Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 162335
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
635 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move east across the area tonight.
High pressure will build southeast toward the deep south and extend
a ridge north into the local area by Thursday. The high will be the
dominating weather feature across the area through Thursday.  A weak
trough will swing east across the area Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lowered temps several degrees for the 630 update. Would have
dropped more, but winds will stay up all night and expect
clouds to move in overnight to help keep temps from tanking.

Original discussion...
A surface trough will slide east across the area as a reflection of
the upper level trough.  The upper level trough will remain
positively tilted as it moves to the east coast Wednesday night.

Flow should remain fairly well aligned overnight for some lake
effect snow showers to continue along the lake shore of Erie county
Pennsylvania.  Snow is expected to be light.  Another area of snow
will slide into northwest Ohio in advance of the surface trough.
Moisture streaming northeast continues to place Youngstown in an
area of light snow or flurries.  This is basically ending during the
evening hours.

As trough swings through tonight, the rest of the forecast period
looks to be dry as high pressure begins to dominate the local area.

Cold pool of arctic air will slide east across the local area
tonight but will begin to modify slightly.  Therefore, I am
anticipating low temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer
tonight compared to this morning. As high pressure takes over, we
should start to see a gradual warming trend starting tomorrow. Highs
tomorrow should be about 10 degrees warmer than today. 850 mb
temperatures start to flirt with the 0 degree C mark by Wednesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave will brush far northeastern OH
Thursday evening into Friday morning bringing a slight chance of
snow showers to Erie county PA early Friday morning.
Otherwise...Upper level high pressure will build over the area
Thursday night into at least the first part of the weekend. This
will result in a warming trend across the forecast area...with
daytime high temperatures just above freezing Friday afternoon.
By Saturday...temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid
40s...around 6 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Light rain returns as early as Saturday afternoon as a warm front
lifts north across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday night with models in agreement showing
a surface high a cross the southeastern states and low pressure in
the central Plains. Mild southerly flow will be across the Ohio
Valley between these two systems. With this overrunning flow out of
the deep south would expect sufficient moisture will be in the area
for clouds so will have with mostly cloudy skies Saturday night.
Will only have a low chance pop given lack of any stronger forcing.
Sunday models diverge on moisture with the ECMWF remaining drier
while the GFS would support at least chance pops with a warm front
in the area. Will side closer to the GFS here and have chance pops
for the day. Sunday night models bring a cold front into the area
from the west ahead of a deepening low in the upper midwest. May not
be a lot occurring in the evening but the front comes in after
midnight so will continue with likely pops west half. On Monday will
have likely pops east as the front continues east.  By afternoon
models show wrap around moisture back into the northwest so will
have likely pops there as well.  Precip should be mostly rain but
could begin to see a change late afternoon northwest so will have a
mix. Will continue a mix everywhere Monday evening then turn precip
to snow as it ends overnight. Tuesday looks dry. Sunday and Monday
temps above normal however temps will be dropping during the
afternoon on Monday. Tuesday looks close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Trough will swing across forecast area overnight. Expect MVFR
cigs to develop with a few flurries.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will generally remain at or below 10 kts
through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon surface high
pressure will strengthen over AR with deep surface low pressure
north into Canada resulting in an increase in southwest winds. Winds
will remain between 15 and just over 20 kts through at least
Saturday morning as surface pressure gradient remain tight across
the region. Winds will begin to subside Saturday morning and become
more southerly by Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...DJB/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Riley



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