Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SWATH OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PULLED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF ILX SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN
THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THIS DEEPER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THIS NOW
RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR 700MB AND THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MAY CAUSE SOME EVAPORATION INITIALLY. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO RESIDE ON THE SE FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WILL CARRY A
HIGH POP FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY
CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS(BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL OHIO).
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOLEDO AROUND NOON...CLEVELAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND YOUNGSTOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...THE FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR SE TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON HEATING/INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT
CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM IF HEATING IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. LEFT A LOW
POP BOTH OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR A PORTION
OF THE NIGHT. INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD
SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE AIRMASS DOES NOT COOL MUCH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE HUMIDITY WHICH
WILL BE LOWER AND MORE PLEASANT WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
MAINLY JUST SCATTERED CU ON WEDNESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUDS BURN
OFF.

HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD
STILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO STAY DRY.
LEFT THE 20 POP IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DOES
START TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOWERED POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS MAKING A RUN AT THE
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DONT THINK THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY HOWEVER
AS THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY.  TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AFTER AN
ABOVE NORMAL END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST NR A KFNT-KSBN LINE. FROM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION FROM INDIANA
TRACKING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OHIO. WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDER
INTO NRN OHIO BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FAR NRN TAFS. HRRR MOVES
THIS PRECIP THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE PRECIP...LIFTING TO VFR 2
TO 4 HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS. EXPECT THE EVENING WILL BEGIN VFR
HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DRYING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL BEGIN TODAY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY EAST OF
CONNEAUT BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST JUST BELOW. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE IN
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO BRIEFLY
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND A LOW WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN SETUP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CLOSE...NO NEAR TERM
HEADLINES FOR NOW.  FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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