Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA
AND A PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THROUGH 1 AM EST. WE DID HAVE
A REPORT OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
THE CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION...A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN DID NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN THE OHIO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...THE
LOWER CLOUDS NEAR AKRON AND YOUNGSTOWN MAY DECREASE BUT SOME THICK
CIRRUS WAS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE EAST COAST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON THE
CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE SKY COVER WORDING FOR NW OHIO. IT SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NW PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY. NO
CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OUT OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST LAKESHORE THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT AND SOME LIGHT LIFT...BEFORE DRYING UP WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES TO START ARE WARM AND THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR DRIZZLE. IF THERE IS STILL PRECIP ONGOING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THEN WE MAY END UP HAVING SOME
VERY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
THE CAPE AND A CLIPPER UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES. USUALLY
MOISTURE FROM AND EAST COAST SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLEAR OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AND
JUST ADD A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
30S FOR HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/LAKES TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT ITS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF QPF.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO/NW OHIO. SOME ACCUMULATION FOR THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H8 TEMPS GET AS COLD AS -12C. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND WILL JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. NO
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL ONLY 30S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. WOULD NOT BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT I DOUBT THERE WOULD BE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD
BE RAIN OR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE ODDS FOR SHOWERS WOULD SEEM TO SLOWLY
INCREASE BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING ON THE SUNDAY
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WARM AND
SHOWERY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IT COULD TURN INTO A CHILLY RAIN
IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH QUICKLY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 50.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR
THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN. TEMPS MAY NOT GET NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS SO WILL JUST CALL IT SHOWERS FOR
SIMPLICITY.

COOLER MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TEMPS. ALWAYS HAVE TO FAVOR CLOUDS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STUCK CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE TEMPS. KEPT IT
DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVC015-030 TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL ERODE SOME IN THE WEST TOMORROW BUT
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
TURN TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED STUBBORNLY STRONG OVER THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH BUT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN THE WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
SOUTH BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
AGAIN...AT LEAST FROM AROUND AVON POINT EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THE FLOW WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. A BRISK SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY ON THE LAKE BY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE LARGER WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LAKE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KOSARIK





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