Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211757
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1257 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE IN NW OHIO WHILE CLEARING LINE HAS
MOSTLY STALLED JUST WEST OF HOLMES/WAYNE/MEDINA COUNTIES. A
SHALLOW CU FIELD DID DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT CLEARED OUT BUT THESE
CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT QUICKLY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT. SLOWED THE CLEARING TREND IN NE OH/NW PA GIVEN THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SUSPECT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK
TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE DOWNSLOPING TO HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS AND SPEED
UP THE EROSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 30S
TODAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO COULD GET CLOSER
TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
I WAS HOPING THE MODELS WOULD BEGIN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT ONCE AGAIN I AM DISAPPOINTED. THE NEW GFS APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER TODAY AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED. THE ECMWF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
HAVE ONLY BEEN MARGINALLY MORE CONSISTENT. THE BEST GUESS FOR TODAY
IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS OCCURS. NW PA COULD REALISTICALLY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH SUNSET ON TUESDAY. WILL RAMP PRECIP CHANCES UP TO THE
CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY GET GOING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS
REACHING 50 DEGREES MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
LATEST BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE A LOW MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING 8 TO 10 DEGREES OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z WITH ANOTHER 5 OR
6 DEGREE DROP OFF BY 12Z THURSDAY. CRITICAL THICKNESSES REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SO WILL JUST GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD
OCCUR ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS AS ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STILL
WARM FROM TWO DAYS IN THE 50S. WILL END UP GOING WITH MORNING
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AS IT DID EARLIER AS
THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU USE...BY 12Z THURSDAY ALL PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.  BOTH MODELS QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTER THIS MODELS DIVERGE.  ECMWF DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW WHICH
TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH SLOWER PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS BRINGING IN CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE. THE CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS OVER NW OHIO WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND BECOME VFR LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL
BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BUT CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LAKE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
BY MID WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN LAKES DRIFTING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY.  AS IT DOES THE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.  AFTER THAT THINGS NOT SO
CLEAR.  ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK LOW NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
WEDNESDAY WHILE GFS BACKS OFF NOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LOW IS
WEAKER IN BOTH MODELS TODAY THAN YDY SO ONLY HAVE WINDS FORECAST TO
30 KNOTS...BUT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR GALES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB










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