Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OHIO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
CU DEVELOPING WEST QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. THE SOLID DECK ACROSS NERN
OHIO AND NWRN PA IS BREAKING AND LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE AS WELL
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OVERCAST. HAVE SLOWED
THE RATE OF CLOUD DECREASE THERE. ALSO CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. USUALLY DISSIPATION IS SEEN
FROM DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT OCCURRING AND AM CONCERNED
NOW THAT SOME OF THIS COULD GET INTO NWRN OHIO. THE LEADING EDGE
IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS LOCATED FROM
EASTERN ERIE COUNTY OHIO NORTHEASTWARD TO NW PA. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE MOST OF THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE
FLOW IS ALSO OCCURRING. SO A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY
ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING
THE DRIER AIR WILL MORE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST
OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT
CAN OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 70S...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. AS IT DOES LIFT INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND FLOW. SO INITIALLY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HINDERED BY THE DRIER AIR. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AND ATTEMPT TO INCREASE THE LIFT OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA
COME MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT EITHER
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. TOWARD MID WEEK LEANING
TOWARD A RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ANY TROPICAL RELATED ACTIVITY STAYING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE HAVE NON MENTIONABLE POPS /20
PERCENT/ FOR EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO TUESDAY. DRY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE THE RIDGE AND ONLY LIMITED CU OR HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS BROUGHT BROKEN MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT CLEARING FOR NEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST.
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AT SUNSET.
SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT MFD...CAK...AND YNG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS AT TOL AND FDY AND SE WINDS AT CLE AND ERI SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. TYPICAL
VFR DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE SETTING UP AT CLE AND ERI AROUND
16Z.

OUTLOOK...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL START TODAY...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO RELAX EVEN
MORE AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL TEND TO BE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND STILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO WEAK THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EVEN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...ADAMS/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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