Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250243
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
943 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area Saturday morning. High
pressure will build southeast across the Tennessee Valley region by
Sunday morning. Low pressure will move southeast across the central
Great Lakes to southern Ontario Canada by Sunday night.  A ridge of
high pressure will build east across the local area by Monday
morning and off the east coast Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thicker high cloud is moving east across the area but additional
breaks are expected overnight before the lower cloud fills in
along the front early Saturday. Southerly winds will be breezy
overnight and raised mins a degree or two most areas given that
the boundary layer will remain well mixed. Dewpoints range from
the lower 20s to lower 30s across the area with very dry air
observed on both the 00Z ILN and PBZ soundings. Any light
precipitation still expected to hold off until Saturday.

Previous discussion... Models all indicating cold front will
move through the area Saturday morning and remain fairly dry due
to the point of origin of the front from the northwest
territories of western Canada. Since moisture will be limited
with the front, only expecting a minimal chance for showers in
the eastern half of the forecast area and probably only
sprinkles in the western half of the area.

In the mean time, expecting clouds to gradually move east into the
forecast area overnight tonight. Clouds will lower as well with
time.  Initially, the gradient will be relatively tight, especially
in the western half of the forecast area this evening.  Winds of 15
to 25 MPH can be expected ahead of the cold front over the western
half of the area and 10 to 20 MPH in the eastern half.  Winds should
diminish toward morning with the frontal passage and then increase
again after frontal passage to 15 to 25 knots.

Low temperatures tonight should drop off into the lower 40s all
areas except upper 30s over inland northwest Pennsylvania. After
frontal passage, expecting highs to reach into the middle 40s
Saturday.  Air mass behind the front is not all that cold.  However,
lows will dip back into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The inversion is progged to be lowering to about 4k by Sunday
morning but with 850 mb temperatures progged about -10C, will
mention snow showers/flurries spilling into Sunday morning in the
snowbelt, mainly NW PA. Otherwise winds will begin to back and with
warm advection we should see sunshine spread across the forecast
area. High clouds may increase in the afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures should range from the mid 40s NW OH to the upper 30s in
inland NW PA.

A very weak cold front/trough will slide by to the north Sunday
night. Little low level moisture is progged, 850 mb temperatures are
not that cold and ridging is increasing from the west. Will keep the
forecast dry. Lows Sunday night will depend on how much the breeze
lets up and how clear the skies are. Will forecast upper 20s to the
mid 30s as a middle of the road estimate.

Ridging and increasing warm advection ahead of the next cold front
should make for a mild stretch of weather Monday into Tuesday.
Temperatures on Monday should recover well into the 40s/around 50.
The ECMWF is a bit faster with the next front but based on the
average frontal timing among models, will not mention any showers on
Tuesday. Based strictly on 850 mb temps we potentially could see the
lower 60s on Tuesday. Will be conservative for now since clouds will
be increasing later in the day and forecast mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front should be pushing across the area Tue night.
Moisture is limited so only going for slgt chc pops and temps should
stay warm enough for just rain. Wed should mainly be a dry day then
moisture will be returning Wed night into Thu in response to an
approaching upper trough and cold front front moving into the area.
The models still differ some so will run with only chc pops and
temps will stay warm enough for rain until maybe late Thu night.
Precip should be shifting into the east half of the cwa for Fri and
may be done completely by Fri night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Most locations will experience breezy southwest winds overnight
with gusts of 20-25 knots. Did include a mention of low level
wind sheer at CAK/YNG where surface winds will be lighter while
winds near 2000 feet increase to around 45 knots overnight.
Sct-bkn high clouds will lower to around 1500-2000 feet towards
morning as a cold front moves through the area. Can not rule out
IFR conditions at some of the eastern terminals but think MVFR
ceilings will be the prevailing. Moisture along the front is
limited but scattered light showers are possible. Winds will
shift from southwest to northwest with the passage of the cold
front and become gusty again on Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR Saturday night through Sunday night northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW winds will continue to increase the first half of tonight as the
low level jet moves across the eastern Great Lakes ahead of a weak
cold front. Winds will shift to WNW behind the front on Saturday and
the higher waves will come back to the nearshore waters on the south
shore of Lake Erie.

The weather into next week will be much of the same, with regular
weak cold fronts and winds shifting back to SSW, the veering WNW
after each weak front. The fronts will be weak with regard to
temperature but there will be a decent pressure gradient accompanying
each front. Small craft advisories will be needed much of the time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...KEC/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kosarik



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