Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND
MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO NRN OHIO WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR MOISTURE AND THE EVER SO SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INLAND. WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT INLAND AT A MINIMUM TODAY. HAVE HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY THEY WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL STILL
HANG ON TO A VARIABLY CLOUDY NIGHT. EXPECT A NIGHT WHERE THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME STRATUS DRIFTING AROUND.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH
REMAINS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME A TAD MORE
UNSTABLE. STILL THOUGH COVERAGE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ADD ON A
FEW MORE DEGREES ON TO HIGHS AND GO NEAR 80 FOR MOST.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL
DIFFICULT. IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW US ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S/CANADA BORDER AND GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS AGREE ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
FLOW WORKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
SAME TIME...FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST STILL READS FAIRLY
GENERIC UNTIL THIS CAN BECOME CLEARER. AGAIN SEASONABLY MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE CONTROLLING FORCE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE ENDED
THE WORK WEEK WITH. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WOULD BE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY A SW TROF WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS POSITIONED TO DIVE
SE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE WAVELENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE TROF BY
MONDAY...WHICH DEGRADES FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. BEST APPROACH IS TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SURROUNDING OFFICES UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS KICK THE 500 MB LW
TROF AXIS DOWNSTREAM AND THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE. UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THINGS SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70`S...BUT GIVEN THE SETUP
MAY HAVE TO TREND LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING E-NE FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW VFR/MVFR
STRATUS DECK TO MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING MVFR VISBYS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WAVES INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE AS THE
WIND INCREASES FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY SUNDAY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST
AND WAVES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MAYERS


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