Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AGAIN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION OVER INDIANA APPEARS TO BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FORCING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR. STARTING TO SEE SOME
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IN THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA AND FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS SHOW DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A LOOK AT THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...WE ONLY REACH ABOUT 99 DEGREES AND AT THIS TIME SHOULD
NOT NEED A HEAT ADVISORY. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT.

FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY FOR
HIGHS MOST AREAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER TODAY.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. QUESTION IS WHERE THE LINE DEVELOPS. DOES
IT OCCUR WITH THE FRONT OR DO WE SEE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. LEANING TOWARD
EXPANDING A CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR TODAY
SINCE MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MARCH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIP EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL AND
EXPECTING HIGHS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AND LOWS IN THE 60S AS HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ALOFT BACK TO
THE  GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK AS TENDS TO BE THE CASE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
SINCE THERE ARE OFTEN TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FASTER FLOW. EVEN
WEAK FEATURES SUCH AS A SURFACE TROUGH CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
A STRONGER FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MENTION AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING ON SUNDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY TREND
BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE JET IS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
DECENT CAPE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT SO THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC FORCING FOR A SCATTERED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST TEMPO THUNDER AT KTOL AND KFDY AND
"VICINITY" FOR KCLE KMFD AND KCAK. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY GET TO KYNG AND KERI. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A LAKE
BREEZE AT KCLE THIS AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY THERE IS ENOUGH SOUTH
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE
BREEZE BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK TODAY. A LAKE BREEZE WIND
SHIFT SEEMS LIKELY AT KERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE
RATHER STRONG AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND TROUGHS SLIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A DECENT
BREEZE ON THE LAKE ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND
WAVES MAY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AND THE WEATHER
EACH DAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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