict mixing
through at least 800mb which should help dewpoints to drop to
the lower 50s. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s to near
80 degrees today.

A minimal amount of instability will develop in northwest Ohio this
afternoon ahead of the front. Will continue with a low 20-30 chance
of showers and thunderstorms in NW Ohio by late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop along the cold front overnight. A little better
convergence across Lake Erie will provide a focus for a few
storms to develop and drift inland downwind of the lake. The
front and moisture will be a little slow to clear the eastern
counties so will hold onto a low chance pop during the day on
Tuesday. Although temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday behind
the front, raised highs a few degrees given partly cloudy skies
and the late May sun.

Upper level trough moves east across the area on Wednesday with
cooler air arriving behind a stronger front. Temperatures only
forecast to reach the upper 60s with scattered showers
developing ahead of the front cross the eastern half of the
area. Some thunderstorms will be possible as the upper level
cold pool approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Eastern half of the United States stuck in the eternal trough aloft
through much of the forecast period. A broad upper level ridge
begins to build east toward the area by the weekend.  This trend
means temperatures will remain on the cool side through the period.

Surface high pressure will build east across the area Thursday and
then move southeast where it will dissipate by Friday morning.  Low
pressure is progged to move east into the Tennessee valley region
Thursday and Friday.  This low in combination with another low
pressure over the northern Great Lakes will have a trough axis
extending north/south across the forecast area.  Moisture associated
with the trough axis will move east across the area late Thursday
night into Friday. Initially, there will be a threat for
thunderstorms but as cooler and more stable air moves south, the
threat for thunder will diminish in the latter periods. High
pressure will build south through the Great Lakes forcing a back
door cold front south through the area. This should bring drier air
to the northeast portions of the forecast area Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front slowly moving east toward the area. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will push east of the area over the next hour or
so. This should bring an end to the precipitation threat.
Ceilings will improve dramatically behind the front as well as
clearing skies push east. A trough of low pressure will rotate
east across the area this afternoon and there is a minimal
threat for thunderstorms to develop with this trough. So, will
mention a VCTS this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR at times through Thursday in
showers/thunderstorms as an upper level trough persists over the
central Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake winds should not be too strong today but will likely see 2 to 4
foot waves along the nearshore waters after the passage of the cold
front this morning.  A trough/weak cold front axis will move
southeast across the area later tonight.  Not expecting small craft
advisory criteria for an extended period of time today.  So will
hold off on issuing for today.  Winds will diminish tonight and then
pick back up again Tuesday out of the southwest. Wind direction
through Friday will remain a persistent southwest but also be
variable from very light to around 10 to 15 knots through the
period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy