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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231028
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 6 AM WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NEAR
TOLEDO AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND HAD INITIATED A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE MORE RECENT
HRRR RUNS...HAVE TAKEN THIS LINE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHILE
ALLOWING IT TO WEAKEN. MAY HAVE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS..AND THEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL HAVE HIGHS
TODAY IN THE 70S. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ONLY MAE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS EARLY
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY
6 PM TONIGHT. WILL GET GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL
GET BACK INTO THE 50S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL THIS SUMMER...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

WEEKEND LEFT UNSETTLED...ALTHOUGH NOT A WASHOUT. WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED BROAD BRUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHS SATURDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST DAY. THE SHOWERS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR SLIDING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND THIS WARMER AIR COULD BRUSH
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SO THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT THE ACTUAL TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE OR BELOW THAT DEPENDING ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT COOL DOWN
SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70 IF IT IS
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER BY TUESDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 6C. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING ON THE OUT FLOW FROM THE
EARLIER STORMS IN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTUAL FRONT
WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE AND WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING AT
INLAND TAF SITES KMFD KCAK AND KYNG AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/STORMS BUT WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NW TO
SE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS INITIALLY AND
THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY AT TIMES TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS
AND WAVES TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE RISES SHOULD BOOST THE NORTH WINDS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS OR
SO. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK