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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS
AND ECMWF.

IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.

FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
NEW YORK STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WILL
COME OFF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND BY MIDDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN BY EVENING

.OUTLOOK...VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.

AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA