Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270844
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE
NEXT CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS STALLED...EVEN RETROGRADING A BIT...WHILE THE
EAST COAST STORM DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE PRETTY MUCH ALL
DAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
TO THE WEST. THERE WAS ALSO A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NW OHIO ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. A BATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS AND LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS STILL OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SNOW FROM THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST BUT
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ANYTIME TODAY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...MOSTLY JUST
DUSTINGS...BUT SOME AREAS AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE... MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD IN. CLEARING SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WHERE IT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM BUT THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE THREE SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAKES ME THINK
THAT THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS SIMPLE AS JUST A CLIPPER CROSSING
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY ENOUGH IT
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY TO UPPER SANDUSKY AND MARION. SNOW IS A BETTER
BET NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SO THAT WE MAY WELL SEE RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AFTER FROPA.
WE MAY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IF THE
PRECIP STAYS ALL SNOW BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND MAKE THE
SPECIFIC PREDICTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
FOR FRI. A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN SEEMS LIKELY THAT SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN JUST IN
TIME FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLY
AROUND ZERO IN PLACES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY STARTING SAT AND
CONTINUING INTO MON. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DRAWING A LOW OUT OF TEXAS THAT
MOVES NE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORM BUT THE ECMWF TRACKS TO LOW TOO FAR TO THE SE OF THE AREA
FOR HEAVY SNOW HERE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS STARTING
LATE SAT NIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING INTO MON BUT
ALLOWING THE THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE EAST BY MON. MORE ARCTIC
EXPECTED TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM...STARTING ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST TO NW PA
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR TO COME AND GO WITH CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 1K FEET. WHILE CIGS ARE VFR FOR NW OHIO...VSBYS MAY
DIP INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOT
LOOKING AS LIKELY TO GET THE LOWER CEILINGS BACK INTO NW OHIO.
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR CLE/CAK/YNG WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE.
ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES EAST TO WEST
FROM NW PA AND THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BEFORE DISSIPATING. IFR
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

.OUTLOOK...SOME LINGERING NON-VFR TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NWRN PA. NON-VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE TO NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER OH. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THU
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FOR THU NIGHT WITH SPEEDS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD
LEAD TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS. THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ON SAT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS





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