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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
601 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG IT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPEAR ALOFT FIRST AND THEN START REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER DAYBREAK. IT WILL START AS SNOW AND THEN GO TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. THE TIMING OF GOING TO RAIN
IS IN QUESTION. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH. THE GUIDANCE IS
NOT DOING GOOD AT THIS TIME...TRIED TO ADJUST THEM. WILL TRY TO
HAVE THE ADVISORY START WHEN THE SNOW STARTS. AT LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND THE TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE QUICKER
THAN IN THE NORTH...THUS LESS SNOWFALL. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORY. EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME OVER NE OH AS THE GROUND IS
COLD AND THE DEW POINTS ARE LOW...IT WILL TAKE TIME TO FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO QUIT FREEZING. THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE THAT HEAVY
BUT UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE SLIPPERY.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TO START AND THEN START DECREASING AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT GETS INTERESTING MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAISED POPS SOME BUT IT IS NOT TOTALLY
CLEAR CUT HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST AS
THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUT THE LAKE
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 20C.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING IN.

EXPECTING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER HALF AN INCH AND WITH
SUCH A BRIEF WARM UP SOME SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE MAY OCCUR IN THE NARROWER RIVERS AND
STREAMS...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ICE JAM FLOODING. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A BAND OF MOISTURE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT PRECIP AND TEMPS MAY
STAY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW TO OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR SUN BUT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING IN BY MON
MORNING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS STILL
SHOW GOOD MOISTURE NEAR LAKE ERIE SO WILL CARRY SMALL CHC POPS THERE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SNOW...THEN SLEET AND FZRA TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON THEN CHANGE TO JUST RAIN AS TEMP WARM
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO BE TAPERING OFF AT THE SAME TIME. THINK
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN THE MIXED PRECIP THEN IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY WHILE
BECOMING SW. SOME LLWS MAY OCCUR EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON UNTIL
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP LATER ON WED FOR
MFD...CAK YNG AND MAYBE ERI AND CONTINUE WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN
IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING WHILE
TURNING SW THEN W OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UNTIL THU NIGHT TO MOVE ACROSS OH SO
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WED THRU THU THEN BACK TO SW FOR FRI.
THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME FOR SAT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>033-038-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-
     047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS