Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020147
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH GETTING THICKER
A BIT FASTER. WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET CONCERNED ABOUT A DECENT
SIZED AREA OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS TAKE MUCH
LONGER TO DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE BEFORE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. SO WITH THAT SAID WE HAVE INCREASED
THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THEN MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE. THE
AIRMASS IS MOIST EAST OF MANSFIELD...HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AND FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
WHILE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AN INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. MENTIONED PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY AREA. LOWS ARE TOUGH DEPENDING ON
THE CLOUD COVER...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY THURSDAY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. WILL TRY TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THIS TIME GOING WITH A FROPA AT TOL AT 19Z/3PM...00Z 7 PM AT CLE
AND 03Z/11 PM AT ERI.

ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE THE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY GOES
ON. IN SOME WAYS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDER
WILL BE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER...THE THUNDER
MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...SOME LOCATIONS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN...MOST WILL BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY DRY NOT EXCEPTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLOODING ISSUES.

PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGHS
BUT DID GO WITH WARMER VALUES IN THE EAST BECAUSE IT WILL REMAIN
DRIER LONGER. DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FROST IF THE CLOUDS
DECREASE...MAINLY INLAND OF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE AREA
AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON THEN WHETHER THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TUE THRU WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER
SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SHRA AND COOL TEMPS SUN WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHRA SUN NIGHT THRU MON.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR TUE AND WED. WILL STAY
WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR MAINLY THE NE ON TUE THEN BACK TO SLIGHT CHC
FOR WED. TEMPS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN BY WED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
OF 10 DEG C AT 850 MB.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG.
DIFFICULTY WITH THE FORECAST IS HOW LARGE AN AREA WILL GET IFR
FOG. AT THIS POINT HAVE LIMITED THE IFR FOG TO INLAND LOCATIONS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY THEN IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST. ALTHOUGH AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO
THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR
LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING...NE TO E WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
SOUTH THEN START INCREASING THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO EVENTUALLY A SCA
WILL BE NEEDED. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER FRI WILL TURN
THE WINDS TO WSW AND SPEEDS UP TO 30 KNOTS LOOK REASONABLE LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE LATER SAT BUT MAY
STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SCA WAVES GOING THRU SUN. A TROUGH MOVING
THRU THE LAKES AROUND MON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BACKING OF THE
WINDS LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS





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