523
FXUS61 KCLE 090152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
952 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region
late tonight into Thursday. Unsettled weather will persist
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:50 PM Update:
Only minor adjustments needed to the forecast. Slowed down the
onset of POPs a bit. The exact coverage of showers very late
tonight through Thursday morning remains somewhat uncertain,
especially across North Central and Northeast OH. As mentioned
below, forcing isn`t very strong through Thursday morning and
there will be relatively dry northeast low-level flow in place.
However, some models (such as the 3km NAM) have rather
widespread rain Thursday morning. Recent HRRR runs have trended
towards filling in more showers across most of North Central and
Northeast OH. Still feel the greatest shower potential overall
will spread from west to east from around midday through the
early evening, though did increase POPs just a bit Thursday
morning across North Central and Northeast Ohio. Hit everyone
with a categorical (80%+) POP at some point Thursday afternoon
or early evening with most areas peaking at 90-100%, as there`s
decent agreement everyone will see measurable rain at some
point in the afternoon or early evening.

High pressure has allowed for a period of dry weather today. It
was a bit breezy this afternoon with wind gusts around 25 mph,
though expecting these gusts to diminish around sunset tonight.
As the high exits the region tonight a warm front lifts
northeastward and will allow for high level clouds to begin to
filter in tonight. Confidence in shower coverage early tomorrow
morning along the front has decreased since the last forecast
update as frontogenesis and upper level support has backed off
slightly. The better chance for widespread rain showers and
embedded thunder comes late Thursday morning and early afternoon
as the parent low glides east across Northern Ohio. This low
will take its time exiting the region and will keep rain chances
in the forecast through the end of the period. Can`t rule out
some nuisance flooding with any pockets of heavier rainfall
through the end of the week, but overall impacts should be
minimal.

Slightly above normal overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s for
most, upper 40s to lower 50s in Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs
tomorrow will be cooler as they will rise into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Near normal overnight lows Thursday night in the
mid/upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead.
Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on
Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that
trough departs to the east. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure very briefly builds in Friday night before another upper-
level trough and associated surface low move southeast across the
Great Lakes region. Periods of rain showers are expected through the
day Saturday, with mean QPF around 0.25" (some spots lower, other
areas as high as 0.5"). Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated to scattered rain
showers may linger into Saturday night, mainly for the eastern part
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be below normal through the
short term period with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad weak upper-level ridging builds in, although several weak
upper-level shortwaves move across the area through the week,
resulting in low PoPs maintaining through the long term period.
Temperatures gradually warm up through the week with highs in the
low 70s increasing to mid-upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR will continue through early Thursday. Thursday morning will
see a warm front will lift out of central OH, though it likely
won`t quite reach FDY/MFD/CAK. During the afternoon and evening
on Thursday this front will begin sinking back southeast as low
pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. An initial push of
showers will try pushing in ahead of the warm front late tonight
into early Thursday, though this activity will be fairly
hit/miss and light so not expecting many restrictions with the
showers. Handled with a VCSH mention where needed. A period of
MVFR ceilings may still develop north of the warm front Thursday
morning, though dry northeasterly flow will try to counteract
it. Limited any MVFR ceilings Thursday morning and afternoon to
TOL, FDY and MFD, and even at these sites only prevail them for
a few hours. Can`t rule out brief MVFR at CAK either but
confidence is lower. Showers will become more numerous and a bit
more intense from west to east later Thursday morning into the
afternoon. The greatest potential for vsby restrictions will be
at CAK and YNG, where there`s also a low risk of thunder
Thursday afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, some additional
non-VFR ceilings may begin developing near or just after the
end of the current TAF period Thursday evening.

West-northwest winds are subsiding to less than 7 knots this
evening. Winds will turn northeast overnight at 5 to 10 knots
and continue through Thursday. Locations along the lakeshore
(including TOL/CLE/ERI) may see stronger northeasterly winds
increase to 12-15 knots accompanied by gusts 20-25 knots
Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers and lower clouds
Thursday night into Friday morning. Non-VFR possible in showers
and storms Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern Missouri gradually moves east tonight and
tomorrow across the Ohio Valley, with easterly winds strengthening
to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. As the low moves east
towards the mid-Atlantic region, winds gradually veer to northeast,
north and northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds of up
to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet will result in a small craft
advisory for this period for all of our Lake Erie nearshore waters.

Another weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. There could be periods of stronger winds to 15 knots, but
it`s a low chance of small craft advisory at this point. The wind
and wave forecast looks to be mild Sunday onward as there will
be no strong low of high pressure systems.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders