Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
652 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes.
The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday
then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night. A strong low
will cut across the central Great Lakes Friday night forcing a
strong cold front across the forecast area.


Few lingering showers across Central Ohio may push into SERN portion
of forecast area this morning so will keep isolated showers going
there for this morning. Think clouds will be a little slower to
erode so "lowered" high temps to the lower to mid 60s...which
is roughly 25+ degrees above normal. Tol and Yng will approach
the record highs for today of 66 and 64 respectively. Record
highs for rest of forecast area from upper 60s to lower 70s so
those records still appear safe. Dense fog remains across
Michigan and NW IL. However believe cloud shield will remain
over NW OH this morning so do not expect dense fog to develop.


Little change in the short term forecast.   Models track low
pressure currently over Lake Superior...East across the Great Lakes.
A very weak cool front will make its way into northern portions of
the CWA Thursday morning. It will stall out somewhere across
northern Ohio before lifting back north as a warm front Thursday
night.   Expect a few showers to develop with the best chances near
Lake Erie.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures soaring
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.   But change is on the way.  Models
continue to track strong low pressure system across the Central
Lakes Friday night...dragging a strong cold front across the
forecast area.  Model timing a little slower today...but still
potential for a few strong to severe storms NW OH Friday
evening. The low cape high shear environment would support
damaging winds.

Much colder air behind the front will plunge temps to near normal
for the weekend.


Volatile weather pattern will continue during the extended portion
of the forecast with near normal temperatures on Sunday returning to
well above normal values by Tuesday. Long range models vary with
respect to how fast the ridge can build overhead on Sunday which
will have an impact on coverage of snow showers downwind of Lake
Erie. The airmass will trend drier during the day before moisture
arrives with the passage of the next shortwave on Sunday night. This
should cause an increase in snow showers but still too much spread
in the details to have much confidence in potential for
accumulating snow.

After that a warming trend will resume as southwesterly flow
develops ahead of a trough taking shape over the western United
States. Moisture will advect north towards the area with increasing
chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.


.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR clouds are expanding across northwest and north central Ohio
while mid-level clouds and a few showers remain in northeast
Ohio. Mid-clouds are clearing from the west and visibilities may
drop to a mile or two at FDY if this occurs before lower clouds
thicken. Otherwise expect MVFR clouds around 2500 feet to expand
to all terminals by late morning. Clouds will linger through the
day but may briefly improve to VFR before lowering again
overnight. IFR ceilings will develop at many sites after 08Z as
low pressure approaches from the west.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues Thursday/Thursday night then returns
again on Saturday.


Southwest winds near 10 knots will continue today. Low pressure will
approach the Great Lakes from the west this evening with southwest
winds increasing to 10-20 knots overnight. As this system continues
to the east into Thursday a weak cold front will settle south across
the lake with waves building to 2 to 4 feet.

A stronger low pressure system will track out of the Plains on
Friday. Easterly winds will increase to 10-20 knots on Friday
morning then shift around to the south as a warm front lifts north
across the lake. Winds will increase out of the southwest with the
passage of a cold front Friday night into Saturday and Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed on the lake, continuing into Sunday
on the eastern half.




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